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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Does this winter leave like a lion or a lamb? Here I sit at 1300' on the plateau at 6:30 am on Feb 23. The temps are in the mid 60s - lower 70s. The old old folks used to say we had to pay for this kind of weather in winter? Will we this year? 

Yeah,  j just about guarantee it. Usually a predominately mild Winter progresses to a cold Spring.  I don't know what the statistical odds are, maybe someone that feels up to it can look it up. Also, this Year has more going for that as well, due to the SSW, waning Nina and ensuing Nino. 

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23 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I have a feeling we are going to have a massive kill-off of budding plants sometime soon... no way we don't have a solid cold shot before April.

I would say that this is much more likely than having an actual snowfall so late in the season 

 

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I would encourage everyone to enjoy tracking, and not to get overly invested in a d8-10 storm.  We are simply discussing a storm at range.  It is highly likely storms at this range don't materialize.   And it is March.  But we are going to be discussing and track, so be ready....and don't get too invested at this range.

Thanks to Holston for creating the thread.  I doubt I have seen the last flakes of snow IMBY.  March is probably not going to be worse than any other month this winter - LOL.  So, the bar is set very, very low.

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3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would encourage everyone to enjoy tracking, and not to get overly invested in a d8-10 storm.  We are simply discussing a storm at range.  It is highly likely storms at this range don't materialize.   And it is March.  But we are going to be discussing and track, so be ready....and don't get too invested at this range.

Thanks to Holston for creating the thread.  I doubt I have seen the last flakes of snow IMBY.  March is probably not going to be worse than any other month this winter - LOL.  So, the bar is set very, very low.

Do you think March will end up colder than February ?

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1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said:

Do you think March will end up colder than February ?

Doubtful.  Sometimes that can happen w/ Jan/Feb, but pretty rare for March.  I think the first week of March should be warm enough to prevent that from occurring, even w/ a potential winter event for week one.  I won't discount it, but I don't see massive cold anomalies on that order.  It looks cold, but not extreme.  There are some extreme runs, but not consistently.  It would have to go wall-to-wall to beat Feb as the lengthening of days will eventually rule that roost.

Weeks 2-4 of the Euro Weeklies (hot of the press) have a very cold pattern.  Early in week 3, departures are ten degrees BN which is significant on an ensemble run...

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At this time of year I will watch this from afar while continuing on toward spring. If it gets within 3 days and is showing a good snowfall I will start monitoring closer. This time of year as long as it’s not severe or vodka cold I am happy. No matter what I will be right back cheering on next years winter chances. This winter at least gave a white Christmas and a week long super cold outbreak with 2 small snows. But mostly this winter has been a lamb that tries occasionally to be a lion, only to prove it’s not. We are fixing to get the final 4th quarter grade for winter. Time for ol man winter to go big or leave no doubt that 2022-23 was a pure lamb for Tennessee.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would encourage everyone to enjoy tracking, and not to get overly invested in a d8-10 storm.  We are simply discussing a storm at range.  It is highly likely storms at this range don't materialize.   And it is March.  But we are going to be discussing and track, so be ready....and don't get too invested at this range.

It's even more Miller A like at 18z on the GFS. There were some nice hits (maybe 4 - 5) on the 12z GEFS too. 

Hot off the press 18z GEFS has some nice members too (and some clunkers) 

XgBLJE5.png

Very few hits on the 12z EPS though. 

Like Carver's said, it's an 8 - 10 day storm on one model. Sure it's got a low probability of happening, so I would encourage anyone who doesn't want to track it, to not track it. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would encourage everyone to enjoy tracking, and not to get overly invested in a d8-10 storm.  We are simply discussing a storm at range.  It is highly likely storms at this range don't materialize.   And it is March.  But we are going to be discussing and track, so be ready....and don't get too invested at this range.

Thanks to Holston for creating the thread.  I doubt I have seen the last flakes of snow IMBY.  March is probably not going to be worse than any other month this winter - LOL.  So, the bar is set very, very low.

Definitely can't be any worse than January or February! But in all actuality, December wasn't too bad. Extreme historic cold and an overperforming clipper for my backyard. 

I want to say this far out storm goes as the rest of the storms this winter, but does the retreating La Nina shakeup the trend? 

 

 

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2 hours ago, snowmaker said:

At this time of year I will watch this from afar while continuing on toward spring. If it gets within 3 days and is showing a good snowfall I will start monitoring closer. This time of year as long as it’s not severe or vodka cold I am happy. No matter what I will be right back cheering on next years winter chances. This winter at least gave a white Christmas and a week long super cold outbreak with 2 small snows. But mostly this winter has been a lamb that tries occasionally to be a lion, only to prove it’s not. We are fixing to get the final 4th quarter grade for winter. Time for ol man winter to go big or leave no doubt that 2022-23 was a pure lamb for Tennessee.

Same.  I am going to enjoy looking and tracking this...but 72 hour rule is a good rule at this range in terms of how serious we take it.  

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1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Definitely can't be any worse than January or February! But in all actually, December wasn't too bad. Extreme historic cold and an overperforming clipper for my backyard. 

I want to say this far out storm goes as the rest of the storms this winter, but does the retreating La Nina shakeup the trend? 

 

 

Western half of the state did well in January.  Yes, E TN and La Nina winters just don't mesh well.  To be fair, some great winters have been weak La Nina's BUT they have a negative QBO component(didn't have that this winter...14 month cycle is in our favor next winter though).  We need that coastal component to score, and coastals have been largely absent this winter. 

