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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great find!  I have been mulching since the weather is nice!  I wasn't paying attention to the strat.  I figure I will dial back in sometime around March 3rd as the first cold shot will be in sight of the operationals.  The current SSW may actually allow for a brief respite during week 4 of March followed by a cold first couple of weeks of April.  Lots of similarities to 2018.   I know JB takes a beating, but I do have to reference him on this.  He has been harping on this for three weeks. 

Yeah again like this last SSW there will be a lag in how is affects our sensible weather. Like you said I think this current SSW will impact our weather for the first of April. We will probably get a reprieve from the cold late in March then we will turn colder again.  

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5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah again like this last SSW there will be a lag in how is affects our sensible weather. Like you said I think this current SSW will impact our weather for the first of April. We will probably get a reprieve from the cold late in March then we will turn colder again.  

It is the absolute worst in terms of gardening.  Can't get the ground worked due to the rain to begin with.  Ground temps are going to take their time due to the likely upcoming cold and heavy rains.  Ground temps may not be optimal until mid to late May.  I have had some years where they were perfect during late April.   About mid July, blight hits my tomatoes.  The earlier the harvest, the more tomatoes I get.  When I plant 2-3 weeks laters, sometimes blight will take down my plants before I can even get half of my tomatoes harvested.   Lots of bad actors show up during July heat, so earlier plantings get more production.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Increasing confidence that we will see temps 10-20F BN at some point between March 10-25.  Operational models are just now picking up on this around d10. Ensembles have had it for 3-4 weeks(long range ensembles that is).  This will be pretty crazy if we reel this in from that far out.

Sadly there goes many blooms & early vegetation.  Heck the freeze in December did a number.  A freeze now will finish them off.  

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Please don't read anything more into this post than what I say:

5M406xG.png

Just never thought I'd see that kind of amplitude in phase 8. 

GEFS agrees:

wguKzu6.png

 

I've always thought models' initial conditions impact what bizarro fantasy solutions they show, so will be interested to see what wild things they show by about March 10. This hobby is always more interesting to me when there are at least fantasy storms on OP runs, whether they happen or not, or are even realistic, I just enjoy watching. 

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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Please don't read anything more into this post than what I say:

5M406xG.png

Just never thought I'd see that kind of amplitude in phase 8. 

GEFS agrees:

wguKzu6.png

 

I've always thought models' initial conditions impact what bizarro fantasy solutions they show, so will be interested to see what wild things they show by about March 10. This hobby is always more interesting to me when there are at least fantasy storms on OP runs, whether they happen or not, or are even realistic, I just enjoy watching. 

Wow.  That is wild!  Thanks for the share.  I will imply....LOL.  Everyone can blame me!  That is a cold and stormy pattern between phase 8 and 1, but it is going to be very warm until we get there. 

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Let me share a couple of slides.  One is the CFSv2 where you can see the likely storm track(snow on the ground).  Just look at where it is coldest - light purple.  Merge that w/ the CMC 0z snow mean, and you get the idea.  IMHO, it is likely that some locals in the SE have yet to see the last flakes fly.  I truly get uncomfortable discussing snow in March as it is infinitely fickle to predict.  But let's call a spade a spade, that is a pattern which can produce.  This kind of reminds me of tracking snow during late November.  It isn't unprecedented, but it isn't unheard of.  BTW, take a look at your Feb departures and look at 2018s for the same month...

Screen_Shot_2023-03-02_at_9.47.13_AM.pngScreen_Shot_2023-03-02_at_9.49.35_AM.png

 

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I mentioned in the banter that this winter reminds me of the late 1990s winters - barren of snow with some notable exceptions.  Joe D'Aleo at WxBell mentioned that this winter reminds him of 00-01 where winter came back in March for the Northeast(no implications here).  Want to take a guess what ENSO state  98-99, 99-00, and 00-01 were in?  It was a rare, three year La Nina cycle.  In NE TN, with the exception of cold Christmases and snow on Christmas, the last three years IMBY remind me of those three years.  The great thing?  What followed were some decent winters as the temp gradient in the Pacific reset after several Nino years.  I would suspect the PDO was not great during those winters.  Just thought I would share that....

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I can't remember who asked this, but during 2018 I think TRI had a colder average temp during March than it did during Feb.  I can't remember who asked that.

