Central PA Autumn 2023

[paweather]

34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is the first step in the progression....showing up on the 10+ days means it is coming some time.    That is still first half of October so would not be too shabby, 

Yep all good, just joking around. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Man, I'm a sucker for statistics. But even I am taken aback sometimes.  It's crazy seeing how the coldest temperatures observed in many locations for the entire month of September in recent years are now sometimes roughly the same or even warmer than the mean monthly minima from many historic Septembers.

I know many of you said people don't care about low temperatures, but to me stuff like this is just plain sobering to see. It's like this at many places too.

Harrisburg - warmest absolute monthly minimum temperatures

[Note: It dropped to 50F today, which is not yet reflected in this]

Harrisburg - coldest mean monthly minima

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Elkins, West Virginia

Warmest Absolute Low Temperatures

Coldest Monthly Mean Minima

Wow! 

[Itstrainingtime]

@TheClimateChanger - why exactly is the data sobering to you? Please help me understand, I'm not being critical. 

I guess we're all different. There are things in life that are sobering to me - losing my father tragically and instantly to a massive heart attack in 2015. Going through a very rough divorce in 1995. Watching innocent people die in random acts of violence. Those events I find very sobering. 

I just want to understand why warmer nights are so difficult for you. Truly. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@TheClimateChanger - why exactly is the data sobering to you? Please help me understand, I'm not being critical. 

I guess we're all different. There are things in life that are sobering to me - losing my father tragically and instantly to a massive heart attack in 2015. Going through a very rough divorce in 1995. Watching innocent people die in random acts of violence. Those events I find very sobering. 

I just want to understand why warmer nights are so difficult for you. Truly. 

I'm not TCC but the warming earth is troubling and sobering to me because for future generations it's going to really upset the food/water supply and make living much more difficult. 

And the fact nearly half the country DGAF is just icing on the somber cake.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm not TCC but the warming earth is troubling and sobering to me because for future generations it's going to really upset the food/water supply and make living much more difficult. 

And the fact nearly half the country DGAF is just icing on the somber cake.

Admittedly, I do not know/am not educated nearly enough to fully understand the ramifications and timing of a warming earth. I certainly don't want to be naïve, either. I have grandkids that are just learning to walk and talk and I am concerned about the world they'll be a part of after I'm done on this earth. 

Having said that, I'm more concerned about issues other than this.

[Anduril]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Admittedly, I do not know/am not educated nearly enough to fully understand the ramifications and timing of a warming earth. I certainly don't want to be naïve, either. I have grandkids that are just learning to walk and talk and I am concerned about the world they'll be a part of after I'm done on this earth. 

Having said that, I'm more concerned about issues other than this.

People always have more and better things to be concerned about. That's why we're racing arms wide into a pretty shitty future for our kids and grand kids. Is there much any one of us can do for it? Nope.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm not TCC but the warming earth is troubling and sobering to me because for future generations it's going to really upset the food/water supply and make living much more difficult. 

And the fact nearly half the country DGAF is just icing on the somber cake.

I don't think half the country DGAF, rather they understand there iust isn't much they can do about it on an individual level and don't want to see us make massive sacrifices as a nation that may hurt us in various unforeseen ways while doing very little to stem the tide of global climate, particularly when many other nations do nothing.

I also don't think most see it as an existential threat that is going to take down all of humanity.  I mean, let's not forget we still live on a planet where far more people die every year of cold temps rather than warm ones, and the vast majority of flora and fauna thrive in warmer climates than cold ones.  Heck, we have already seen a significant greening of the planet in terms of expanded plant life.  Also, the threats are extremely slow moving.  It's not like rising sea levels are just going to wipe out entire civilizations.  No, people will just slowly move inland over time and adapt to the changing conditions, as they always have.  And that's IF the sea levels even get to that point of crisis, which I have my doubts about. 

Look, the planet is certainly warming but the climate is never static, and while it may be warming at a rate faster than we'd like, measures are being taken on a macro level to mitigate that, and again, much preferable to global cooling, which by the way all the experts were warning of just a few decades ago, a mere blip on the climatological scale.  Heck, I've had guys at work showing me their textbooks from the 70s and 80s where entire chapters were devoted to global cooling and the impending mini ice age and the measures that could be taken to get the Earth to absorb more sunlight, like laying certain materials across huge swaths of the Arctic to prevent solar reflection.  Think about that haha.

