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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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The system next week looks like it will probably be nothing more than cold rain now. Sure it could change back but it falls in line with how things have trended most all year. We probably will have a cooler March than most would like but too late into winter for snow in west or middle. I just think this winter is where the 10-15 day always looks worse till it gets closer. Maybe you East Tennessee folks can score. This winter just doesn’t have it. I will have to see it to believe it at this point. Just getting to late in the year for a lot of confidence. After the first 10 days of March it gets real tough to have enough cold for snow. With all the cold mirages this year at 10-14 days this year it’s hard to count on the middle of March in west and middle Tennessee. Sorry for the doubt, I hope I am wrong.

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

The system next week looks like it will probably be nothing more than cold rain now. Sure it could change back but it falls in line with how things have trended most all year. We probably will have a cooler March than most would like but too late into winter for snow in west or middle. I just think this winter is where the 10-15 day always looks worse till it gets closer. Maybe you East Tennessee folks can score. This winter just doesn’t have it. I will have to see it to believe it at this point. Just getting to late in the year for a lot of confidence. After the first 10 days of March it gets real tough to have enough cold for snow. With all the cold mirages this year at 10-14 days this year it’s hard to count on the middle of March in west and middle Tennessee. Sorry for the doubt, I hope I am wrong.

 

 

 

 

All fair points.  Doubt and questions are part of the scientific process.  

I think the pattern change is probably legit.  There is some good support for it this go around - MJO, -NAO(appears legit), EPO, recent SSW, El Nino favors cold springs, and winter has to break in the West at some point, right?  Definitely good points about getting cold/storms inside of d10 - many have been mirages.  Both(pattern change and winter storms which don't materialize) can be true for March.  It takes huge cold fronts during March to get snow.  We could still have a cold March without those big fronts.  Seasonal climatology definitely will fight winter storms.  That said, spring is crazy and seeing a pattern flip(even if doesn't bring snow) is still a fun event to track.  

As for next weekend. Man, modeling is all over the place.  Like you, I lean cutter and cold rain.  When in doubt, go with the seasonal storm track, and that seasonal track has been cutters.  The 12z GFS is full blown cutter.  The 12z Canadian is almost a Miller A/Slider combo.  The 0z Euro had something similar last night.  The CMC and GFS don't even look like the are forecasting for the same time frame.  They are ~450 miles apart on the storm track.  That isn't uncommon at this range, but I do get a chuckle when I see models diverge that much.

I definitely want to see the pattern  for mid-late March get w/in ten days.  IF the ensembles are correct, I think places north of I-40 are in the game(long three pointer at the buzzer...not a quality look but a shot at something).  Spring storms often over-perform as modeling often underestimates the power of each system.  That is about as cold a look as one can draw up for March.  I highly doubt operational modeling has caught-on yet.  Ensembles are just now able to catch the leading edge at d14.  

Is it a mirage?  Possibly, but to see the CPC take the bait....I tend to think those pro forecasters there are pretty good and also pretty conservative.  To see that forecast at 3-4 weeks from conservative professionals...gets my attention.  

JB has been absolutely hammering 2018 for weeks. There is some merit to it.  2018 featured a massive flip from a very warm winter which had a brutal cold shote during December at nearly the exact time that we did this current winter.  The SSW flipped the pattern.  Then we had some good fortune....cold didn't go to Asia.  It came to NA.  It didn't go west.  It came eastward.  But I really don't like that analog as it has one BIG difference.  This is a third year La Nina, and it was not.  That SSW was a triumph of wx modeling.  The GFS nailed the strat split from 16 days out.

Either way, we are entering the season where we transition from cold to warm.  We keep tracking weather even if it doesn't snow - severe, hurricanes, heat, rain/drought.  Lots of good stuff to track and enjoy.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro is a nice pass on the 12z run.  Eastern valley gets just enough of a warm nose.  But if we can't have it, am I wrong to hope that it rains in the MA as well since they have complained all winter to the n-th degree?  

Tough to see the second system in the last month or so with a perfect pass being shown and no snow in the northwest quadrant.  Really bad timing to have zero cold highs coming down during this time period.  Even a mediocre cold high would get it done.  Those cold highs don't start showing until we get to the latter end of the 10 day period.  

