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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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On 5/3/2024 at 8:12 PM, GaWx said:

Very fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency, but the Euro weekly for 5/13-20 is this:IMG_9612.thumb.webp.837cdcedaf3b8c2406a23f6895ed2d3c.webp

 

 

 Keeping in mind my mention in this quoted post of “fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency”, note how much warmer is today’s Euro Weekly throughout the US for 5/13-20 (just 3 days later)! @Met1985

IMG_9623.thumb.webp.102b4b9c27465010c6d390898d98d78e.webp

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Keeping in mind my mention in this quoted post of “fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency”, note how much warmer is today’s Euro Weekly throughout the US for 5/13-20 (just 3 days later)! @Met1985

IMG_9623.thumb.webp.102b4b9c27465010c6d390898d98d78e.webp

Yeah it definitely doesn't look as cool but I still think we see a few good cold shots to at least temper the heat.

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  • 3 weeks later...
44 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I posted in obs that it was 47 this morning in West Lincoln County.  Pretty amazing to be less than 5 weeks from July 4.  Love it.  Pic from last evening sitting on deck waiting on deer.  Almost needed a sweater.  

IMG_3082.jpeg

Last evening while walking out, I felt that “nip in the air” feeling of October. It will be back to stay in less than four months. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

El Niño La Niña, doesn’t matter, there’s nothing we can get snow from anymore 

Yep and it is clear why although if I say it in this thread the mods might get mad.

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19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Climate change or the extremely strong pac jet? Or the higher water temps in the gulf? To me seems like there are several variables and not just one. 

There is the school of thought out there that 2 of those issues come from the same parent so to speak.

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6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Climate change or the extremely strong pac jet? Or the higher water temps in the gulf? To me seems like there are several variables and not just one. 

A lot of respected mets say climate change is a big reason why some of those things are happening.

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5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

A lot of respected mets say climate change is a big reason why some of those things are happening.

I don’t want to get into the CC debate but when you look at the east coast as a whole, the record sea temps, and some pattern anomalies that seem to have more influence over our ability to snow than in years past, there’s a reason the entire east coast is in rarified air when it comes to snow droughts extending multi-years. There’s a very strong argument that our fragile baseline state for snow (usually 32-33 degrees through the column even for some major events in the past) may be too warm now simply bc the water temps storms have to work with warm us above that fragile dance. There’s a reason that in the south at least there hasn’t been a coastal storm since 2017 outside some areas of the triad in 2018 that didn’t end up raining. The few snows we’ve had since then have all come from modes other coastals. Watch our 100, 50 year averages decline and you start to realize this is a very strong trend. Seeing your average snow decrease from 7 to 5” over 50 years may not sound like a lot but losing 30% of your seasonal total on average means a lot of snowless years will come given 1 storm can send you above that. I worry we may be shattering snow drought records by the end of this season. Now I know it can still snow and all this is thrown out the table for a while if we do luck into one so I’ll be right there tracking once November rolls around, but the long term trends and prospects for snow in the future are pretty bleak 

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12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t want to get into the CC debate but when you look at the east coast as a whole, the record sea temps, and some pattern anomalies that seem to have more influence over our ability to snow than in years past, there’s a reason the entire east coast is in rarified air when it comes to snow droughts extending multi-years. There’s a very strong argument that our fragile baseline state for snow (usually 32-33 degrees through the column even for some major events in the past) may be too warm now simply bc the water temps storms have to work with warm us above that fragile dance. There’s a reason that in the south at least there hasn’t been a coastal storm since 2017 outside some areas of the triad in 2018 that didn’t end up raining. The few snows we’ve had since then have all come from modes other coastals. Watch our 100, 50 year averages decline and you start to realize this is a very strong trend. Seeing your average snow decrease from 7 to 5” over 50 years may not sound like a lot but losing 30% of your seasonal total on average means a lot of snowless years will come given 1 storm can send you above that. I worry we may be shattering snow drought records by the end of this season. Now I know it can still snow and all this is thrown out the table for a while if we do luck into one so I’ll be right there tracking once November rolls around, but the long term trends and prospects for snow in the future are pretty bleak 

I think you make some valid points.  I have been closely following the winter weather in this area since 76/77 when I was 12.  There were some epic winters from 76/77 - 82/83.  After that, it seemed winter storms became less frequent throughout the remainder of the 80's.  Yes we had the epic cold snap in January of 85 and the big dogs in Janaury of 87 & 88, but that was about it.  I kept thinking this is just a pattern change like the 50's and it would snap back like it did in the 60's.  But, it didn't happen in the 90's either.  We had the Super Storm in 93.  95/96 was very reminicent of the "old pattern"  Anyway, the climate, as it always has, is changing and is not the same as 50 years ago.  

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Looks like an incredibly dry stretch incoming. Summer temps incoming as well. Enjoy the slightly cooler weather while it lasts bc our first death ridge is incoming. Hopefully models are overhyping it and it breaks down allowing for some breaks but it looks like extended hot and dry weather is a almost certainty 

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On 6/5/2024 at 3:46 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

I think you make some valid points.  I have been closely following the winter weather in this area since 76/77 when I was 12.  There were some epic winters from 76/77 - 82/83.  After that, it seemed winter storms became less frequent throughout the remainder of the 80's.  Yes we had the epic cold snap in January of 85 and the big dogs in Janaury of 87 & 88, but that was about it.  I kept thinking this is just a pattern change like the 50's and it would snap back like it did in the 60's.  But, it didn't happen in the 90's either.  We had the Super Storm in 93.  95/96 was very reminicent of the "old pattern"  Anyway, the climate, as it always has, is changing and is not the same as 50 years ago.  

Good Post.

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6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like an incredibly dry stretch incoming. Summer temps incoming as well. Enjoy the slightly cooler weather while it lasts bc our first death ridge is incoming. Hopefully models are overhyping it and it breaks down allowing for some breaks but it looks like extended hot and dry weather is a almost certainty 

My nearly 30 year old heat pump is not pleased

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