I am fine with moving towards some alternative and renewable forms of energy because it's just better regardless of climate effects and we know certain fuels are in finite supply on this planet, but I absolutely see no need to panic about any of it.  As has been said before, the same people who can't tell you what the weather will do in a week want you to believe with 100% certainty what the climate will do in 100 years.  A little bit of humility could go a long way for these folks.  And hey, if it means a few more people moving back north or less people fleeing to deserts like Arizona and Nevada, well, I think we can all agree that's a good thing haha.  Man.  Will.  Adapt.  I digress.

[Anduril]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I don't think half the country DGAF, rather they understand there iust isn't much they can do about it on an individual level and don't want to see us make massive sacrifices as a nation that may hurt us in various unforeseen ways while doing very little to stem the tide of global climate, particularly when many other nations do nothing.

I also don't think most see it as an existential threat that is going to take down all of humanity.  I mean, let's not forget we still live on a planet where far more people die every year of cold temps rather than warm ones, and the vast majority of flora and fauna thrive in warmer climates than cold ones.  Heck, we have already seen a significant greening of the planet in terms of expanded plant life.  Also, the threats are extremely slow moving.  It's not like rising sea levels are just going to wipe out entire civilizations.  No, people will just slowly move inland over time and adapt to the changing conditions, as they always have.  And that's IF the sea levels even get to that point of crisis, which I have my doubts about. 

Look, the planet is certainly warming but the climate is never static, and while it may be warming at a rate faster than we'd like, measures are being taken on a macro level to mitigate that, and again, much preferable to global cooling, which by the way all the experts were warning of just a few decades ago, a mere blip on the climatological scale.  Heck, I've had guys at work showing me their textbooks from the 70s and 80s where entire chapters were devoted to global cooling and the impending mini ice age and the measures that could be taken to get the Earth to absorb more sunlight, like laying certain materials across huge swaths of the Arctic to prevent solar reflection.  Think about that haha.

I am fine with moving towards some alternative and renewable forms of energy because it's just better regardless of climate effects and we know certain fuels are in finite supply on this planet, but I absolutely see no need to panic about any of it.  As has been said before, the same people who can't tell you what the weather will do in a week want you to believe with 100% certainty what the climate will do in 100 years.  A little bit of humility could go a long way for these folks.  And hey, if it means a few more people moving back north or less people fleeing to deserts like Arizona and Nevada, well, I think we can all agree that's a good thing haha.  Man.  Will.  Adapt.  I digress.

Yea, the whole cooling thing from the 70's was a bit media hyped https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/that-70s-myth-did-climate-science-really-call-for-a-coming-ice-age/

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Admittedly, I do not know/am not educated nearly enough to fully understand the ramifications and timing of a warming earth. I certainly don't want to be naïve, either. I have grandkids that are just learning to walk and talk and I am concerned about the world they'll be a part of after I'm done on this earth. 

Having said that, I'm more concerned about issues other than this.

My personal opinion, which is worth how much I charge for it, is that places near water are where the focus should (and often is) be set as to possible climate changing events.  Many of us may be too old to see it but unless the current/constant water level rises start to subside, I think many of the areas we currently visit for recreation will be ruined in the not-too-distant future.   Are there other large-scale catastrophes right around the corner?  Maybe...maybe not.   But I think we have enough scientific evidence right now to discern that many areas of the coast that have built up (hello Miami) are at risk in the near to mid future. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Anduril said:

Yea, the whole cooling thing from the 70's was a bit media hyped https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/that-70s-myth-did-climate-science-really-call-for-a-coming-ice-age/

I will say nothing further on this issue beyond this post because I  doubt I  will come across as anything other than acidic. But i don't believe we can believe any article written by either side unless it has been peer reviewed and commented on by both sides of the issue. Everybody receiving a paycheck in journalism has an agenda and everbody else has an opinion they want to push. I  equate these kinds of articles as using a forecast to verify a future forecast period. 

One last thing. I'm in my 60's and was already a weenie in the 70's, and there WAS a lot of news on the issue of the climate going colder. In fact, I do remember seeing a Time cover story suggesting climate was turning colder.

I'm done. 

