andyhb Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Getting even better. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Basically a perfectly formed inner core on the latest microwave satellite imagery. This is likely going to be pushing Cat 5 in this first recon pass. It’s amazing. HAFS can’t even keep up with the rate of intensification. We’ll see how high it goes before the ERC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, andyhb said: Getting even better. Haha beat me to it. Recon down to 10k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, allgame830 said: At what time will Recon be in the Hurricane? Another hour maybe to get to the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The new HAFS-A is literal weenie bait, gets down to 900 mb with 178 kt (205 mph) sustained winds in the next 36 hours. That would break the Atlantic record for wind speed by 15 mph (Allen, 1980). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s amazing. HAFS can’t even keep up with the rate of intensification. We’ll see how high it goes before the ERC. The hafs did show that ring signature though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Haha beat me to it. Recon down to 10k ft. Going to be a rough ride for them. Hopefully no embedded tornados for them this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I think the whole weather community is going to be watching recon data flow in. It will be very interesting to see how recon compares to models, and how well the SPC has done in estimating its intensity so far. I think we could be dealing with a cat 5 very shortly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Recon in storm and approaching the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Holy moly. 928.0mb extrapolated pressure. Peak FL winds of 140kt and SFMR of 138, 139, 144kts. Wow. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Not sure anyone else caught it but the 18z GFS turns Lee into a blizzard in parts of SE Canada 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 That temperature is nuts 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Holy moly. 928.0mb extrapolated pressure. Peak FL winds of 140kt and SFMR of 138, 139, 144kts. Wow. Quickest cat 5 in history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hotair said: I believe these winds are from the SW eyewall, assuming the NE eyewall is stronger, I think the case can be made this is already a Cat 5. Should know soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: I believe these winds are from the SW eyewall, assuming the NE eyewall is stronger, I think the case can be made this is already a Cat 5. Should know soon. First pass. Correct. This is CAT 5 material We should know more in about 10 minutes as it punches into the NE quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Quickest cat 5 in history Easily. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Rarely does the first recon mission into a storm meet expectations like this but holy moly 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 HAFS-A drops this thing to 900 MB and is considerably too weak currently. Lee might have a legit shot at sub-900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 First center dropsonde puts minimum pressure in the low 930s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 This has got to be one insane mission these recon hunters are doing right now seriously hats off to them! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: First center dropsonde puts minimum pressure in the low 930s. 34 knot winds suggests the minimum is lower than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Usually when they RI this quickly pressure and winds aren't 100% aligned with what we see in classic "all-timers" with regards to intensity. Definitely could see this getting sub 920 or even 915 if even 25% of the rate of RI continued for another few hours. No signs of an ERC yet and makes sense since this is relatively early in its lifecycle and just became a tight core overnight last night. Can't rule out a record low pressure for this part of the ATL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 There is still plenty of room for the satellite appearance to improve. Once the pressure gets down into the low 900s, the eye will become perfectly circular and the CDO will become uniformly thick with a distinct outer edge. Lee is nowhere near that, yet. Hurricane Jova, yesterday, had a very crisp, circular, core appearance. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Center sonde Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 23:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: LeeStorm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 8th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 16.9N 51.7WLocation: 589 statute miles (948 km) to the ENE (64°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 936mb (27.64 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.4°C (83.1°F) 26.0°C (79°F) Unavailable 925mb 103m (338 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 230° (from the SW) 41 knots (47 mph) 850mb 851m (2,792 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) About 20°C (68°F) 240° (from the WSW) 36 knots (41 mph) 700mb 2,558m (8,392 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) About 8°C (46°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 23:35Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 16.93N 51.69W- Time: 23:35:55ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 16.94N 51.67W- Time: 23:38:54ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)- Wind Speed: 42 knots (48 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 709mb to 934mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)- Wind Speed: 40 knots (46 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 936mb (Surface) 28.4°C (83.1°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 892mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.3°C (74°F) 850mb 25.0°C (77.0°F) About 20°C (68°F) 778mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) About 15°C (59°F) 748mb 24.8°C (76.6°F) About 13°C (55°F) 741mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) About 12°C (54°F) 715mb 26.6°C (79.9°F) About 8°C (46°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 936mb (Surface) Unavailable 934mb 220° (from the SW) 34 knots (39 mph) 931mb 225° (from the SW) 41 knots (47 mph) 900mb 235° (from the SW) 43 knots (49 mph) 866mb 240° (from the WSW) 42 knots (48 mph) 850mb 240° (from the WSW) 36 knots (41 mph) 821mb 235° (from the SW) 26 knots (30 mph) 795mb 255° (from the WSW) 27 knots (31 mph) 749mb 250° (from the WSW) 20 knots (23 mph) 722mb 265° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph) 709mb 260° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Hotair said: That temperature is nuts That’s got to be near record for the basin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Still waiting for the next set of obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 So about a 47mb pressure drop in 9 hrs assuming it was 983 at 11am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Easily. Unreal. It looked like this just last night, insane how much its strengthened in a day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Worth mentioning that none of the models had Lee as a Cat 5 at this hour. also, even if NHC waits until the 11 pm advisory to call it a Cat 5 it will still be a record for rapidLee intensifying to a 5 in the Atlantic 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now