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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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9 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


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Ya I’m with ya.  I was originally imagining a string of storms. The analogs indicated that. But we can still save this… Ok puke and rally, time to go hecs hunting!  

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37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The eps has been absolutely crushing the pattern even out to day 30!  If you’ve been following the weeklies the day 16-30 just transitions right into day 15 seamlessly and you can go bank and look at day 20-30 means and they’ve ended up almost exactly the long wave pattern when it became day 1-10!  It’s happening again.  The gefs has been ok but it’s had way more hiccups and tangents.
 

A few days after that the tpv gets displaced again and the nao goes negative and we roll through Feb with a pretty good pattern.  But we’ve been in that pattern for 20 days now!  
IMG_0912.gif.b073c2ff14f281dc85b7c2dea5a172f3.gif

The reasons we have yet to snow are not the long wave pattern. It’s been bad luck with meso details within the pattern.  Although I think the NS not digging enough next Tuesday or Friday and the last storm being too warm are perhaps not just bad luck but I’ll reserve that debate for the panic room. We just have to hope at some point we get more luck with one of these threats. In the pattern we seem to have through Feb they will keep coming. It would be eye opening if we manage to waste them all. This isn’t like 2020 or 2023 with there was just no chance. 

Very well said and you are exactly right. The EPS and the weeklies have done a great job with the pattern recognition basically in the 7 to 30 day period.  Been riding both of those all season and I see no reason to stop now.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And thats the thing, the ens have been honestly pretty good at seeing the overall longwave setup at range. And we have had some decent looks. My frustration last week was that we just aren't cashing in when we get the better setups. And that is to be expected....to a degree. But, throw enough chances and eventually it will happen. This is why wall to wall winter from Dec 1-mid March is a myth....not the norm. 

There is a lot of truth here…but unless my memory (and the data) is wrong, failing in a good pattern used to be when DC and Philly would miss getting a big storm and would nickel and dime through. 20 Years ago we would be mad if right now Philly or dc had 3-4” from a bunch of near misses at bigger storms. They have absolutely NOTHING 

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Wrt Jan 20 I wouldn’t get too in the weeds. There are lots of variables you can over analyze. But in general the western ridge is fine. The biggest issue is just that there is no healthy STJ wave at the right time. 
 

So absent that what we need is simply more dig from the NS. To get this I think we need more separation between the main TPV vortex and whatever NS SW is rotating around the back side of the trough at that time. The guidance can’t even agree on which SW it wants to amplify run to run!  But whatever it is it needs more separation to be able to amplify and dig further south.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You know I agree but putting all our eggs in Feb is risky. We needed this winter to be big not just ok. This is our high bar pattern year. It needs to be 40” not 20” and we’re starting to waste way too many chances to feel optimistic this year gets to 1958, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010 levels. Those were the analogs. That’s the bar. 

If we get 2 snowstorms of 20" each in the first half of March, is that a success? Dead ass serious question.

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if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare

seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare

seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

I don’t think anyone is literally expecting 09-10. I got 100 inches that year lol. But if we can’t go big in this nino, then when exactly???

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if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare
seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

I mean every map your post is you hinting at that
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:


I mean every map your post is you hinting at that

no. it was an analog, but to want to have that year as a bar on its own is going to set you up for failure

also, the year isn’t even over, and many of you can clear average in a good 10 day stretch. all of the speculation is silly

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don’t think anyone is literally expecting 09-10. I got 100 inches that year lol. But if we can’t go big in this nino, then when exactly???

the year isn’t even done and the historically most favorable stretch is coming up. i see a lot of people acting as if the year is cooked and it makes absolutely zero sense. people can have this convo in March. why it’s happening now i have no idea

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all because some are likely going to miss out on like 1-3” of snowfall. christ

That’s only part of the reason, people are upset because as psu outlined we've been in a great long wave pattern since end of December and have nothing to show for it! So when Mets reasonably point out we have another great pattern lining up most people are like “great! But we need to score from these at a point”. Personally I’m not canceling winter yet but that’s the current mood rn and you can’t rlly blame people for it.

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7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That’s only part of the reason, people are upset because as psu outlined we've been in a great long wave pattern since end of December and have nothing to show for it! So when Mets reasonably point out we have another great pattern lining up most people are like “great! But we need to score from these at a point”. Personally I’m not canceling winter yet but that’s the current mood rn and you can’t rlly blame people for it.

i wouldn’t consider the start of the month great. we had to recover from a torched source region, and we’ve just started a legitimately more favorable pattern. favorable patterns also only increase the odds of snowfall, they don’t guarantee it. let’s get to the relaxation in late Jan and re-evaluate when the 17th and 20th pass

also, if mets or others see a good pattern coming up, there’s no point in not pointing it out or noting that there’s high potential. that’s what this thread is for

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4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 This is my local forecaet for where i live in sparrows point MD.      I havent seen this much snow forecasted in one week in 5 years lol how sad is that! 

Screenshot_20240113_102252_Chrome.jpg

When you live where you do snow wouldn’t matter as much to me.  You must have some amazing views living there.  And endless crabs in the summer.  I just pulled up your location wow.  Right in the water. 

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38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you want this year to get to years like 2010 and 2003 levels, good luck not getting extremely disappointed. those are banner years that are very rare

seriously. a year like 2010 might not happen ever again. it didn’t happen in the early 1900s either lmao

I'd be happy with a 2019 type winter which had one good 10-12 inch storm and few smaller events for a total of around 25" for me

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

When you live where you do snow wouldn’t matter as much to me.  You must have some amazing views living there.  And endless crabs in the summer.  I just pulled up your location wow.  Right in the water. 

Yep, I grew up over there and went to Sparrows Pt HS. Not a bad area for the things you mentioned above.

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Yep, I grew up over there and went to Sparrows Pt HS. Not a bad area for the things you mentioned above.

I would bet in today’s inflated housing market that area would be untouchable.  My starter house in 99 was 220.  Now it’s about 750.  Can’t buy a condo in the eastern shore for that anymore.  Although I do have a water view from all the rain in my backyard.  

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I would bet in today’s inflated housing market that area would be untouchable.  My starter house in 99 was 220.  Now it’s about 750.  Can’t buy a condo in the eastern shore for that anymore.  Although I do have a water view from all the rain in my backyard.  

Yeah I have quite a few people I grew up with that have seen home values just in basic residential areas pop into the 4’s and 5’s. Dundalk area over to that way in general has seen a nice rise, but not like Moco, hoco, etc. pricing.

Waterfront in millers island is priced above the others along with some in Ft. Howard, but Millers is an auto flood zone when there’s even heavy rain. 

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37 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

When you live where you do snow wouldn’t matter as much to me.  You must have some amazing views living there.  And endless crabs in the summer.  I just pulled up your location wow.  Right in the water. 

This is my veiw from my front deck.  It is nice.   :) i go crabbing all the time off my pier :)

20240113_110709.jpg

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