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july 9th widespread flooding event


forkyfork
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this looks significant enough for its own thread

image.png.146b72649734fa81110e6dae1b6a6d4b.png

 By evening instances of 3-6" locally 
will become increasingly plausible with 00z HREF probability fields greater than 60% from DC to N VT (with spots near 90-100% for 3" and 30-60% of 5" across NE PA/N NJ to S VT.   00z Hi-Res CAMs have trended slightly eastward to align more favorably to the greatest 14-day precipitation over 300% of climatological normal axis extending from near Baltimore to Philly to N NJ and W MA, suggesting increased runoff potential for these.   As the surface wave advances toward the New York Bight by early morning, increased low level flow, will advect unstable across across S NY/New England and with continued isentropic ascent through warm conveyor belt along/north of the surface low, additional efficient thunderstorms a likely to linger overnight, in proximity to SE NY/SW New England as well as into south facing terrain making a more likely scenario for flash flooding.  As such, the Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall was shifted eastward slightly to account for the guidance trends.

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21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the 3k hits the metro with a secondary low later tonight

I agree on that being the time for island. Currently partly sunny at Jones beach. I just hope we don’t have one of the instances like we had with the last event where the western half of the island gets jumped. As in, the precip shield re-fires over the twin forks and SE New England  

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If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. 

You'd be surprised how quickly things can flood even with dryness during these high PWAT situations in the summer.

There's gonna be some 2-4" per hour amounts with this 

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25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy. 

And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed. 

Yeah it has me over 2", east of the parkway it drops to half an inch

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43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree on that being the time for island. Currently partly sunny at Jones beach. I just hope we don’t have one of the instances like we had with the last event where the western half of the island gets jumped. As in, the precip shield re-fires over the twin forks and SE New England  

Some consensus that this is exactly what happens unfortunately 

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