Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Wannabehippie]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? The trend is shifting west slightly 

The trend this winter has been no snow for NYC.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The trend this winter has been no snow for NYC.

So the models are wrong with 1-3 for the coast and maybe more if it comes west? 

Your posts doesn't even make any sense .

[MJO812]

Sref

[SBUWX23]

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

Seriously

People think it's late February with the sun angle issues.

[North and West]

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

sun angle


.

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

The mean is highest for LI and Southeast Mass 

 

 

1-3” will still be a really nice event compared to what we’ve had and that’s what the ensemble means show but it seems that if it gets more amped and therefore stronger, it will introduce more warm air. Hopefully I’m wrong but that’s what the setup seems to favor. I’m totally fine with the 1-3” and hopefully it works out with cold air coming in behind it, and something stronger can set up for 1/20 before we switch to mild again. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

sun angle


.

In mid January? LOL. 

[MJO812]

Nam coming in amplified

[mannynyc]

[shadowsintherain]

Nam coming in amplified

No way! Not the NAM! lol ;-)


.

[Irish]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in amplified

 

4 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

No way! Not the NAM! lol ;-)


.

It came in Namplified. 

[SBUWX23]

Its the NAM, but we do not want the mid level thermal profile it depicts.

[SBUWX23]

10 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Its the NAM, but we do not want the mid level thermal profile it depicts.

Same with the rgem. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

Same with the rgem. 

Mesos vs globals

[kingbaus]

I missed out are we getting a SECS now?????

[Irish]

And back to getting an inch again.

[Stormlover74]

42 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

I missed out are we getting a SECS now?????

Who? Where?

[Roger Smith]

GFS looks like 1.5 to 3.0 in w temps in 20s. 

[mannynyc]

lol

[MJO812]

Cmc is nice 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Still looking 1-3/2-4 type event. 

[SBUWX23]

The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing. 

[SBUWX23]

3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing. 

Its also still weaker compared to the other solutions. I think the ceiling here is a 2-4 event given the progressive nature and also this not being a strong storm. Right now I would play it conservation though and say 1-2 is more likely and it still could be 1 or less. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Still looking 1-3/2-4 type event. 

Maybe more

[MJO812]

Gefs west

[wishcast_hater]

What a disappointment.  The Midwest gets slammed twice and we cutters and now next to nothing.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

What a disappointment.  The Midwest gets slammed twice and we cutters and now next to nothing.

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

[wishcast_hater]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

Sorry, I am greedy. At the very least I would have liked out snowpack to have remained for several days and add more to it. We have been waiting for colder weather all season and now its here and we get suppression or strung out storms. SMH.

[mannynyc]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs west

So much potential here that will almost surely go to waste