GrandmasterB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also, RGEM gives me like 10” or something wild. Interesting to see how it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Eh, here's our sounding though for the second frame of heavy stuff. With the rates we have, its definitely a snow sounding. Isothermal. I was more talking final accums, no time to jump in right now but Adams county/Western York were well in the pink at 12Z. I hate to say "it's noise" but probably the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was more talking final accums, no time to jump in right now but Adams county/Western York were well in the pink at 12Z. I hate to say "it's noise" but probably the case here. Sure, I understand. For "us" its actually heavier on the totals, but as you get into york, there's that sharp cutoff, I agree. Weird as I just dug deeper into the soundings and the layers are cooler aloft a bit. Seems it could be an algorithm thing. You can't hate seeing the QPF tick up over an inch solidly on 18z coming in hot & heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS was actually a step back for you and I but who cares at this point. Better for Northern Lanco and MDT areas Not sure a low-res model is good to pay attention to within 18 hours of event time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 57 minutes ago, Voyager said: How close do you live to your neighbors? We won't laugh, but if any of them saw you, I'll bet they did. To the back of me open, only 1 other neighbor on my road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, canderson said: Not sure a low-res model is good to pay attention to within 18 hours of event time. We are hanging it all on the line at this point. About time for the usual RAP post: 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are hanging it all on the line at this point. About time for the usual RAP post: I'd like to rap you one. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hard to know what to think for Williamsport as of 4:45p. Certainly looks like we will get more than I figured. Winter Weather Warning still up and issued past noon says 4-8. Now for Williamsport, NWS says: Saturday Snow, mainly after noon. High near 34. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow. Low around 30. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. For Southern Lycoming which includes us too of course, NWS says: Saturday A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Saturday Night Snow. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature around 30. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are hanging it all on the line at this point. About time for the usual RAP post: Dare I say that looks like a pretty damn reasonable depiction ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29.5 here in York New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Dare I say that looks like a pretty damn reasonable depiction ha. Yeah, don't you dare say that is what some people are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah, don't you dare say that is what some people are thinking. If we can post experimental models (no offense) we can post the Rap...in addition, give me one model that has performed even close to acceptable with this situation? Just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If we can post experimental models (no offense) we can post the Rap...in addition, give me one model that has performed even close to acceptable with this situation? Just one? well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right True, if we all get 8-12 then the Canadian does get a nice win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: True, if we all get 8-12 then the Canadian does get a nice win on this one. His 18z big brother (Ggem) agrees too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The new Rap upped most people in the questionable area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The new Rap upped most people in the questionable area. okay, now ya can post it haha temps are dropping fast over here. Down to 30/19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 28 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: well we don't know yet but the only one thats been rock solid consistent is our noble rgem. Let's just let that be right The RGEM has been very consistent & so has the ICON. Not sure how I feel about it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: His 18z big brother (Ggem) agrees too. Ohhhhh Canada….! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 so question Im seeing it starts about 10-11 in my area local future radar from the news is saying it ends by 7pm? I was looking at other future radar they have it lasting till 10pm-12am some models suggest wrap around till sunday 10am but normally wrap around doesnt pan out to good in my area. WSW goes till 10am I think kind of odd the locals showing it ends at 7pm? I know storms tend to end earlier then the alert calls for but more then 12 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The RGEM has been very consistent & so has the ICON. Not sure how I feel about it, lol! Not directed at you, just documentation for the court case... Icon Today on top, Icon from Monday (same time period) below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 26/19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DT'S Final call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: 26/19 29/17 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’m at 34 / 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: DT'S Final call: I think the 6" line should maybe be a little NW of where he has it, but on the whole this is actually pretty good I think? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Final Call 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 at 29/21 went down to pick up food temp was 35 I came out 20 mins later and it was down to 29 when i got back home double checked both thermometers. Still clear not even high lvl clouds yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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