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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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14 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

hell no I will not flip out. 1-2 inch rain is nothing now. a cakewalk. The major sewer lines in our area are fully surcharged and overflows are occuring from inflow from leaky pipes. This does not bode well for the municipalities of the Lehigh County. The township people today pulled the sewer lid out in front of my house and the pipe was full and it was not blocked after they jetted the collector line. Can you say the shit has already hit the fan with these rainfall amounts in the last 30 days?  Bring on the cold and snow , I am ready 

Ya kinda flipped out...

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Some lows around the county this AM- East Nantmeal Twp. 29.1 / Atgen 33.6 / Chester Springs 25.7 / Devault 26.1 / Warwick Twp. 23.3 / Glenmoore 27.9 / West Chester 25.0 / Kennett Square 26.0. Flash flood watch tonight with rain arriving from SW to NE across the area after 7pm. We could see around additional inch or more of unneeded rain across the area. Temps will rise tonight to the low 50's before falling all day tomorrow with temps falling below freezing by 6pm. Sunday should see highs into the upper 30's but that may be our last day above freezing for at least the next week. Additionally, snow chances will increase by Tuesday. Of note if and a big if... we do see any snow a couple models are hinting at temperatures near zero by Thursday morning this assumes there is some snow cover.
Records for today: High 64 (2020) / Low minus 7 (1981) / Rain 1.98" (1983) / Snow 5.0" (1982)
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21 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Euro vs the world. Interesting.  ICON has a boarderline MECS going. CMC is inland with I-95 getting rain/snow. 

 

 

CMC wants to get something going for next Friday. GFS says southern slider with what looks like a big ole high pressure setting up in the midwest. 

I dont think it happens, though it's not like we haven't seen it before....but if the Euro scores the win and shafts us and the mid atl I may just quit this hobby. This scenario is precisely how Dr No earned its name. I pray to the heavens, please, not this time lol. Honestly, pattern argues against the Euro and I'm betting against it, but we wait and see. I like where we're at right now.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont think it happens, though it's not like we haven't seen it before....but if the Euro scores the win and shafts us and the mid atl I may just quit this hobby. This scenario is precisely how Dr No earned its name. I pray to the heavens, please, not this time lol. Honestly, pattern argues against the Euro and I'm betting against it, but we wait and see. I like where we're at right now.

I am guessing perhaps models come in line after tonights storm pulls away. Would you agree? 

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically. 

better late than never LOL.  No more flooding rains hopefully.

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13 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Ya kinda flipped out...

About 13 inches of rain for many areas in our forecast region IN 30 DAYS  IS NOT NORMAL, especially in DEC - JAN. That is over 30% of annual precipitation on semi frozen with little or no evapotranspiration on saturated  grounds in less than 8 weeks. Completely different scenario than a summer tropical storm event.  I have the absolute right to flip out a little as this crappy rainy weather pattern has never been experienced by the majority of us in our lifetime including me solely  in the winter months.   2011 was the last time we had 13 or more  inches of rain in any two consecutive  months - back to back tropical storms  Irene and Lee in August and Septemeber   https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-monthly-precipitation.  You are now enjoying something that has never been seen in over 125 years of weather recorded history.  That is 100 times more interesting than tracking a dam snow storm to a weather buff.  The stupid media not picking up on this weather history situation is beyond me. 

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Odd seeing the models in their opposite camps. Usually it's the GFS that's flat and OTS at this stage. And if the Euro has been guilty of anything in recent years, its been over amplifying systems on the EC in the medium to long range. 

Weenie handbook #43: "We just can't know!"

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Odd seeing the models in their opposite camps. Usually it's the GFS that's flat and OTS at this stage. And if the Euro has been guilty of anything in recent years, its been over amplifying systems on the EC in the medium to long range. 

Weenie handbook #43: "We just can't know!"

"whichever model shows the least amount of snow, go with that" tends to pan out more often than not.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS has @Albedoman's clipper swinging thru the midwest finally at 384hr. He says the clipper is what will finally usher in winter for us by the 3rd week of January as per his years of experience. We shall see....the clipper may end up actually being the end of our run instead of the start ironically. 

Isn't a clipper what started the whole chain of events in winter '09-'10?

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