CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: A record breaking/historic winter here to boot in 1996. Wiped out a 40" pack in days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...this is where you have to play a hunch and get subjective and anecdotal. We have just endured a several year stretch when essentially everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. I think this is the year that ends, especially since we are going to have a few rough years on tap in other year or two with descending solar triggering increasing geomagnetic fields. Could you expound on this further? Or have you in any of your write ups that you could direct me to? I'm not familiar with this and am curious about the mechanics and analogs of prior instances of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You would think winter is about to be canceled if you listen to people in the NYC subforum. This subforum is top notch. No one is canceling winter-it was simply stated that it looks warm through xmas. That's not canceling winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Layman said: Could you expound on this further? Or have you in any of your write ups that you could direct me to? I'm not familiar with this and am curious about the mechanics and analogs of prior instances of this happening. 1-3 years after solar max, solar wind picks up and aids in the distribution of geomagnetic energy throughout the earth's atmosphere...this is important because solar wind and geomagnetic energy are correlated with a stronger PV and +NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s unbearable. Mr Tauntmeh is a good name for that guy. Enjoy the rain homie. that period around the 20th is pretty hostile looking. Not sure how anyone can expect any other than rain, regardless of how far out it is. The synoptic setup doesn’t scream “snow” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s unbearable. Mr Tauntmeh is a good name for that guy. MehauntonBlizzard2013? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1-3 years after solar max, solar wind picks up and aids in the distribution of geomagnetic energy throughout the earth's atmosphere...this is important because solar wind and geomagnetic energy are correlated with a stronger PV and +NAO. Here is an excerpt from last month's publication. In the case of the 1986-1987 winter season, given that solar minimum occurred during the prior fall in September of 1986, that particular season occurred near the solar minimum at the onset of the ascending phase. This is consistent with the research marginally favoring a negative NAO. The 1994-1995 cold season coincided with the descending phase of solar cycle 22 given that the minimum was observed in August of 1996, which also corroborates the research of Meliniemi et al that favors a +NAO during this portion of the solar cycle. The 2006-2007 winter season also took place during the descending phase of solar cycle 23, as the minimum was in December 2008. This season featured both a +NAO and exorbitantly potent PV in the seasonal mean. However, the correlation is not always evinced so strongly, as was the case with respect to the 2002-2003 and 2004-2005 seasons. In these cases, the increased geomagnetic energy and enhanced solar winds that accompany the descending phase of the solar cycle presumably partially negated a potentially strong blocking signal from two weak to moderate Modoki El Niño events. Thus they were essentially neutral within the polar domain in the seasonal mean. The view can also be expanded in order to consider the older El Niño analogs. All three of the basin-wide 1925-1926, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966 analogs occurred during the ascending phase of the solar cycle and featured a great deal of high latitude blocking. The fact that the 1991-1992 winter occurred during the descending phase of solar cycle 22 in conjunction with a stronger Pacific dipole allowing El Niño to express more assertively in the hemisphere, is likely the reason why that season differed so dramatically within the polar domain despite a fairly similar SST anomaly profile (EMI). It is extra tropical influences of this sort that largely dictate what transpires within the polar domain in the absence of an overwhelming signal from ENSO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 I think the storm on 12/24/94 will be classified as tropical from some rumors I heard. At the least STS. That was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 As we are due to crest 60 on Sunday here.....I am somewhat optimistic reading this. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-winter-forecast-cold-anomaly-snow-united-states-pattern-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Enjoy the rain homie. I am as ill equipped as any weenie on this board to mentally tolerate that period around the 20th because its pretty hostile looking right before Xmas. This is why I assume rain and constantly project that psychological defensive body armor onto everyone else. 2 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was a good one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: You would think winter is about to be canceled if you listen to people in the NYC subforum. This subforum is top notch. How is that different from any of the other 80-90% of years where snow hasn't fallen yet in early December there? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The GFS does get some weak mixed-layer CAPE into eastern sections early Monday morning so that is something to watch for getting 55-60+ mph gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: How is that different from any of the other 80-90% of years where snow hasn't fallen yet in early December there? They cancel winter if they get 2-3'' of snow when they were expecting 4-5''. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Enjoy the rain homie. that period around the 20th is pretty hostile looking. Not sure how anyone can expect any other than rain, regardless of how far out it is. The synoptic setup doesn’t scream “snow” Another dumb post….for two weeks out. You told us November was gonna be a torch from two weeks out too… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MehauntonBlizzard2013? Even better. Good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Another dumb post….for two weeks out. Beer I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the storm on 12/24/94 will be classified as tropical from some rumors I heard. At the least STS. That was a good one. Sounds like that one rocked. I’ll take a tropical grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: They cancel winter if they get 2-3'' of snow when they were expecting 4-5''. The problem with them is that they are very impressionable and you have a very knowledgeable poster like Bluewave, who is driven by a neurotic overcompensation style agenda, so he always uses his power to seek out avenues for warmth that are usually connected to CC. He is like a TauntonBlizzard 2.0 in that he finds scientific support for this body armor. They are all Bluewave foot soldeirs.....he is like warm bias "Krang" from Nina Turtles back in the day. 4 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 "Shredderrrrr...the MJO will remain in phase fiiiiiivvveeee"...all of the little west Pacific MJO Maritime foot soldiers follow suit lol 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Didn't realize it, but BOS officially got 0.2" yesterday....so that's first measurable for them. Still think PVD and BDL are waiting on first measurable. ORH is sitting at 3.0" from November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: How is that different from any of the other 80-90% of years where snow hasn't fallen yet in early December there? Not one person in the NYC sub forum has cancelled winter. People are saying wait until January and he is throwing a tantrum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 Who would be Shredder....toss up between Allsnow and Snowski.... I give the edge to the latter. The tri state technodrome lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who would be Shredder....toss up between Allsnow and Snowski I give the edge to the latter. Snowman19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are better for the time around Christmas. The end of the 06z GEFS looked pretty nice...I don't trust anything beyond about D9-10 though right now because the swings and inconsistency have been remarkable compared to the usual D11-16 variance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 The eye ball at the top is an exquisitely shaped PV right at the north pole....tighter than a bull's ass at flytime hahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 Yes. Allsnow and Snowski are Bebop and Rocksteady 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The eye ball at the top is an exquisitely shaped PV right at the north pole....tighter than a bull's ass at flytime hahahha Who would be these guys?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sounds like that one rocked. I’ll take a tropical grinch. Working at Pfizer in Groton Surge came up the Thames all at once. Winds over hurricane force shredded a bunch of tanks skins at Pfizer. No power at home Christmas day which sucked 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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