 

Anyway, 12z operational modeling is now fully on board w/ repetitive cold shots.  That is worth noting as operational modeling had been out of step with their ensembles.  Those are COLD looks w/ some days not getting out of the 30s.

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9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro has a high of 68F on the 7th, and on the 11th (fantasy land).....28F w/ upslope snow and a slop sliding along a frontal boundary to our SE as the run ends.  It will likely not go down like that, but the flip to cold could be SHARP!

Yeah the 12z euro absolutely drops the hammer on the east. 

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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the 12z euro absolutely drops the hammer on the east. 

The Euro is the worst case scenario.  But most operationals around the 11th, are showing a general 20-30 degree BN drop.  There are places which could see a 40-50 degree difference in their high temps during the second week of March.  For those not watching closely, that doesn't happen over night.  That is a 3-4 day descent back into winter.  How long we stay there is anyone's guess.  My best estimate is 10-15 days, then a warm-up...and if this SSW does its work, we do it all over again in April.  2018 redux on the maps - for now.  

edit:  To be clear, I don't think we say at 20-30 BN for 10-15 days.  That is just how long I think the cold shot will lost.  Departures during that time frame could be interesting though....just not that bad.

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro is the worst case scenario.  But most operationals around the 11th, are showing a general 20-30 degree BN drop.  There are places which could see a 40-50 degree difference in their high temps during the second week of March.  For those not watching closely, that doesn't happen over night.  That is a 3-4 day descent back into winter.  How long we stay there is anyone's guess.  My best estimate is 10-15 days, then a warm-up...and if this SSW does its work, we do it all over again in April.  2018 redux on the maps - for now.  

edit:  To be clear, I don't think we say at 20-30 BN for 10-15 days.  That is just how long I think the cold shot will lost.  Departures during that time frame could be interesting though....just not that bad.

Yeah im keeping an open mind on it all currently.  I do think this will be a very anomalous pattern that sets up.

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All I know right now wx modeling is incredibly cold(middle of winter stuff) right around March 10th or 11th.  That lasts 2-3 days.  We get maybe a 24-48 hour respite, and another round of cold follows.   As far as the long wave pattern goes, once we get to about day 7, I don't think we see a ton of changes.  Details within that potential long wave pattern are going to be interesting.  Again, we have been burned many times since January, but this look has been pretty steady.  We are about to the place where the long wave pattern on modeling is about to lock in.  Not quite there yet, but close.

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Probably going to be cold and dry, especially for west and middle Tennessee. Not near as much precipitation on that run. I know it will probably change, and I don’t doubt we will have some cool and maybe downright cold days. But just don’t see a consistent storm signal out through the 12th. Cold in March without snow is the worst and if that is the way it plays out I hope the long range plays out like most of this winter with temps, if it gets real cold it won’t have sustaining power or as we get closer it will be more cool than cold. If that happens we probably get rain. LOL! I am enjoying not expecting much, if by chance something happens and it snows here it will make the surprise better. But at this point I would be happy with spring, hoping for a legit mid March snowstorm in middle Tennessee is stretching possibilities to the limits.

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3 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Probably going to be cold and dry, especially for west and middle Tennessee. Not near as much precipitation on that run. I know it will probably change, and I don’t doubt we will have some cool and maybe downright cold days. But just don’t see a consistent storm signal out through the 12th. Cold in March without snow is the worst and if that is the way it plays out I hope the long range plays out like most of this winter with temps, if it gets real cold it won’t have sustaining power or as we get closer it will be more cool than cold. If that happens we probably get rain. LOL! I am enjoying not expecting much, if by chance something happens and it snows here it will make the surprise better. But at this point I would be happy with spring, hoping for a legit mid March snowstorm in middle Tennessee is stretching possibilities to the limits.

Precip looks normal to above(EPS...edit).  My money is on "warm-up" cold rain w/ wrap around snow showers FWIW.  Whatever is the most unpleasant, that is where my money is.  LOL.  2018 was miserable.  I remember picking up a hot water heater in Johnson City, and it snowed all the way home.  The yard was mush, and it took all we had to get the old one out.  Man, I took the old heater out, and just left it in the backyard until it warmed up.  LOL.

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