Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) (1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia.. (2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTunedLike that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: First it was the 12z GFS...then it was the 12z Euro...and now the 18z NAM has picked up on this...(too bad this would still likely miss most of us at this point) (1/2) Why is winter storm forecasting so difficult? Just look at the trend in 500 mb vorticity (upper-level energy supporting the surface low) over the past 4 runs of the GFS model. The initial energy now hangs back and interacts with the trailing disturbance over Virginia.. (2/2) That causes the storm system to slow down, become more amplified and thus intensify closer to the coast, and precip to last longer in eastern PA. The 12z ECMWF model is similar. Long story short, the writing is not yet on the wall with this system.. #developing #StayTuned Yeah NAM was really trying late. Hard to believe we have another full day of tracking this thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I thought years ago some of you guys used to make maps of snow accumulations for Pennsylvania. Be nice to see them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mahantango#1 said: I thought years ago some of you guys used to make maps of snow accumulations for Pennsylvania. Be nice to see them again. You must be thinking of DT. Maybe @MillvilleWx can throw something together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Some neighboring Offices for those interested.....looks to be pretty consistent.... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: You must be thinking of DT. Maybe @MillvilleWx can throw something together Im almost certain that few used to try their hand on accumulations. That was years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Im almost certain that few used to try their hand on accumulations. That was years ago. A fee did. I think that EasternWX Zach dude did, Mag and MxVile too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RGEM much improved for us SE fringe folks.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: RGEM much improved for us SE fringe folks. . You're not wrong... My once a season snow map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: You're not wrong... My once a season snow map. Dayum! This is getting good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You're not wrong... My once a season snow map. That improved big for me. I definitely don’t see that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 26 minutes ago, canderson said: A fee did. I think that EasternWX Zach dude did, Mag and MxVile too. I'm glad someone remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2nd birthday showing up on GFS now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah up north they'll often split the counties (i.e. northern Centre vs southern Centre), not so much down here. Chester County is very often split NW-SE...Philly/Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Chester County is very often split NW-SE...Philly/Mt. HollyI always felt that Lancaster, York, Dauphin, and Lebanon were afterthoughts for the State College NWS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 ABC’s 27 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I always felt that Lancaster, York, Dauphin, and Lebanon were afterthoughts for the State College NWS. . The NWS office used to be located in the Federal Bldg in Harrisburg before politics moved the radar up in the center part of the state and thus felt the office should be located there as well. The "old" radar was atop a mountain WSW of Mt. Holly Springs...That's when wx models were dot matrix plots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 32 minutes ago, canderson said: ABC’s 27 forecast Local News war WGAL is 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: https://youtu.be/jlA-z0du1Pg?si=MsXoyyypQebvVfZ0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 47 minutes ago, Caveman said: Chester County is very often split NW-SE...Philly/Mt. Holly Yes I’ve seen them do that and like the attention to detail. 44 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I always felt that Lancaster, York, Dauphin, and Lebanon were afterthoughts for the State College NWS. . Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS snow depth Plowable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I like seeing that CTP upped their totals on their map. A lot more yellow & dark blue in the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 MU's map is out but can't post on my phone. 1-3" south of turnpike, 3-6" for most everyone else in the LSV. He said significant changes can still occur... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’d sign for the 18z crowd pleaser for all of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Selfishly, I’d prefer the RGEM for my yard, but it is likely sadly the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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