[Anduril]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I will say nothing further on this issue beyond this post because I  doubt I  will come across as anything other than acidic. But i don't believe we can believe any article written by either side unless it has been peer reviewed and commented on by both sides of the issue. Everybody receiving a paycheck in journalism has an agenda and everbody else has an opinion they want to push. I  equate these kinds of articles as using a forecast to verify a future forecast period. 

One last thing. I'm in my 60's and was already a weenie in the 70's, and there WAS a lot of news on the issue of the climate going colder. In fact, I do remember seeing a Time cover story suggesting climate was turning colder.

I'm done. 

So didnt bother to read the article, did ya?

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Anduril said:

So didnt bother to read the article, did ya?

Nope. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

My personal opinion, which is worth how much I charge for it, is that places near water are where the focus should (and often is) be set as to possible climate changing events.  Many of us may be too old to see it but unless the current/constant water level rises start to subside, I think many of the areas we currently visit for recreation will be ruined in the not-too-distant future.   Are there other large-scale catastrophes right around the corner?  Maybe...maybe not.   But I think we have enough scientific evidence right now to discern that many areas of the coast that have built up (hello Miami) are at risk in the near to mid future. 

Rodanthe NC is losing oceanfront homes every year, falling victim to the advancing ocean waters. 

That is all the factual info I have and like Mitch, I am moving on as well.

[mitchnick]

It's  OK to believe these Gfs temps. I'm telling ya', I'm feeling this.

[Itstrainingtime]

YES!!!!!!!!

[Blizzard of 93]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's  OK to believe these Gfs temps. I'm telling ya', I'm feeling this.

Looks like a low forecast of 31 in DuBois!

[Atomixwx]

Baseball is better when the Orioles are good.

Tonight is a good night for baseball.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Blizzard of 93]

After reading all of this great discussion today, I realized that I’m still waiting on the Climate Change poster to provide stats on PA temps from 1350 AD & 350 BC just so we can compare…

My guess is that he can’t find these numbers? Was it a warm or cold period? What were the ocean temperatures?

i suppose that I should just accept that history just started 100 years ago or when the satellite era began!

[Blizzard of 93]

The earth is around 4.5 billion years old, yet some are worried about warming temperatures over the last 50 years…

In the words of the great Pittsburgh poster…”LOL” !

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The earth is around 4.5 billion years old, yet some are worried about warming temperatures over the last 50 years…

In the words of the great Pittsburgh poster…”LOL” !

Embarrassing take on a science forum.

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Baseball is better when the Orioles are good.

Tonight is a good night for baseball.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I couldn't say it better. The AL East standings are a beautiful sight to see. So happy for us Orioles fans everywhere.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, TimB said:

Embarrassing take on a science forum.

Lol

[Atomixwx]

Embarrassing take on a science forum.

You spelled "garbage" wrong.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, TimB said:

Embarrassing take on a science forum.

What were temps like every decade for the past 4.5 billion years in PA or anywhere on the planet for that matter?

No one can seem to answer that….

[Blizzard of 93]

19 minutes ago, TimB said:

Embarrassing take on a science forum.

Is it embarrassing because my question makes too much sense?

Please…lol….

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What were temps like every decade for the past 4.5 billion years in PA or anywhere on the planet for that matter?

No one can seem to answer that….

The ground truth is now two of the last four winters have been among the worst in the 150 years we do have on record and you’re scared it’s going to become an every other year thing that will make this hobby unenjoyable for the remainder of your time here. We all are.

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I couldn't say it better. The AL East standings are a beautiful sight to see. So happy for us Orioles fans everywhere.

 

Congrats to the Orioles!

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, TimB said:

The ground truth is now two of the last four winters have been among the worst in the 150 years we do have on record and you’re scared it’s going to become an every other year thing that will make this hobby unenjoyable for the remainder of your time here. We all are.

We have had terrible snow Winters during every decade on record in Harrisburg over the past 100 years or so. We also have great snow & cold years mixed in most decades as well.

My point is, who knows how much snow or how warm or cold it was thousands or millions of years ago in this region?

Also, last year, while we were warm with very little snow, the western USA had record setting snow & cold in many locations.

[anotherman]

We have had terrible snow Winters during every decade on record in Harrisburg over the past 100 years or so. We also have great snow & cold years mixed in most decades as well.
My point is, who knows how much snow or how warm or cold it was thousands or millions of years ago in this region?
Also, last year, while we were warm with very little snow, the western USA had record setting snow & cold in many locations.

JB? Is that you?