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1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Definitely can't be any worse than January or February! But in all actually, December wasn't too bad. Extreme historic cold and an overperforming clipper for my backyard. 

I want to say this far out storm goes as the rest of the storms this winter, but does the retreating La Nina shakeup the trend? 

 

 

Likely to the last question.  Models today are trending colder than yesterday.  Still a sold couple of weeks from any meaningful pattern change potential.  Lots could change, but the ensembles now have it.  So, the cold solutions have moved from the Weeklies to the global ensembles.  The potential is there for very cold temps.  The CFSv2 had temps twenty degrees below normal.  Fingers crossed.

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This is the GEFS ext from this evening....We have seen this look before, and it is possible that there is some bias across modeling.  EPO/NAO couplet is the sauce if we can somehow find it.  Keep in mind that BN temps during March have to be REALLY below normal in order to get snow.  If somehow the PV was trapped under that....(not seeing that just yet) but man.

Screen_Shot_2023-02-23_at_9.38.20_PM.pngScreen_Shot_2023-02-23_at_9.38.35_PM.png

 

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A fairy tale starts with “Once Upon A Time”.

A southern fairy tale starts with “Y’all ain’t gonna believe this ****!!”

All that to say…..our Facebook weather forecasters are already talking about the early March system. Why???

I’m perfectly ok with it being discussed here, because it’s a weather forum made up of people who exercise common and logical sense (and have a good amount of knowledge regarding weather in our area).

But the simple word “SNOW” on social media is clickbait and makes IQ’s drop into the single digits and thus starts the endless IMBY questions from all the little Johnny’s who barely have enough common sense to follow the shade around the house!!!

Stepping off soap box.

Carry on…….

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Euro made a pretty big jump towards yesterdays GFS solution wrt to next week's system:

giphy.gif

 

Yesterday the Euro and the CMC had the energy coming out all at once and everything cutting (left gif). 0z Euro  last night a piece is able to compress the flow ahead of the main shortwave (right gif).

giphy.gifgiphy.gif

 

IMO 6z GFS shows a pretty realistic solution which is a compromise between the now far SE Euro and far NW CMC. Although I would still argue that the SE ridge will flex more and some NW adjustments are likely given this year's trends:
giphy.gif

Besides the ever present SE ridge the biggest question seems to be how much energy is flying around out in front of the main shortwave to compress the flow. In this fast flow N stream La Nina, we probably won't have a realistic idea of how that looks until 3 days out or so. But we should have a -NAO flexing and maybe even a 50/50, so we roll the dice this time with that:

giphy.gif

 

 

That would flood some areas and then snow. That would be a new way to fail, so maybe it works out this time, lol. 

qpf_acc-imp.us_state_ky_tn.png

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ky_tn.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Growing confidence that a signifiant pattern change is inbound.  It is NOT a lock.  But if you think we are the only folks talking about this, you would be in error.  This is the 3-4 weeks CPC forecast which was released yesterday.  That is pretty bold outlooks at the range!

Screen_Shot_2023-02-25_at_8.28.04_AM.png

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300PM EST Fri Feb 24 2023 

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 11 2023-Fri Mar 24 2023 

La Niña conditions are currently present with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The Real-time Multivariate (RMM) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index indicates a robust eastward propagation of the intraseasonal signal shifting from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Pacific over the past 3 weeks. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts generally show a weakening signal during Week-1, followed by a re-amplification of the index over the Pacific during Week-2. The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming and other high latitude variability as well as decadal climate trends.. 

A blend of the CFSv2, ECMWF, and GEFSv12 500-hPa height pattern forecast, plus a small contribution from the Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) height forecast based on the RMM index, La Niña, and decadal trends, predicts a broad anomalous trough over the central and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Weak positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the southwestern coast of CONUS. Anomalous ridging with above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, while below-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Alaskan Panhandle. Most dynamical guidance features near- to below-normal 500-hPa heights over the Hawaii islands. 

The Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook anticipates a major pattern change leading to widespread colder than normal temperatures over much of CONUS, except for Florida Peninsula where elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures are indicated, consistent with a forecast troughing pattern over the central and western CONUS. The highest probability of below normal temperatures (80-90%) are forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley beneath a strong anomalous troughing. Elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures are favored over northwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, while a tilt toward below normal temperatures are likely across eastern Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, supported by decadal trends and most dynamical model temperature forecast tools. 

The Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook favors above median precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and toward the Northern Rockies to the western Northern Plains, consistent with most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Increased probabilities of above normal precipitation are also favored for the eastern CONUS in association with the troughing predicted over the region. Enhanced probabilities of below median precipitation over parts of the Southwest is supported by most model guidance. Ridging over Alaska favors increased probabilities for below normal precipitation across the State. 

Above-average sea surface temperatures are currently observed in the vicinity of Hawaii.The SubX MME probabilistic temperature forecast favors above average temperatures over Hawaii during the Week 3-4 outlook period. Dynamical model guidance from the SubX MME shows increased probabilities for above median precipitation over Hawaii with strongest probabilities over Lihue. 

 

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ETA on the pattern change is about March 10th.  Yes, I am still watching the storm on the 4th.  The 6z GFS is a cutter, and peculiarly, the CMC and Euro are not.  I don't think we have enough cold in place for that storm, but it is still a week away.  I am just watching that one for amusement at this point.  After the 10th, another story altogether.

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