Bubbler86 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Somewhat rare that post-frontal works but here is the snow map to go with that., 10-1 map. I do not have Kuch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Somewhat rare that post-frontal works but here is the snow map to go with that., 10-1 map. I do not have Kuch. SOLD!Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Somewhat rare that post-frontal works but here is the snow map to go with that., 10-1 map. I do not have Kuch. Definitely rare but heck something to look at, at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Definitely rare but heck something to look at, at this point. @Itstrainingtime may need to stay in Orlando longer so his Florida snow streak continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Euro is definitely much more pronounced with the vigorous shortwave and deeper with the surface low that runs the frontal boundary and enhances the the precipitation shield in C-PA post frontal passage. Modeling has been pretty persistent on some kind of an attempted changeover across at least some of PA the last several runs having this system with a sharp cold frontal passage. I think this scenario probably favors laurels and central counties more but the Euro solution does show how it could snow for most in here. The low develops along the boundary in VA and moves into central NJ (996mb at that point). GFS is trying to do the same thing but just isn’t as amplified as the Euro. Definitely intriguing, the range for this system isn’t really super far out (~D5). 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Somewhat rare that post-frontal works but here is the snow map to go with that., 10-1 map. I do not have Kuch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Somewhat rare that post-frontal works but here is the snow map to go with that., 10-1 map. I do not have Kuch. Kuchera indicates the event is <10:1 in PA east of the Alleghenies ( central counties and LSV), a probable outcome given the changover scenario the Euro presents. A rapid temp drop in the column post front that allows a quick change to snow BUT the best precip ends before much colder air aloft arrives that would boost snow growth/ratios. Surface temps also fall from the 50s to near or just below freezing during the event (marginal but sufficient to accumulate with higher precip rates). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Kuchera indicates the event is No flash freeze?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 34 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Euro is definitely much more pronounced with the vigorous shortwave and deeper with the surface low that runs the frontal boundary and enhances the the precipitation shield in C-PA post frontal passage. Modeling has been pretty persistent on some kind of an attempted changeover across at least some of PA the last several runs having this system with a sharp cold frontal passage. I think this scenario probably favors laurels and central counties more but the Euro solution does show how it could snow for most in here. The low develops along the boundary in VA and moves into central NJ (996mb at that point). GFS is trying to do the same thing but just isn’t as amplified as the Euro. Definitely intriguing, the range for this system isn’t really super far out (~D5). All bets on my somewhat negative post-frontal take are off the boards if the slp developed like the Euro suggests but I feel like we talk about this every year and the same trend that pulls precip in faster than modeled, limits the chances for areas East of the mountains when the low is going near the LSV longitude as the front is passing. If the low was developing earlier in the Southeast I would feel differently. That is some serious poundage in the blue near the changeover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Today's the most wintery day we've had since probably 2021. Lots of flizzards and snow showers on/off all day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: Today's the most wintery day we've had since probably 2021. Lots of flizzards and snow showers on/off all day. It is 44 and partly sunny here. We missed on this winter day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: @Itstrainingtime may need to stay in Orlando longer so his Florida snow streak continues. Lol, I’ll contribute to fund him staying there as long as it takes! Don’t you have Florida connections so we could find him a place to stay down there for awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 It must be Winter…I just looked at the 18z ICON, lol! It is on the Sunday night snow train. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’ll contribute to fund him staying there as long as it takes! Don’t you have Florida connections so we could find him a place to stay down there for awhile? He will not tell us what he is doing so I am afraid of sketchy stuff. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 @mitchnick You were waiting on a better snow signal on an ensemble run. Here is the best looking ensemble run that I’ve seen yet this year for our region through day 16. 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @mitchnick You were waiting on a better snow signal on an ensemble run. Here is the best looking ensemble run that I’ve seen yet this year for our region through day 16. 18z GEFS 0z was similar, but most of it thru 384 hrs comes Sunday night into Monday and the 0z Euro has backed down with that threat...a lot in most places unfortunately. Blip? I dunno. But Eps backed down some too and Geps is as impressed with it as Taylor Swift would be with my physique. But I find her nauseating, so we're even. Plenty of time, but these kinds of events are truly thread the needle, so we're going to have to wait until the weekend for any kind of certainty regardless of ensembles imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Dusting of snow has fallen as it is currently snowing. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The road is ten feet from my front door and US 322 is spitting distance. Can confirm has caved. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 32 this Am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 32 - Light snow/Flurries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Low of 28 and I can see from my train seat that it is currently lightly snowing in Elizabethtown as we make our stop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Light snow in Marysville with 31 degrees. The car tops have caved & the road has partially caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The snow is really pointed toward the MSV and LSV this time. A finger from the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Interesting set up & radar with this little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The 0z Euro & 6z GFS still say to keep an eye on Sunday night into Monday am rain ending as snow chance. On to 12z… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: 32 - Light snow/Flurries Looks like a little bit of snow on the rooftops here, but nothing special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The snow is really pointed toward the MSV and LSV this time. A finger from the GL. Models were pretty decent with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Low of 28 and I can see from my train seat that it is currently lightly snowing in Elizabethtown as we make our stop. Hold on. You commute by train? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 It’s snowing lightly at MDT now. Maybe there is a chance for MDT to get on the board with a whole .1 of snow, but you can probably bet on just a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Must be a warm layer from overnight inversion because there's some sleet mixed in. But all roofs and mulch lightly covered...whoohoo, a legit trace! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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