Dark Star Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Don’t expect much rain tomorrow You can see shunting already. Dry air in place. I thought this was more of a winter phenomenon in these parts. Cold air is much drier, so I figured a tropical system would have much more moisture to overcome any dry air (speaking only of the northeast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 With each NHC update, Ophelia northward progress is slowed, with it dissipating well to our south. Seems plausible that the current predictions are too high 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Don’t expect much rain tomorrow LOL I see you are in winter mode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Winter will be fun 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 37 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: With each NHC update, Ophelia northward progress is slowed, with it dissipating well to our south. Seems plausible that the current predictions are too high We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Regardless of precip, it’s going to be pure hell for those competing in the JB 1/2 Ironman race tomorrow. Imagine pedaling East on OP into 30 mph sustained. I was at RM3 earlier, and it was cranking out of the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Regardless of precip, it’s going to be pure hell for those competing in the JB 1/2 Ironman race tomorrow. Imagine pedaling East on OP into 30 mph sustained. I was at RM3 earlier, and it was cranking out of the east Surprised it isn't canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Tomorrow 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: RGEM not impressed with tomorrow's round. Dries it up and mainly light rain during the day tomorrow with round 1. Not even a half inch for me. But whether we get just a half inch tomorrow or the wetter models end up being right and it's over an inch, I don't care. Either way it's a miserable saturday with outdoor plans ruined for everyone. Especially mariners. It has been a dreadful Sept. Again. Long swells, rough surf, strong tides. Then we start with nor'easters. You try to explain this to regulators who close fishing seasons til Oct and Nov and they ignore you. We are talking about throwing in the towel already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Surprised it isn't canceled. Maybe they will cancel, but it is such a big event, without any severe threat, good chance it won’t be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Especially mariners. It has been a dreadful Sept. Again. Long swells, rough surf, strong tides. Then we start with nor'easters. You try to explain this to regulators who close fishing seasons til Oct and Nov and they ignore you. We are talking about throwing in the towel already. The fluke season was horrible this year and many days of rough seas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Regardless of precip, it’s going to be pure hell for those competing in the JB 1/2 Ironman race tomorrow. Imagine pedaling East on OP into 30 mph sustained. I was at RM3 earlier, and it was cranking out of the east Ahhhh haaaaa! I am life guarding the race! I’m good friends with the water safety coordinator and he’s insisting as of now it’s a go. I tried to no avail to convince him that the orientation of Zach’s bay being east to west means the chop is funneled right to the race start! Well, I fully expect them to cancel in the am… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Surprised it isn't canceled. The race or the precipitation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Especially mariners. It has been a dreadful Sept. Again. Long swells, rough surf, strong tides. Then we start with nor'easters. You try to explain this to regulators who close fishing seasons til Oct and Nov and they ignore you. We are talking about throwing in the towel already. Terrible. Haven’t gone out on the boat since Labor Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ahhhh haaaaa! I am life guarding the race! I’m good friends with the water safety coordinator and he’s insisting as of now it’s a go. I tried to no avail to convince him that the orientation of Zach’s bay being east to west means the chop is funneled right to the race start! Well, I fully expect them to cancel in the am… Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 50 minutes ago, psv88 said: Winter will be fun This is the usual noise before a storm. Of course its going to rain…on and off for 3 days. 2 inches, 3 inches, 1 inch…To 90% of the population it makes no difference…its a 3 day weekend of indoor plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Gusta have picked up a bit here in Bayonnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The fluke season was horrible this year and many days of rough seas I don't even bother with fluke. We were trying to get out for porgies, and they had closed the season til Aug 1st because the draggers are depleting them ( as they have done to fluke, winter flounder, whiting, and so on ) so of course shut the recreational fishery down, and the weather started turning to crap not long after. That species will move when storms keep rolling through. Hopefully some stripers will come in after the storm. Of course, new restrictions on them too, but I have bonus tags. We used to catch fluke right off Perth Amboy on the old Sea Pigeon. RIP Capt Marty Haines....they did a touching send off for him in NY harbor. You want fluke now,you have to go all the way to the old Ambrose tower grounds. Gets mighty nasty out there.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Dark Star said: The race or the precipitation? Heh...the race. The surf will still be quite hazardous. It is already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Rmine1 said: With each NHC update, Ophelia northward progress is slowed, with it dissipating well to our south. Seems plausible that the current predictions are too high You're very annoying. It's going to rain tomorrow. There's massive feeder bands developing and will move north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: Terrible. Haven’t gone out on the boat since Labor Day. Same. Thank God I had a rental on Messalonskee in Maine this summer and the fishing was top notch. Didn't need a boat.But even the last trip there it poured like a tropical storm, week before Labor Day. Cold and wet and horrible fishing. had to cut the trip short because my daughter was in the ER; 7 hour drive. Never figured out what was wrong with her, they think it was a kidney stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Naval station at Virginia Beach reporting sustained at 36mph and gusts to 51mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You're very annoying. It's going to rain tomorrow. There's massive feeder bands developing and will move north. Welcome to the club. When did I ever say that it wasn’t going to rain? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 The system is very hybrid like. Although there is a tropical core the system is stretched out like a subtropical system with tons of energy well to the NE. That energy is what will give us the rain/wind impacts up here. Just look at the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I don't even bother with fluke. We were trying to get out for porgies, and they had closed the season til Aug 1st because the draggers are depleting them ( as they have done to fluke, winter flounder, whiting, and so on ) so of course shut the recreational fishery down, and the weather started turning to crap not long after. That species will move when storms keep rolling through. Hopefully some stripers will come in after the storm. Of course, new restrictions on them too, but I have bonus tags. We used to catch fluke right off Perth Amboy on the old Sea Pigeon. RIP Capt Marty Haines....they did a touching send off for him in NY harbor. You want fluke now,you have to go all the way to the old Ambrose tower grounds. Gets mighty nasty out there.... 100% You’re not the first person to tell me that you don’t Bother with fluke anymore. The sticks off the tip of the hook and where the old orphanage use to be on Staten Island are all fished out. I don’t even waste my time anymore in thay area for fluke. I have had luck at strawberry rocks and (like you said) the doughnut hole at the entrance to the Ambrose channel. On a rough day you’re not making it out there on my boat. The trade off has been some real good striper seasons. The last two falls have been amazing by the tip of the hook and up the Raritan bay by Keyport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 They don't cancel those big events. It's all about the $$$ .I work for parks not to mentions all that already signed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Just look at radar, rains already showing up on our radar and is steadily moving north with little interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Just look at radar, rains already showing up on our radar and is steadily moving north with little interference. There's been a band trying to push north since 3pm lol (not that I agree with the dry camp) but to say the air isn't dry is denial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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