Kasper Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said: I don't know if I remember the year accurately but in the 2010's we had a similar overrunning event like this initially MRX forecast 2-5" for central valley and 1-2 southern valley, 3-6 for plateau, northeast & mountains. As the event unfolded it way way over performed in ratios and energy including a lee low. As the night dragged on they kept updating the totals until most everyone was forecast 10"-12" even southern valley. I ended that storm at 10". There are definitely times we score well beyond initial forecast in these setups. Though for every over score we probably have 2 busts. You’re are correct I remember that event well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Good luck everyone, it's been a while. I'm more optimistic seeing JKL cave. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Models tend to under model artic air, also it's been very rare in my experience for a system to start as snow for several hours then go to mix, granted it is East Tennessee and I've seen stranger things happen, I just have a hard time believing there will be any mixing issues for most of the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 I believe this is the HRRR showing downsloping off Cross Mtn that affects things all the way into SW Va. Cross Mtn is 3300-3534ft in the area just left of the arrow start, and it quickly drops to around 1000 feet straight up the heart of Norris Lake there, though the lake is surrounded by 1300-1600ft ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 looks like the 18z nam has dropped south from recent runs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18z hrr Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk The ice in some areas is the precip ending as freezing drizzle as moisture falls below the DGZ. It happens fairly often in big snows but I don't recall seeing it in powdery snows. The sounding does say "best guess p-type as freezing drizzle in my area but I think the model is having issues, as two skew-t's within a mile or so of each other in my area are vastly different in the upper levels regarding temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 I can already tell the 18z 3k NAM is going to go for 12-16 inches over Cross Mtn like it did at 12z. It's like a crazy ensemble member that skews the mean in how it skews the NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe this is the HRRR showing downsloping off Cross Mtn that affects things all the way into SW Va. Cross Mtn is 3300-3534ft and it quickly drops to around 1000 feet straight up the heart of Norris Lake there, though the lake is surrounded by 1300-1600ft ridges. You've even got a bit of downslope off the Crab Orchard mts indicated there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 National Weather Service Nashville TN 138 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 No major changes will be made to the forecast for the very cold and snowy weather coming our way. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place area-wide from 6 PM today until 6 am Tuesday. Snow was already crossing the Ms River early this afternoon. Short range models show the snow spreading rapidly eastward into our area late this afternoon and evening. Snowflakes should start to fall in our western counties by 4 or 5 PM. By midnight, the ground will likely be covered for most areas along and west of I-65 with an inch of fresh powder, and up to 2 inches for some spots. By daybreak Monday, much of the Mid State will have snow cover, averaging 1 to 3 inches. Then, the second main wave will move across the area late Monday morning through afternoon with the greatest additional accumulations focused along a band from Waynesboro and Lawrenceburg northeast to Crossville and Jamestown. Models have become as agreeable and consistent as we can hope for with winter wx in our region. We are still expecting all snow with event totals averaging 1 to 3 inches over our northwest counties and 4 to 7 inches across our southern and Plateau counties. Areas around Clarksville could come up a little short, especially with the second wave tomorrow falling mostly south of I-40. Some spots in the main band across the south and Plateau could over-achieve with 7-8 inches under locally enhanced bands. Nashville Metro is on the edge of the higher band, so a small shift in this band could raise or lower totals for Metro. The snow will taper off Monday night as temperatures plunge further. Lows by Tuesday morning will be around 10 degrees with wind chills down in the single digits below zero for much of the area. A wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed, but we will wait til later tonight or Monday before focusing more on the cold. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 After the snow leaves, bitterly cold, dry air will grip the Mid State Tuesday through Wednesday. A fresh blanket of snow will enhance the cold temperatures. Highs will be limited to the teens for many areas on Tuesday and down near zero Tuesday night. The snow on the ground will not go anywhere through midweek with these frigid, yet not record-setting temperatures. Temps will finally climb above freezing Thursday just before another system comes our way with another chance for snow and another blast of Arctic cold air. Latest models show potential for up to an inch of snow with this fast moving system late Thursday through Friday followed by more bitter cold and dry air for the weekend. && 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I can already tell the 18z 3k NAM is going to go for 12-16 inches over Cross Mtn like it did at 12z. It's like a crazy ensemble member that skews the mean in how it skews the NBM. It's already got a foot north of Crossville by 21z Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 AL Gov issuing a state of emergency 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake. 18 z nam is still too warm rain and sleet not much snow. its still on a island of its own plenty of snow west and middle nothing much east tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake. It sure is consistent isn't it? This last minute amped trend is no bueno for the valley east. I'm not too surprised but it's not fun to watch haha. Absolutely rocks Middle TN though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NAM has an 80' deep warm nose (925-950)...unless that nose originated from Hades think it's overdoing the frz ra 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake. It’s been a thorn for a couple of days now….. good test of it coming up. It’s definitely on an island. Hope the rest of the 18z models don’t follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's already got a foot north of Crossville by 21z Monday I accept! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 3k is at 15 inches over Cross/Frozen Head by hour 28. I'd guess it's really keying on upglide into the peaks there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Maybe this is a weenie wish casting thing, but maybe it is initializing with somewhat warmer temps than expected. In this particular case the Arctic air is on the doorstep of the valley and it is currently trying to work in. The moisture isn't here yet, so there's still time. It's not like we have 2 hours of precip left right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, TellicoWx said: NAM has an 80' deep warm nose (925-950)...unless that nose originated from Hades think it's overdoing the frz ra It doesn’t make sense for the setup we have. I would think it’s likely wrong, but living where I live I never feel totally comfortable until the event has passed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Florence, AL is currently 33F with snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: NAM has an 80' deep warm nose (925-950)...unless that nose originated from Hades think it's overdoing the frz ra I think it's pulling that up from the south and piling it against the apps. A completely reasonable scenario IF it's as amped as it shows. The cold push really isn't doing much "pushing" it's pretty stagnant for the ETN area. Not to mention peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, zippity said: Florence, AL is currently 33F with snow. That seems early for that area but they will probably make a run at 5-7 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Rutherford schools already closed Tuesday. Unbelievable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 I'm at 14 inches on the 3k at hour 32 with snow still flying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Captain accurate raising totals in ETn….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Cross Mtn is going to make a go at 20 inches on the 3k. Not terribly uncommon up there, an every 3 year or so event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm at 14 inches on the 3k at hour 32 with snow still flying. Same amount where I live. Bet that'd push us to around -10 the next morning if that ever verified 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, PowellVolz said: Captain accurate raising totals in ETn…. . I'm fairly sure he's going to be wrong but we'll see. OHX just said 4-7 with 8+ possible over his 1-3 area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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