Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: 2.49 house 2.81 Fairfield We ended up very close to 2 1/2" here. Will push to avoid this being the driest year ever. GFS is totally dry over its entire run though (LSV.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Looking at Ens guidance, EPS/GEPS showing signs that our dry spell may be a thing of the past. Heres the EPS for viewing pleasure. GEPS is a little more generous as it throws back decent precip into CTP. GEFS is notably more dry and mirrors GFS qpf, but 2 outta 3 aint bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 and here is the last 2 runs of the GFS for qpf distribution. yes folks, this is 6 hrs later and why I often cringe at long run Op guidance, but you be your own judge. I just like postin pics. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Two things I took from this storm, with both being things we all agree on and hope to carry forward through the winter season, are that it was modeled extremely well and was a bit of an over-performer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Super duper foggy this am. Very low visibility in HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 .07" this morning, storm total of 2.21" 48 and mostly cloudy, should easily reach the 50s again today. (Temp reached 51.3 overnight.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Two things I took from this storm, with both being things we all agree on and hope to carry forward through the winter season, are that it was modeled extremely well and was a bit of an over-performer. Agreed. The amount of mod-hvy qpf was something I have not seen since last winter or early spring. Hopefully a good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 @Mount Joy Snowman MDT is .6 AN right now for the month and I suspect that goes up the next 1-2 days especially with a current standing low of 46 for the day...will they end Nov AN, BN or within .1 of either side of the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 2.2" on the dot. Highest qpf event since summer 2021 when an afternoon of thunderstorms dropped 5". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Looks like a winter morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 We picked up a total of 2.07" of rain with 0.49" falling since midnight. The 1.58" that fell yesterday was our largest single day rain total since the 2.55" that fell on September 24th. A couple of dry and seasonably chilly days will take us through Thanksgiving Day with highs today just north of 50 and tomorrow likely staying in the 40's it most spots. Much colder by Friday through the weekend with highs on Saturday remaining in the 30's. There is a slim chance at some snow or rain showers by Sunday night. Records for today: High 72 (1931) / Low 13 (1964) / Rain 1.86" (1991) / Snow 1.7" (1989) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like a winter morning. Yea, last winter.....in the 50's. LOL. The hot house this week, Lancaster, is already in the mid 50's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @Mount Joy Snowman MDT is .6 AN right now for the month and I suspect that goes up the next 1-2 days especially with a current standing low of 46 for the day...will they end Nov AN, BN or within .1 of either side of the line? Putting my feet to the fire; I like it! MJS performs best under pressure! *whispers* I'll stop talking in third person now Back to business. The last couple of days of the month are still pretty far out so tough to get an exact read on, but I'm going with temps a little cooler than what some of the long-range commercial forecasts are currently showing. All in all, I calculated a final nine-day average temp of 38.6, which would be good for a negative 2.5 degree departure off the current average temp of 47.0. Put it all together, and I'm predicting a final mean monthly temp of 44.5, a few tenths below the climate normal period average and a few tenths above the entire period of record average. Put simply, can't get much more of an average November than that. Book it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Putting my feet to the fire; I like it! MJS performs best under pressure! *whispers* I'll stop talking in third person now Back to business. The last couple of days of the month are still pretty far out so tough to get an exact read on, but I'm going with temps a little cooler than what some of the long-range commercial forecasts are currently showing. All in all, I calculated a final nine-day average temp of 38.6, which would be good for a negative 2.5 degree departure off the current average temp of 47.0. Put it all together, and I'm predicting a final mean monthly temp of 44.5, a few tenths below the climate normal period average and a few tenths above the entire period of record average. Put simply, can't get much more of an average November than that. Book it. Good stuff! Makes my head hurt to do all that mathin'. MJS in the book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, last winter.....in the 50's. LOL. The hot house this week, Lancaster, is already in the mid 50's. Yeah haven't been outside just looks that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah haven't been outside just looks that way. It looks and feels just fine. Not sure most of us (non stat folks) really care if its upper 40's or lower 50's on 11/22. Add 10-20 to that....now that's a different story. 52 currently here in the hot spot of the LSV. NBD. Next week at this time will feel FRESH, but beyond that be warned....you may be warmed. Happy Turk Eve to all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Putting my feet to the fire; I like it! MJS performs best under pressure! *whispers* I'll stop talking in third person now Back to business. The last couple of days of the month are still pretty far out so tough to get an exact read on, but I'm going with temps a little cooler than what some of the long-range commercial forecasts are currently showing. All in all, I calculated a final nine-day average temp of 38.6, which would be good for a negative 2.5 degree departure off the current average temp of 47.0. Put it all together, and I'm predicting a final mean monthly temp of 44.5, a few tenths below the climate normal period average and a few tenths above the entire period of record average. Put simply, can't get much more of an average November than that. Book it. This is the stuff that makes you shine. Great insight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is the stuff that makes you shine. Great insight. Post of the month stuff even if it is not exact. Hard to make a call like that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 53 at 11am under slowly clearing skies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Nooner GFS at 114 is juicin up the atmosphere a bit, and 540 is over the hot bed of LSV Signals been there for a while now, so lets hope we see it grow and not fade. Norher and wester folk may approve this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 53 at 11am under slowly clearing skies. A bit cooler over here at 49. Have not had any sun yet. MDT has leaped Lanco and is 55/56. A recent rare occurrence where they are out pacing the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Dreaming: Today Partly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. West northwest wind 10 to 18 mph. Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 14. North wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Thanksgiving Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 7 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 23 to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 6 inches. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 25 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: Dreaming: Today Partly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. West northwest wind 10 to 18 mph. Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 14. North wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Thanksgiving Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 7 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 23 to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 6 inches. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 25 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. What universe is that in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: What universe is that in? The Myra asteroid belt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 I have now been at my current home location for 20 years this week here in East Nantmeal. I have taken daily weather observations every day of those 20 years. I have used the exact same station equipment (Davis Vantage Pro 2 solar fan aspirated model) sited at the exact same spot on my property. I thought I would begin to share some of those individual 20 year records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 2014 was cold.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 47 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: I have now been at my current home location for 20 years this week here in East Nantmeal. I have taken daily weather observations every day of those 20 years. I have used the exact same station equipment (Davis Vantage Pro 2 solar fan aspirated model) sited at the exact same spot on my property. I thought I would begin to share some of those individual 20 year records. Thanks for posting. Here is the same chart for MDT and Williamsport summers as a compare. Summer is based on seasonal met summer as defined by the NWS...June, July and August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 This is interesting so going to expand on this back farther and show the area where things have changed as to what many of us notice (and this has been stated a lot by many here.) Red line showing the cooler years are going up consistently. This past summer was seen as a success for not being too hot but was hotter than any other "cooler year" since the early 80's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 8 hours ago, pasnownut said: and here is the last 2 runs of the GFS for qpf distribution. yes folks, this is 6 hrs later and why I often cringe at long run Op guidance, but you be your own judge. I just like postin pics. 6z Purely a qualitative thought on my end, but it seems like the 06z guidance is routinely dry year after year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Purely a qualitative thought on my end, but it seems like the 06z guidance is routinely dry year after year. Most people know to take any GFS mention (op or ens) past 5 days with a huge gRAIN of salt when it talks about qpf or slp locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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