Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Looking at my forecast which is very risky & highly unlikely to be correct. It looks like around a week of cooler to 1-2 days cold before back to 60’s. Those are the details that long wave patterns are unable to show at range. Basically we get a cold front which lasts 2-3 days. As that cold decays, we get warm that builds in behind it(rolling ridge if you will). Then the next from rolls through. These cold shots are going to be legit. Pattern still looks very much base cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Right now I can see three cold fronts: 11th, 13th, 18th. Each gets increasingly BN in regards to temps. It is important to note that average temps are increasing. Temps may stay in the upper 40s to low 50s all month in a local for example(there will be more fluctuation than that...just an example). That temp set gets progressively much more BN as we get later in the month. Make no mistake, this looks cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I don't think the 12z CMC is correct(will likely trend much more NW), but that is how you get winter in March. Again, looks suspicious to me and is playing catch-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area. It just about has that now. 12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter. This is not a complaint but just general amusement. It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter. I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past. Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes. I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again. We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out. Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog! LOL. The difference this time may be the MJO if the western seasonal track is bucked. Also, Nina has weakened. Hopefully, these factors buck the seasonal trend. However, troughiness in the SW will try to continue the cutter pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The wx & patterns sure seem to be all out of whack. Added the volcanoes & earthquakes strange times to be living in. The west has had a winter for the ages. Though the positive is the reservoirs are full out there now. Plus it appears there will be snow on the ground when winter begins later this year out there. I read where the Sierras have over 700”. That’s unbelievable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Today has turned out nice. It’s warmer than was predicted plus the rain is not panning out. Almost 60 here. To me that’s perfect temp. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Models seem to be keying on next weekend. Could be a cutter or could be snow about 2500'. The 0z Euro has it. The 6z GFS has a clean pass beneath our latitude. I think the Canadian had something as well. Long shot but worth watching. Overall, the cold pattern is still on time and formidable. The most recent ensembles remain cold. The operationals are cold. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them get colder. This morning's MJO even shows realistic potential that it could loop back through the cold phases and do it all again...or even stall at low amplitude in cold phases. For most of us that it going to mean cold rain, maybe some pleasant days in the 40s/50s, and maybe some days where it is raw and windy. Nights have the potential to be quite cold. Could be some big swings between nighttime lows and daytime highs. Misery index could be at times significant for outdoor sports people, especially evening stuff. As for the mountains, snow there is becoming more likely with each passing run. I would even think the Plateau is fair game. NE TN, SW VA, SE KY.....outside chance to see some measurable snow. Mood flakes are plausible. This pattern does have the potential to spin one up. Duration? Cold has rarely lasted this winter to the extent or intensity that modeling depicts. Right now, this "appears" (famous last words!) to be a true pattern change which means 4-6 weeks. Now, that isn't all misery as daytime high averages increase rapidly from this point forward. So, BN isn't like BN during winter....but it isn't overly springlike either. I would think that measurable snow chances are off the table after the 20th for the valleys. That said, if there was ever a pattern to do something strange...this is up there w/ some good ones. I want warmth for April. I have held off starting my tomato and pepper seeds. I know the ground isn't going to be ready by week 3 of April IMBY. I am looking at a later planting than normal - maybe the second week of May. Fava beans could go now though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Yep. i'm rooting for the Plateau to have a final shot as this is the only true 'Hail Mary' shot of seeing snow with the fam until next season. One year ago today middle TN was getting spoiled again with a decent ankle-biter snow event. Crazy how times have changed in just a year. Already lookin' ahead to 2024, in part, with a new ENSO to talk about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 hours ago, *Flash* said: Yep. i'm rooting for the Plateau to have a final shot as this is the only true 'Hail Mary' shot of seeing snow with the fam until next season. One year ago today middle TN was getting spoiled again with a decent ankle-biter