Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

The map isn't popping up but thank you! 3 inches for Richmond, what do you think as far as 6Z € 5 inches for Midlothian? Sorry I'm voice texting if this doesn't come through clear lol

[jlewis1111]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ513&warncounty=VAC041&firewxzone=VAZ513&local_place1=5 Miles WSW Midlothian VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=37.4851&lon=-77.7232

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

The map isn't popping up but thank you! 3 inches for Richmond, what do you think as far as 6Z € 5 inches for Midlothian? Sorry I'm voice texting if this doesn't come through clear lol

3-4 it  looks  like.

[jlewis1111]

 

Midlothian area

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, south central,
  and southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

 

[jlewis1111]

I just dont see this verifying but will see

[ldub23]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

I just dont see this verifying but will see

Right  now all of VA needs to hope it  cant  go any more south and  its  better from here. At  least  this isnt fri morning.

[jlewis1111]

I dont pay attention to the 6z and 18z models so much so will see at noon today. 

[yoda]

Good luck all down there.  While I am disappointed... I hope you all get decent snows

[eaglesin2011]

I think 3-7 is a great call at this point imo … It’s going to be all about where the dry slot  develops & pushes through… Again, I would rather see this storm go off the mid coast of NC then explode closer to the NC/VA border… We be  more in the screw zone here in the Ric that happened .

[RVASnowLover]

2-4” in RIC. Cutting it close down in SEVA. Looks great for the mountains 

[wasnow215]

17 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

I just dont see this verifying but will see

I don't either-They must really still expect this to come north. Maybe a WWA

[RVASnowLover]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Morning reading material.

[eaglesin2011]

Again, we don’t want it to move that much more north than it already is.. Dry air would kill us even more .. 3-7 is perfect for me.. I actually would like to be able to get out of my neighborhood in the next week lol

[ldub23]

If you want good  news the SREF has a  general 0.7 of  precip over central and SEVA which if we get  15-1 rates  could  be  10+

[eaglesin2011]

The main mode of disagreement continues to be the
battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a
very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains,
and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast
late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping
significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central
VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more
suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite
solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA
and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a
"piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the
local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across
the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending
north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an
initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as
early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through
Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm
may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be
very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF
could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be
efficient on area roads given temperatures well below
freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this
feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the
coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are
well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA.

This is what really will make it or break it for most of our area..

 

[ldub23]

7-8 across the area at  10:1 rates

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

If you want good  news the SREF has a  general 0.7 of  precip over central and SEVA which if we get  15-1 rates  could  be  10+

SREF looked great but I honestly don't know how accurate it is. 

[RVASnowLover]

[Stormpc]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

You are  in the sweet spot  on this  one. 12+ very  possible

Yeah imagine 2 years in a row if that happens.

Not sure of anything with this one. Very complicated system. Huge boom and bust potential.

[RVASnowLover]

[Ephesians2]

12z NAM looks better at 500mb at 45h. West of both 00z and 06z and a tad less confluence 

[RVASnowLover]

[RVASnowLover]

NAM is dry except for far SEVA

[JB Fins]

2-4" would put us at or over climo.  So, not going to pout but still want to break through that 6" ceiling.  

[SoCoWx]

I’ll never forget that storm last winter, not only because of how insane it was to watch it snow nonstop for 12 hours and Richmond somehow only picked up like an inch while Norfolk had a blizzard warning, but also how DT was practically cussing out the whole 757 that day.


.

[SoCoWx]

2-4" would put us at or over climo.  So, not going to pout but still want to break through that 6" ceiling.  

Doesn’t seem like there’s much chance that’ll happen until we get the fabled moderate, west based El Niño again.


.

[Ephesians2]

27 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

NAM is dry except for far SEVA

We are getting most of the trends we want at 500mb but it looks like we have another low developing way offshore robbing moisture from the main one

[Berlin1926]

This seems very sensible. DTs first call appears on track.

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[CavalierHoo]

Seems a Winter Storm Watch has gone up for Chesterfield thru Sunday.

[JB Fins]

That will be two very reasonable, solid map wins for DT.  I do miss some of the fireworks he provided on Eastern back in the day.  Always entertaining.