Newman Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here. I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, Newman said: Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here. I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there? .10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime. Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather. Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: .10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime. Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather. Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy? I’m not the drought guy but my guess is globular worming is causing the Pocono permafrost to melt thus raising our water table. Only 0.09 overnight, 52F. Gusty, yellow jackets getting blown around. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Perfect Fall day with temps around 50, windy/breezy, college football and leaves falling. May get the urge to BBQ. Tuesday into Wednesday next shot at some rain? (1"+). Going get the leaves up Monday afternoon before the rain "Mats" them to the ground. Drought guy may be in ER w/these conditions. 50F/Breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 3 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Last year was a much later start....as this year we are running almost 6 degrees colder through the 1st 17 days of November compared to 2022. Regardless I've barely needed to use it which is nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally. Am still holding with not turning the system on yet. Because of all the dry air, I did get the humidifiers up and running in any case. I know once I put that hot air on, look out. It can get down to 19% without any humidification and any CAA. 2 hours ago, Newman said: Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here. I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there? I ended up with 0.01" of rain here between 1 - 2 am this morning and that makes it 0.07" for the month of November so far. October finished up with only 1.40". Ended up hitting 66 yesterday for a high and had a low of 47 this morning. It's currently a breezy, and sunny 51, with dp 28. Definitely feels "fall like" out there. Still have trees with leaves (mostly maples) but definitely well past peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 A/C bills kill me way more than heating (if I heat?) bills so bring on the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Many spots across the county had a frosty low in the 20's....the exceptions were some of the higher spots like where I am in East Nantmeal where we were no lower than 34 degrees this morning. Unfortunately, we are now almost 2" below normal rainfall for the month of November and 5.5" below our year to date average rain. The good news is that after the next coupled dry days we should see some beneficial rain moving in from southwest to northeast across the area on Tuesday afternoon. Most models agree on around 1.5" of rain before ending by daybreak on Wednesday. Below normal temps are likely for the rest of November. Records for today: High 74 (1913) / Low 12 (1924) / Rain 1.74" (1988) / Snow 3.0" (1955) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 The Euro ensemble keeps us solidly colder than normal from today right into Christmas week....GFS closer to normal to a little below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 History says the ECM weeklies are garbage. One only has to look at last winter at their constant flipping. Then there is the GFS with it's cold bias. Personally I think we are seeing the typical Nino early chill before the inevitable mild December time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 The only thing I'm interested in seeing this early in the game is how the models are handling the LR. Will these colder looks move up in time or is it another winter that's always just 10 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: The only thing I'm interested in seeing this early in the game is how the models are handling the LR. Will these colder looks move up in time or is it another winter that's always just 10 days away? Only ten days away for 90 days last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Today will be almost 10 degrees colder in spots compared to yesterday. A nice sunny fall day before rain moves in tomorrow morning. There is a chance some higher spots in NW Chesco could see a few flakes of snow or some ice pellets if the precipitation moves in fast enough in the AM. Either way it looks like between 1.5" to 2.0" of rain are possible tomorrow with chilly temps remaining in the low to mid 40's across the county. Below normal temps and dry weather look likely for the rest of the holiday week. Records for today: High 75 (1985) / Low 16 (1951) / Rain 1.80 (1952) / Snow 0.8" (1937) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 One yellowjacket/ one honeybee at the door today and one fly zapped with it in the mid 40's outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Our yellow jackets have died off. Glory to the cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Some of our neighbors to the west in Lancaster County have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week. Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 39F with sleet And so it begins No bees either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 El Niño just started, 43F/DP 38F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Big drops hitting the windows/45F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 11/18/2023 at 12:35 PM, RedSky said: .10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime. Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather. Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy? The evapotranspiration rates have been negligible the last few weeks as the colder nights reaching dew points have set in. In other words, not much of the stream flow is being utilized from the lack of intense heat now. The second main reason is that leaf photosynthesis production as ceased, thus ground water water is not being pulled out the soil for the tree roots. The combination has help keep the stream flows going. Tonights rain is a lifesaver and helps get the trees feet wet before the soil freezes in the next two weeks plus keep wildfire threats down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 The last two days of model runs have really gone downhill for snow production in the LV in the first week of December . I hope that changes after this storm passes. The 10 minutes of light sleet this morning should have been called "mood Pellets" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 The Sat. - Mon. splits for highs/lows were 58/34, 54/34, & 45/32. After a low of 34 this morning, I got up to 49 for a high. It took quite a bit to scour out the dry air to get something to hit the ground but it finally did and thankfully not in a gusher either. For the month through until today, there was only 0.07" of rain IMBY. Measurable rain hit here around 1 pm and so far I've picked up 0.90", the most significant 1-day amount since Oct. 14. It's currently 49 with light rain and dp 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Pretty cool skinny line out to the west. 1.75" so far. Pretty sure I saw a reflection of lightning earlier. Nice stormy night, great to get meaningful rainfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 Picked up 0.80" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Rain got heavier for a bit as that line passed through, not especially windy, although had some nice gusts earlier. 2.75" so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 22, 2023 Author Share Posted November 22, 2023 Picked up 1.12" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 1.92" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Ended up with 2.09". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 After a month of skimpy rain, the past 2 days have made up for it! Ended up with 1.59" yesterday and an additional 1.35" this morning for a total of 2.94" for the 2-day event so far. It's currently 50 with occasional light rain and dp 49. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Bird bath overflowing, calling it 1.80” event total. 47F LR looks dry again. We’ll see, anything past day 5 is throwing darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Last night was a bit of an over performer for the setup-- Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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