WesternFringe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This kind of proves my point...that the temps are the most important issue...the thing I don't get is you act like its a given we will always have temp problems...NO its not...There are plenty of times we had a cold enough antecedent airmass in place that was....wait for it...5-10 degrees colder than the one forecasted this week. And that's why it snowed those times and why it might not this time for many places! Look at where the thermal boundary is at 850 and surface as the wave approaches Surface 850...and look where the REAL cold boundary is This is NOT what we want or need the thermals to look like as a wave begins its final approach...the WAA hasn't even kicked into high gear yet and were already too warm! We are left relying on everything else to be absolutely perfect to make up for the one main deficiency. Look at what we WANT the thermals to look like as a strong wave approaches us from the southwest...just so we can remember what COLD ENOUGH looked like, what we actually want the thermals to look like. January 1996 Ok maybe this isn't fair...it's one of our colder big storms and during a Nina. So here is a storm in another strong Nino during a very "warm" winter...at least by those days standards Feb 1983 And finally...Feb 2010 and at the time this was considered to be a marginal airmass! I remember about 5 days before that event I was discussing with Wes weather the airmass would be cold enough, he thought it was problematic and we were debating if with a perfect track it would be able to overcome the "questionable" airmass... so this was considered marginal and the bare minimum of what we need to be cold enough to snow Still miles better than what we have leading up to this event on guidance. So we could be super picky and analyze what we need from the SLP track and the upper low and the exact amplitude of the wave and the exact composition of the 50/50 and the western trough....but the one obvious flaw that makes it so that we need all that other crap to go 100% perfectly for us to get a big snow in DC is that its NOT COLD ENOUGH. BTW the reason I have been saying this a LOT lately is because its been true a lot lately and its why its not been snowing much the last 7 years. This is the least edgy controversial thing Ive ever said. Its a melba toast comment. Its like DUH. There is no mystery to why we haven't been snowing as much lately. THIS IS WHY...Temp anomalies Dec-Feb last 7 winters ITS THAT SIMPLE Say it more. You have proven your point (at least to your self-satisfaction) literally hundreds of times. We all come here to talk about how it might snow and to have fun with it. What is the actual f-ing utility of saying the same thing over and over and over? At a certain point, who cares if this used to be a snowier set-up? What we all care about is snow chances for next week. We don’t need an incessant and never-ending dissertation why it would have been a better set-up 20 years ago. Who fucking cares? Jesus christ. Most of us just care about the fun of snow chances next week, and really don’t care where you think it fits historically at all or in the least little bit. This hobby is supposed to be fun and you are a kill joy at times. It’s that simple. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Those 1994 ice storms were what got me into weather which eventually became my career! I do remember 93 but it was 94 that I got into watching TWC all the time. Two distinct memories from that year (all these are from near IAD) - the MLK day ice storm which started out as snow in the morning, then progressed to sleet and freezing rain during the day. Just when the temp hit 32 the arctic front came through and froze everything solid...the water that had ponded in my backyard literally become a skating rink (I had taken ice skating lessons a couple years earlier, and jammed my feet, which had grown a good deal in those 2 years, into my skates just so I could say I skated in my yard!). This week had a few sub-zero low and single digit highs, and there was a clipper that came through later in the week that dropped 1-2 inches of some of the lightest, fluffiest snow I have ever seen. Mid-February there was a huge sleet storm - I want to say that the piles of sleet that bounced off the roof created 2 foot "drifts" around the house but the accumulation elsewhere was more like 4-6 inches. Then we had 2 inland runner storms, one in early january and another in early march, which were 3-6 inch type deals with wet snow, although I remember hearing that north and west did much better in these. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Anyone have the 00z ICON snow map? I'm guessing it's like 2-4 inches lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 In ‘94 I was at Penn State Altoona and all those ice storms were snowstorms for us. Also, they closed Penn State (unprecedented) after we were below zero for days. What a winter that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: keep that purple in DT land! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Latest disco from sterling!!!! Good read.... As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface, with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season (and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 NGL. The Icon sucks ass. Thank god it is a horrific excuse for a model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: Those 1994 ice storms were what got me into weather which eventually became my career! I do remember 93 but it was 94 that I got into watching TWC all the time. Two distinct memories from that year (all these are from near IAD) - the MLK day ice storm which started out as snow in the morning, then progressed to sleet and freezing rain during the day. Just when the temp hit 32 the arctic front came through and froze everything solid...the water that had ponded in my backyard literally become a skating rink (I had taken ice skating lessons a couple years earlier, and jammed my feet, which had grown a good deal in those 2 years, into my skates just so I could say I skated in my yard!). This week had a few sub-zero low and single digit highs, and there was a clipper that came through later in the week that dropped 1-2 inches of some of the lightest, fluffiest snow I have ever seen. Mid-February there was a huge sleet storm - I want to say that the piles of sleet that bounced off the roof created 2 foot "drifts" around the house but the accumulation elsewhere was more like 4-6 inches. Then we had 2 inland runner storms, one in early january and another in early march, which were 3-6 inch type deals with wet snow, although I remember hearing that north and west did much better in these. Yea, I remember that year pretty well. There hasn't been anything close to the severity of those ice storms since and I also remember that extremely high ratio 2-4" deal we had. Dews were very low for that event. The sleet parade was the result of a low forming along a stalled out frontal boundary near the gulf coast. It snowed for like 5 minutes and the rest was several inches of pure sleet. LaGuardia ended up with close to a foot of snow lol, if I recall correctly (from news reports). That was an equally frustrating and interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS is souther. Eta: much better confluence....colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 So, checking things before I head out partying...I'd say GFS looks a little better. But I'm buzzing so.... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is souther 1030+ HP. Should be a nice run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is souther. Eta: much better confluence....colder. Liking the way that sounds!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, stormtracker said: So, checking things before I head out partying...I'd say GFS looks a little better. But I'm buzzing so.... Enjoy ur self bro drink a few for me!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 light snow at 144hr on the GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Light snow around at 144 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Snowing near Richmond at 147 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's a great run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Its still a wound up beast. But better confluence this run. Nice thump incoming at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Moderate snow DCA 150 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Holy fucking PUMMELLED! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 50/50 working it's magic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 153 SLP near ORF... DCA ripping... but line us close 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a great run 24hr storm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Still snowing n va into DC into MD at 159 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We take. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC is also pretty good all things considered -- RA/SN line rides just south of DC 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Shenandoah Valley gets mauled man. It's a thrashing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That was nice. Would like more juice but that looked pretty clean on the snow. Good trends 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: We take. zoomed in 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 El Nino's are cool. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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