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Tough to see the second system in the last month or so with a perfect pass being shown and no snow in the northwest quadrant.  Really bad timing to have zero cold highs coming down during this time period.  Even a mediocre cold high would get it done.  Those cold highs don't start showing until we get to the latter end of the 10 day period.  

Been like this all winter,some great storm tracks time to time,you'd typically expect to cash in but nothing

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro is a nice pass on the 12z run.  Eastern valley gets just enough of a warm nose.  But if we can't have it, am I wrong to hope that it rains in the MA as well since they have complained all winter to the n-th degree?  

Yeah, they'll get theirs with this blocking episode. It'll be us and the SE that'll probably wind up with the least snowy winter on record. 

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Aside from Christmas the cold snaps advertised in the long range have become more cool like as we get closer. The SER continues to battle off or at least weaken cold intrusions. Things are now being pushed out to mid March. Even if there is a pattern change and it may very well change, once we get into middle and late March it really gets tough outside of the mountains in Tennessee. If things were trending colder for the 4th system or holding I would have more confidence. Really hope we see some signs of real change sometime in the first week if March. So many things start working against winter once we get into the meat of March.

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Two things  looks pretty certain at this point.  It’s going to be cooler which 55-60 I’m good with.  Rain!  Lots of rain!  
 

A footnote is severe wx looks like it’s not happening anytime soon.  If I had to guess.  Severe wx will be very scarce this year around here. Which is just fine with me. 

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39 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I definitely do not won’t any of that type of heat this early.  I will retract the wanted poster for the groundhog if he can prevent this type of heat. 

 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

5b19fe59e363068501ecccb17ff235b2.png


.

His facts are totally wrong for Nashville,hes just trying to spew his anti global warming with JB.It's certainly a fact our warmest temp in March came on March,20 of 1982 when it hit 86.Why dont he post how Nashville  shattered a record high last week and almost broke the all time record high for Feb by a degree...hmmm

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Watching the storm next week its interesting to see the GFS basically go back to what the Euro and CMC were showing a few days ago,. while they seemed to follow it and are now gradually working their way NW. 

I think what's killed us with this one is that the -NAO has been having a harder time establishing.The better runs had it further west over the Davis Straits. It backed way off and although it is bringing it back, it just isn't as stout. I'm guessing that has to do with fighting La Nina.

It's going to be fun to watch how this all unfolds after the 10th. Please know that is not some cryptic assertion that we'll get buried in snow, just fun to watch a blocky pattern. 

giphy.gif

TBH we probably want the March 4th storm to crank up and cut now, to help strengthen the NAO.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I think this has pretty much been a cutter for some time.  That follows the seasonal pattern. I have no idea what the Euro is doing w/ that system.  In general, if one model shows a cutter....that one is probably right.

As for the pattern change,  I don't see any can kicking w/ this.  But the weather isn't a train that has to arrive on time or arrive at all.  It is gonna do what it is gonna do.  Those of us who have been doing this some time, learn to accept that and enjoy the ride.  I know some folks are saying the pattern change timeline has moved.  Not to this point.  It certainly could.  I was incredibly clear that the middle part of February was going to be warm....very first post in the Feb thread.  The thread title is "Torch or Tundra."  We began the month with an ice storm and ended with record highs.  So, let's ease up on the can kicking deal.  And it may well happen, but LR models have been focused on weeks 2-4 of March....NOT week one.  March 10th has been the day for some time.  Ensembles still look pretty set on that - give our take a day.  Considering that modeling is still 14 days out.....that can change.  Maybe one weakness of the forum this winter is maybe not understanding that weather modeling outside of 5-7 days is not great with details, but is pretty good with where AN and BN heights go....and even then, it still busts.  Something to think about.  

And folks, we continue to track weather year round.  March is a fun month.  I want everyone to hear this -> Anything we get during March in regards to snow(I am talking a dendrite) in the valley is bonus snow.  