snow event. Crazy how times have changed in just a year. Already lookin' ahead to 2024, in part, with a new ENSO to talk about. Yep, we received 3.2 inches a year ago today at my house. That was the latest March snowfall we have had in a long time. Usually them first 7-8 days of March is our last window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 @Holston_River_Ramblerthat was a good, ol' fashioned NAMing....err, GFSing? Happy Hour rides again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just having some fun. Huge grains, people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 It's Miller Time....18z GFS manages to spin up a couple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Light snow is forecast in the mountains tonight. MRX mentioned it in their afternoon discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Multiple rounds of cold during the next 2-3 weeks(maybe longer). The mountains are now under a winter weather advisory. Here is the recipe for misery. Loop back for added effect. Last window for a storm IMHO is when it hits low amplitude. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Trough is east of Hawaii on the medium and LR ensembles. That is a signal for an EC storm threat. That is a LONG shot for the valleys, but mountains would be in the game. Ensembles 500mb are not warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Trough is east of Hawaii on the medium and LR ensembles. That is a signal for an EC storm threat. That is a LONG shot for the valleys, but mountains would be in the game. Ensembles 500mb are not warm. I will take todays wx for soccer. Low to mid 50’s is perfect for it. My opinion to get snow in lower elevations will take a miracle. Plus the ground temps would melt plenty of snow falling for it to overcome for it to stick. Then you have sun angle against us also. At this point I don’t won’t any temps. close to supporting snow. Why? It would most likely just be a very cold rain. Hard pass on that scenario. My fescue is loving this wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 49 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: I will take todays wx for soccer. Low to mid 50’s is perfect for it. My opinion to get snow in lower elevations will take a miracle. Plus the ground temps would melt plenty of snow falling for it to overcome for it to stick. Then you have sun angle against us also. At this point I don’t won’t any temps. close to supporting snow. Why? It would most likely just be a very cold rain. Hard pass on that scenario. My fescue is loving this wx. Yeah, this is the initial trough coming through which kind of breaks the old pattern. This is the very beginning of the new pattern. This is the trough which looked cold at range, but modified as it drew closer. The first shot of truly cold air will be T/W, then a very brief warm-up, then more cold air. Wash, rinse, repeat. This is a base cold pattern where the cold comes in waves. Probably is a warm-up and rain pattern. That said, this is a the type of pattern which can spin one up...I don't see that at this point, but the trough east of HI is generally a good teleconnection for EC storms. This is really a pattern which favors E TN and mountain communities if any storm develops. Again, I don't want cold temps in April. And yes, the weather today as beautiful. I definitely don't like 80s during March. Give me normal, spring weather and I am good to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 This is not the full run either. I noticed that the mean for the 18z GEFS showed a substantial uptick. So, I decided to look at why. Happy Hour is not just reserved for the op. And this is why I won't rule out some late season mischief. P6, anyone? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Matthew70 said: I will take todays wx for soccer. Low to mid 50’s is perfect for it. My opinion to get snow in lower elevations will take a miracle. Plus the ground temps would melt plenty of snow falling for it to overcome for it to stick. Then you have sun angle against us also. At this point I don’t won’t any temps. close to supporting snow. Why? It would most likely just be a very cold rain. Hard pass on that scenario. My fescue is loving this wx. Your area it would be highly unlikely. Eastern areas, particularly northern sections not that unlikely. One of the biggest Snowfalls I ever witnessed occured April 2-5, 1987. I lived near Pennington gap,Lee County, VA at an elevation of 1550 ft. and recorded 30 inches on the north facing, shaded area's. I remember reaching down to the ground and it was wet underneath. Temps had been in the 70's for 2 weeks prior to the Storm. There'd easily been 4 feet had it all accumulated. In fact, 54" was recorded on High Knob near Norton. