NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Seems like a better first storm is better for the 2nd storm. I’m sure it’s several things… but it helps that the 2nd storm is a real storm with good rates. Not like it’s showing cold smoke. Fringe in the metros and 30-31 out in your spot. Boom/bust. Give us a real storm and we’ve got a shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00x CMC fails the Chuck test I think if I remember how it was explained earlier. Think it goes 3/3 The CMC isnt as deep with the western trough and kinda cuts it off which leaves just enough room for the system to amplfy some in the east...but its still close and notice it quickly gets suppressed and slides southeast once to our latitude. Its still extremely tight spacing. GFS does the same...the wave starts up then gets washed out. We could use a little more breathing room there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling?I read somewhere that the mjo phase might start showing in the models soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling? Icon was Jaws music worthy at the end of the run 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The CMC isnt as deep with the western trough and kinda cuts it off which leaves just enough room for the system to amplfy some in the east...but its still close and notice it quickly gets suppressed and slides southeast once to our latitude. Its still extremely tight spacing. GFS does the same...the wave starts up then gets washed out. We could use a little more breathing room there. Well El Niños tend to like our area more than Philly nyc in many cases . All the big Nino Hecs seemed to always bullseye our area perhaps due to blocking 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Well El Niños tend to like our area more than Philly nyc in many cases . All the big Nino Hecs seemed to always bullseye our area perhaps due to blocking yes but in this case I think the wave spacing is a limiting factor also... I would still be a little nervous this gets squashed but its looking like it has more of a chance this run. The spacing is still tight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Thats a Chaotic look there: Lots of split flows pretty good split there in the Gulf of Mexico along southern branch and another out west near Los Angles heading all the way NNW to Alaska and another flow branches out into southern Arizona down to Mexico City. Now east of Edmonton and Calgary there is a pretty pronounced flow SSE from Northern and Central Canada pushing SSE down in the Mid-West and moving SSE into the Eastern United states this did not happen almost at all last year as I remember. So, maybe just maybe we are about to make the turn the cold air up north is well... relatively cold though and most likely will modify quite a bit. At least it is a bit more interesting to look at. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yes but in this case I think the wave spacing is a limiting factor also... I would still be a little nervous this gets squashed but its looking like it has more of a chance this run. The spacing is still tight. Time to work on it though alas it is only December 30th for this January 7th window at this lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I'm more worried about the cold air flow. but I guess this is closer, problem with the first system is lack of High pressure to the north, or 998mb low in SE Canada. 2nd storm has a Aleutian ridge already building so this starts to pump a SE ridge in the 500mb pattern. In my experience those two factors trend less favorable as we move toward the actual storm getting closer (lack of cold air needed)(rain), but the system could amplify. To trend better, The El Nino may start effecting the pattern in trend? I think it's 90/10 these will be rainstorms in verification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 So 2 cutters on gfs before the mid month warmup WowThis is not what I signed up for 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 All in on the Canadian. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z CMC saves winter on Jan 7 This is the one I have been liking . Not this model but the overall set up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 @brooklynwx99 the gefs ext confirms my point. The look at the end of the gefs was not a temporary transient problem. This is where it leads one week after the gefs ends and two weeks later and it still looks like garbage into Feb. I am not saying I agree with it. Just saying don’t sugar coat it. That look is god awful, just hope it’s wrong. Once a central pac ridge goes ape like that it’s a season wrecker most of the time! I’m not a sugar coat things kinda person. If that’s correct we busted and this season is not what we expected. The good news is simply it’s still at a range we can hope it’s just wrong. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Let me ask this...why do we give the CMC any credence? It's always biased cold, lolDoesn’t it have a better verification score than the GFS though? Or am I tripping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Icon was Jaws music worthy at the end of the run Pretty certain this is the best post of the day. “you’re gonna need a bigger boat” (or Omega block) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6z GFS looking Iconic. The main shortwave is stronger and a bit more 'left alone'. Stronger surface LP along the Gulf coast, colder look leading in. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Here we go.. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6z GFS looking Iconic. The main shortwave is stronger and a bit more 'left alone'. Stronger surface LP along the Gulf coast, colder look leading in.The euro is faster with the next piece of energy(the cutter lol) and it's really messing up our chances. Hopefully the other models like ggem and gfs are onto something Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Storm ran into a wall on our doorstep. Too much of a good thing up top. Wave dampens. That '50-50' vortex is a beast and a bit too far southwest. Need more spacing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6z gfs nukes Virginia. Hopefully it continues to trend in the right direction for a forum wide blitzing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Be interesting to see the GEFS members. Didn't quite work out this run, but this is an improvement wrt cold air feed from the north as the low approaches. The classic surface HP locked in southern Canada with confluence on the west side of that vortex. Need more spacing between our wave and that vortex though, otherwise it damps as it runs into the upper confluence/convergence region. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This is encouraging. I want you guys to get snow. Just need the spacing. This gfs run looks promising, if I am reading this correctly, but it is a long lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Be interesting to see the GEFS members. Didn't quite work out this run, but this is an improvement wrt cold air feed from the north. The classic surface HP locked in southern Canada due to confluence on the west side of that vortex. Need more spacing between our wave and that vortex though, otherwise it damps as it runs into the upper confluence/convergence region.The euro shows no such vortex and a storm right on its heelSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: The euro shows no such vortex and a storm right on its heel Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Not sure what you are looking at lol. It is the same general idea as the GFS, but it has more of a 50-50 trough with TPV energy feeding into it. It progresses NE a bit as the low approaches so a bit more spacing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Getting there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6z GEFS has the precip a bit further north, but the signal for frozen is modest and focused more in the western higher terrain. The basic problem(s) as currently modeled imo- the tendency for the wave to weaken/be suppressed due to the close proximity of the previous wave that strengthens into a southward displaced 50-50 feature, while the deepening trough out west forces a developing ridge just to the north/west of the low as it tracks towards the coast. That also tends to shunt it offshore to our south and somewhat limits available cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS has the precip a bit further north, but the signal for frozen is modest and focused more in the western higher terrain. The basic problem(s) as currently modeled imo- the tendency for the wave to weaken/be suppressed due to the close proximity of the previous wave that strengthens into a southward displaced 50-50 feature, while the deepening trough out west forces a developing ridge just to the north/west of the low as it tracks towards the coast. That also tends to shunt it offshore to our south and somewhat limits available cold. Good explanation, thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 A bit further north than the previous 2 runs. 7 days out so still uncertainty on the exact details. Potential for a moderate event for parts of the region with some spacing adjustments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 @psuhoffman 06z trended better in the long run. Aleutian ridge weaker, aleutian low looks like it wants to reload behind it. It’s just one run, so we’ll see. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman 06z trended better in the long run. Aleutian ridge weaker, aleutian low looks like it wants to reload behind it. It’s just one run, so we’ll see. Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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