Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 To be fair, LWX’s watch statement is for most likely outcome of 2-4” with isolated 6” amounts in heavier bands. That’s a bit of a stretch for a region that needs widespread 5” or more to verify a warning, technically. Both ends of the spectrum between CTP and LWX haha. I think after Tuesdays debacle they are ready to throw all the models out the window and figure they can get away with waiting till 12-24 hours before this event to issue any headlines just so there is no chance they have to deal with a repeat of Tuesday. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Is our next extended HRRR at 8? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Probably...about 90 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Probably...about 90 min. We need @Blizzard of 93 in hereSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Winter Storm Watch issued for Lanco.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 They heard us…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Probably...about 90 min. 21z Rap just came out last hour. EDIT: Part of that up in cehtral and north is before Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 46 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: CTP forecast through Sunday Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk LWX going with 3-4 in Washington County, MD. CTP with 1-2 in Franklin. Again, why can’t the offices be on the same page? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wsw issued per wgal. Lsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Wsw issued per wgal. Lsv. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wsw issued per wgal. Lsv.York and Lancaster onlySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wsw issued per wgal. Lsv. I think we might be in a pretty good spot for this one. Fingers crossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: My comment was based on the quick changing situation last time and a compare to this time. 36 hours before the event, not many models have me getting 5" or more with the last system yet I had a WSW. Now, there are several models that suggest 5" here and there is nothing from them except a down play of the situation. They could of course be right but it is not consistent with their actions on the last system. We are actually down to 24 hours before the event at this point. Yea that is true, and they honestly looked really good by the end of Sunday when things shifted south a bit. They upgraded high confidence counties to warnings and kept the watches that reached into the Sus Valley. The big shift south Monday at <24hrs til go time really sent the forecast sideways. Then they never downgraded the warning they had for here last event either when it was abundantly clear AOO-UNV wasn’t getting 6+. Even JB said just prior to the event they needed to get rid of the warnings for the State College area haha. They just turned it into a 2-4” winter storm warning, which I’ve never seen before. Then of course the high confidence counties above I-80 that were originally warned didn’t even see any snow in the end. What happened with the Tuesday event was brutal, and I don’t know if there was much to be done with that kind of a shift in guidance. I don’t expect anything drastic to happen with this system. Precip shield should have much less of a northern gradient than Tuesday and big thing for our area is determining how much of southern PA to put in advisories IMO. Wagons north seems to be the theme of happy hour so far (need the Euro yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: York and Lancaster only Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Somerset to Lancaster Counties. 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think we might be in a pretty good spot for this one. Fingers crossed I do too. At least they ssued something in PA. Wgal just said Lsv and I did not realize just 2 countries. One county short of the areas that did not have an wsw last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: York and Lancaster only Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Unreal - read the actual Watch. It's for a lot of the southern tier counties but only York and Lancaster are on the map. 3-6" for the southern tier. Sorry, the "unreal' statement was directed at CTP and NOT you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think we might be in a pretty good spot for this one. Fingers crossed Same here. Hopefully do better than the 3 inches from last storm. I just want to use the snow blower a few more times this year. .WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I do too. At least they are issued something here. Wgal just said Lsv and I did not realize just 2 countries. One county short of the areas that did not have an wsw last time. It's not just 2 - you are in it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's not just 2 - you are in it as well. They need to update graphics thenSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Jns2183 said: They need to update graphics then Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The active wind advisory covers up the watch for other counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: They need to update graphics then Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The active wind advisory covers up the watch for other counties You are correct.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 48 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: My NWS forecast has less than an inch tomorrow night. Same for Tamaqua, but hey, Lancaster has a winter storm watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Harrisburg is not in any winter headline. CTPs grid has me getting 1” snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Harrisburg is not in any winter headline. CTPs grid has me getting 1” snow. About a mile to your west they are calling for 3"-6". I guess they plan on testing the river snow shield Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z Euro18Z?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: 18Z? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Quite honestly, the NWS needs to reopen Harrisburg, give them Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry, Snyder, Union, Lebanon, Berks, York, Lancaster, Chester, and Northumberland counties. State College should take Centre, Mifflin, Juniata, Huntingdon, Cameron, Clinton, Blair, Clearfield, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Elk, Jefferson, and Indiana counties. Fulton, Franklin, and Adams counties should probably go to Sterling (or put an office in Hagerstown or Frederick). An NWS should be opened in Erie for the northern tier and everything down to Butler, where Pittsburgh takes over. State College just has way too large of a CWA. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It is 203 miles from Quarryville to du Bois. That is one CWA. There are five planets in between those two locales. How should one office be forced to cover such a spread?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Current Sref hot off the screen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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