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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here.

I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there?

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46 minutes ago, Newman said:

Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here.

I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there?

.10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime.

Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather.

Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy?

 

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29 minutes ago, RedSky said:

.10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime.

Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather.

Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy?

 

I’m not the drought guy but my guess is globular worming is causing the Pocono permafrost to melt thus raising our water table. :D

Only 0.09 overnight, 52F. Gusty, yellow jackets getting blown around.

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Perfect Fall day with temps around 50, windy/breezy, college football and leaves falling. May get the urge to BBQ.

Tuesday into Wednesday next shot at some rain? (1"+). Going get the leaves up Monday afternoon before the rain "Mats" them to the ground.

Drought guy may be in ER w/these conditions.

50F/Breezy

 

drought.jpg

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16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally.

Am still holding with not turning the system on yet.  Because of all the dry air, I did get the humidifiers up and running in any case.  I know once I put that hot air on, look out. :axe:   It can get down to 19% without any humidification and any CAA.

 

2 hours ago, Newman said:

Just saw that since a month ago October 18th, KRDG has only seen 0.21" of precip and since November 1st, 0.01" which just happened last night before midnight. That number will go up as I'm sure more fell after midnight. But I was unaware of the extremely dry late fall SE PA has seen. Similarly, we haven't seen any measurable precip since October 28th, but then again that's to be expected out here.

I haven't been following along with winter forecasts and what not, been too busy with grad school. But I'd imagine things are going to be much much different this winter compared to last. A more busy STJ is hopefully in the cards with El Nino in place. The question is... how much has the atmosphere responded to this huge SST change and how much lingering Nina effects are there?

I ended up with 0.01" of rain here between 1 - 2 am this morning and that makes it 0.07" for the month of November so far.  October finished up with only 1.40".

Ended up hitting 66 yesterday for a high and had a low of 47 this morning.  It's currently a breezy, and sunny 51, with dp 28.  Definitely feels "fall like" out there.  Still have trees with leaves (mostly maples) but definitely well past peak.

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Many spots across the county had a frosty low in the 20's....the exceptions were some of the higher spots like where I am in East Nantmeal where we were no lower than 34 degrees this morning. Unfortunately, we are now almost 2" below normal rainfall for the month of November and 5.5" below our year to date average rain. The good news is that after the next coupled dry days we should see some beneficial rain moving in from southwest to northeast across the area on Tuesday afternoon. Most models agree on around 1.5" of rain before ending by daybreak on Wednesday. Below normal temps are likely for the rest of November.
Records for today: High 74 (1913) / Low 12 (1924) / Rain 1.74" (1988) / Snow 3.0" (1955)
image.png.39e857d7e33c0cebdb94439264b7e142.png
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Today will be almost 10 degrees colder in spots compared to yesterday. A nice sunny fall day before rain moves in tomorrow morning. There is a chance some higher spots in NW Chesco could see a few flakes of snow or some ice pellets if the precipitation moves in fast enough in the AM. Either way it looks like between 1.5" to 2.0" of rain are possible tomorrow with chilly temps remaining in the low to mid 40's across the county. Below normal temps and dry weather look likely for the rest of the holiday week.
Records for today: High 75 (1985) / Low 16 (1951) / Rain 1.80 (1952) / Snow 0.8" (1937)
image.png.d959e4f267bd6b3ec4c1954471863388.png
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Some of our neighbors to the west in Lancaster County have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.
Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)
image.png.4b353715f941871a2e2d1d4a53dafba7.png
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On 11/18/2023 at 12:35 PM, RedSky said:

.10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime.

Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather.

Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy?

 

The evapotranspiration rates have been negligible the last few weeks as the colder nights reaching dew points have set in. In other words, not much of the stream flow is being utilized from the lack of intense heat now. The second main reason is that leaf photosynthesis production as ceased, thus ground water water is not being pulled out the soil for the tree roots. The combination has help keep the stream flows going.  Tonights rain is a lifesaver and helps get the trees feet wet before the soil freezes in the next two weeks plus keep wildfire threats down. 

 

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The Sat. - Mon. splits for highs/lows were 58/34, 54/34, & 45/32.  After a low of 34 this morning, I got up to 49 for a high.

It took quite a bit to scour out the dry air to get something to hit the ground but it finally did and thankfully not in a gusher either.  For the month through until today, there was only 0.07" of rain IMBY.

Measurable rain hit here around 1 pm and so far I've picked up 0.90", the most significant 1-day amount since Oct. 14. It's currently 49 with light rain and dp 49.

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