As for Nina winters.  We have had some really good ones, and we have had some really bad ones.  One key tenet in good La Nina winters is a negative QBO or one that is descending. The Nina this winter had a positive QBO, and that is no good here.  Again, the warmth in February should be no surprise.  LR seasonal models absolutely nailed this during the early summer of 2022.  Sure, there were some head fakes since January, but seasonal modeling didn't budge.  This winter was no surprise to me - none.  Some winters are total surprises, but this one did almost exactly (IMBY) what it has done for the past three winters.  Cold early...increasingly warm after the New Year....then spring comes late.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Watching the storm next week its interesting to see the GFS basically go back to what the Euro and CMC were showing a few days ago,. while they seemed to follow it and are now gradually working their way NW. 

I think what's killed us with this one is that the -NAO has been having a harder time establishing.The better runs had it further west over the Davis Straits. It backed way off and although it is bringing it back, it just isn't as stout. I'm guessing that has to do with fighting La Nina.

It's going to be fun to watch how this all unfolds after the 10th. Please know that is not some cryptic assertion that we'll get buried in snow, just fun to watch a blocky pattern. 

giphy.gif

TBH we probably want the March 4th storm to crank up and cut now, to help strengthen the NAO.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thought the Euro was more like the GFS...lol,but both seem to be having problems with the H5,which at this range should be common.To give credit to the GFS (cant believe i'm giving it praise at this range)it's been consistently showing the H5 closing off and the Euro just recently picked up on this.This right now seems like a hydro problem with recent rains leading up to this event,either way it seems right now a pretty potent system

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Thought the Euro was more like the GFS...lol,but both seem to be having problems with the H5,which at this range should be common.To give credit to the GFS (cant believe i'm giving it praise at this range)it's been consistently showing the H5 closing off and the Euro just recently picked up on this.This right now seems like a hydro problem with recent rains leading up to this event,either way it seems right now a pretty potent system

I prefer rain over severe wx.  Seems first week of March always comes in like a Lion.  This has the makings of one of those common nocturnal events we have in TN every few years. Sheesh.  March & tornadoes in TN go hand in hand. 

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The flip to a cooler pattern still appears largely on track.   Ensembles have the first wave of cold arriving around March 9-10.  Still 11-12 days out, so much cn still change.  For those of you thinking March goes warm, Cosgrove says analogs show a warmer March is expected.  That may well verify if the first ten days continue to torch which is likely.  Can the last twenty days balanced the books?  No idea, but we could very make a run at it.  The 0z EPS is most bullish w/ the last five days of its run roughly ten degrees BN.  The Canadian and American ensembles are 3-5 BN.  The 0z CFSv2 is similar to the EPS.  For the record, none of that means snow.  But pattern changes are interesting to track, and this one would very likely bring snow to the higher elevations of E TN and W NC.

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Don't worry about Ryan Maue. How much of that is a forecast, and how much is his climate argument? He and Hothead are the best Twitter drama - angry and oppose each other. I like both their severe wx takes better. Maybe I just have severe wx on the brain!

Stratosphere doubled down over the last few days. March is likely going to average cooler than normal. Just need the -PNA to relax for the Southeast, which it's forecast to do so. Arctic gets blocky. Could March observed actually be cooler than February observed? Not likely, but it has happened before. 

I'm not a fan of the Strato derailing severe; however, another shot at Southeast skiing (NC/WV) would be nice. Also the pattern might not wreck the Deep South toward April. In fact it could extend South season at the expense of the Plains.

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As crazy as it sounds, I have reduced my reading of Twitter weather by about 98%.  I left Twitter about 3-4 years ago.  I may look at an article if someone shares it.  Just too many agendas to drive clicks for individual accounts.  I do follow Cosgrove on FB as he does an excellent job of supporting his ideas.  I do read JB, because he does a decent job of explaining his ideas, and I use wxbell for maps.  I just sort through what I think is accurate or not.  This is easily the best place to get accurate weather information.  Why?  Because not everyone agrees.  You get both sides of the coin. 

 

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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 1952 UTC Mon Feb 27, 2023
Valid: 12 UTC Mar 01, 2023 - 12 UTC Mar 02, 2023
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF 
TENNESSEE...