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Multiple rounds of cold during the next 2-3 weeks(maybe longer). The mountains are now under a winter weather advisory. Here is the recipe for misery. Loop back for added effect. Last window for a storm IMHO is when it hits low amplitude. Not having a good night posting it seems The MJO is acting like 1997 with the exception it seems to possibly die out in the future it seems.In 1997 later into the year it built up a strong NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Not having a good night posting it seems The MJO is acting like 1997 with the exception it seems to possibly die out in the future it seems.In 1997 later into the year it built up a strong NINO Interesting. Yeah, a prolonged bout of phase 8 does imply the water is warming there which would imply Nino conditions are increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 nights in the mid 20’s this week, 3 more this weekend. Dogwood’s, Redbuds and Azaleas are toast. This is 2016 all over again except it was in early April then. Most deciduous shrubs that are starting to releaf will likely be lost. I’m going to cover my Japanese maple and put a light under it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: 3 nights in the mid 20’s this week, 3 more this weekend. Dogwood’s, Redbuds and Azaleas are toast. This is 2016 all over again except it was in early April then. Most deciduous shrubs that are starting to releaf will likely be lost. I’m going to cover my Japanese maple and put a light under it. . My dogwoods & Azaleas are just now showing a little green. Very little. I know I have lost some shrubs due to the temps around Christmas. A landscaper told my neighbor that the Hollie trees/bushes are alive but will have to be hedge trimmed to get the dead frozen ends off. He said to wait till April. Going to be costly for many this spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My dogwoods & Azaleas are just now showing a little green. Very little. I know I have lost some shrubs due to the temps around Christmas. A landscaper told my neighbor that the Hollie trees/bushes are alive but will have to be hedge trimmed to get the dead frozen ends off. He said to wait till April. Going to be costly for many this spring. My Nellie R Holly tree looks really good as of now. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: My dogwoods & Azaleas are just now showing a little green. Very little. I know I have lost some shrubs due to the temps around Christmas. A landscaper told my neighbor that the Hollie trees/bushes are alive but will have to be hedge trimmed to get the dead frozen ends off. He said to wait till April. Going to be costly for many this spring. There are many shrubs like that around here as well. Otto Lukyens and other laurels like Skip Laurel took it on the chin. My neighbor had some formed into a hedge along his driveway that had to be at least 8ft tall and about 15yrs old. They are brown and only putting out from the bottom and some midway up the shrub. His will have to be pruned like that and basically start over like they were 15yrs ago when he planted them. Even then it’s not going to be pretty. There won’t be an even re-growth to a hedge. Some will sprout higher up on the individual shrub and others lower down, making it to where they have to be pruned lower than might ordinarily be the case in order to try to achieve some form of uniform hedge again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: My Nellie R Holly tree looks really good as of now. . My Hollie’s are completely bare. No leaves left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My Hollie’s are completely bare. No leaves left. Oh no.. that’s not good at all. Hate that for ya. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Oh no.. that’s not good at all. Hate that for ya. . Thanks. They are alive just going to have to trim back to the live part. Kinda like starting over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 There are many shrubs like that around here as well. Otto Lukyens and other laurels like Skip Laurel took it on the chin. My neighbor had some formed into a hedge along his driveway that had to be at least 8ft tall and about 15yrs old. They are brown and only putting out from the bottom and some midway up the shrub. His will have to be pruned like that and basically start over like they were 15yrs ago when he planted them. Even then it’s not going to be pretty. There won’t be an even re-growth to a hedge. Some will sprout higher up on the individual shrub and others lower down, making it to where they have to be pruned lower than might ordinarily be the case in order to try to achieve some form of uniform hedge again. I think my Otto’s are shot, although they never look good until summer growth kicks in. Would take a stick of dynamite to get them out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 My suggestion, before pruning wait and see what comes back. Holly bushes are as tough as the come. They may just be damaged at the tips of the branches. If you break a branch, and it is green underneath...it prob will produce more leaves. If it is brittle, no good. I found this article....we have had some severely damage plants beginning to show life again. The hollies on the south facing (bricked side) are in good shape. Also, if hollies are established, I can cut mine almost to the ground and they will be 2-3’ high by the end of the season. Double that or more next season. I trim back some hollies to about 12” of the ground and just leave a stump. They bounce right back - those are the hollies with smaller leaves. I did this last season as they go too big....they come back quickly. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/life/home-garden/2023/01/13/5-ways-to-help-save-your-plants-after-decembers-extreme-cold-snap/69780735007/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now