...Mid-South...
Low-amplitude southern stream shortwave energy embedded within 
strong, and increasingly diffluent mid to upper-level 
west-southwest flow aloft downstream of the longwave trough over 
the Southwest will be interacting with a quasi-stationary front 
draped across the Mid-South for multiple rounds of convection late 
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The convective threat 
will be facilitated by an increasingly moist and unstable boundary 
layer pooling along and south of the front with aid of a 30 to 50 
kt low-level jet. PWs are forecast to rise to locally over 1.5 
inches over the Mid-South with these values reaching as much as 2 
to 3+ standard deviations above the mean. A dual moisture feed 
regime is forecast with a combination of low-level Gulf of Mexico 
moisture working in tandem with the northeast transport of mid to 
upper-level eastern tropical Pacific moisture which is already 
seen pooling in the latest CIRA-ALPW imagery. MUCAPE values are 
forecast to rise in the vicinity of the front to between 1000 to 
1500 J/kg and this coupled with deep layer forcing associated with 
the aforementioned shortwave energy, increasing vertical shear, 
and larger scale placement of right-entrance region jet 
dynamics/forcing should result in regional development of 
organized convection. Multiple convective clusters are expected 
that will tend to be aligned west-southwest to east-northeast with 
the deeper layer mean flow and this will be suggestive of a threat 
of repeating/training cells.

Rainfall rates are likely to reach up into the 1 to 2 inch/hour 
range with the stronger/organized convective cells and with some 
storm totals that may reach up into the 2 to 4+ inch range given 
concerns for repeating/training cells. The latest NASA SPoRT soil 
moisture data indicates relatively moist antecedent conditions 
across portions of the Mid-South and this is suggested as well 
with USGS data showing locally above normal streamflows. Given 
this and the environmental support for heavy rainfall, a sizable 
portion of the Marginal Risk area was upgraded to a Slight Risk 
with an emphasis on Tennessee where the best overlap of moist soil 
conditions and heavy rainfall potential overlap. Isolated to 
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible across this 
region.

Orrison
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Well, we have three ensembles now singing the same song.  The 6z GEFS joins the EPS w/ a pretty cold look right around March 10th.  IMHO, that will last 2-3 weeks at minimum.  Since this is March, we should see waves of cold push eastward vs a hit-and-hold.   Spring will fight back w/ some warm days embedded.  April is showing some signs of being seasonal.  Let's cross our fingers. I normally sneak my plants into the garden during the second or third weeks of April.  It won't happen this year as the ground will highly likely be too cold due to rain and a cold March.  Another late planting season appears on the horizon for gardeners and farmers alike.   FTR, I really, really don't like BN Aprils.  Seasonal is fine, and slightly AN is preferred.  

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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well, we have three ensembles now singing the same song.  The 6z GEFS joins the EPS w/ a pretty cold look right around March 10th.  IMHO, that will last 2-3 weeks at minimum.  Since this is March, we should see waves of cold push eastward vs a hit-and-hold.   Spring will fight back w/ some warm days embedded.  April is showing some signs of being seasonal.  Let's cross our fingers. I normally sneak my plants into the garden during the second or third weeks of April.  It won't happen this year as the ground will highly likely be too cold due to rain and a cold March.  Another late planting season appears on the horizon for gardeners and farmers alike.   FTR, I really, really don't like BN Aprils.  Seasonal is fine, and slightly AN is preferred.  

I think we might see unseasonable condition right through the first of April also because of anothe major SSW taking place again currently.  The PV is really getting hammered. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I think we might see unseasonabl condition right through the first of April also because of anothe major SSW taking place again currently.  The PV is really getting hammered. 

Great find!  I have been mulching since the weather is nice!  I wasn't paying attention to the strat.  I figure I will dial back in sometime around March 3rd as the first cold shot will be in sight of the operationals.  The current SSW may actually allow for a brief respite during week 4 of March followed by a cold first couple of weeks of April.  Lots of similarities to 2018.   I know JB takes a beating, but I do have to reference him on this.  He has been harping on this for three weeks. 

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