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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies, which I thought were derived from a warm run, basically maintain the upcoming blocking pattern from March10-April10....and I HOPE it is warm from the on!!!!!!!!

Locals & long range forecasts I have looked at have it upper 50’s to low 60’s throughout the middle of the month. The lowest low is 34.  Who will be right.  

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1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Locals & long range forecasts I have looked at have it upper 50’s to low 60’s throughout the middle of the month. The lowest low is 34.  Who will be right.  

Whatever is 5-12F BN around the 15th.   I think WJHL warned everyone this AM about the return of much colder temps.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Whatever is 5-12F BN around the 15th.   I think WJHL warned everyone this AM about the return of much colder temps.

Think the average high this time year is 56-59.  So would mean 45-50 temps.  Will be interesting to see how cold it gets.  Being soccer season I expect cold & wet. 

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I mowed 3 yards today, got 3 more to cut tomorrow. At least I am getting some early work even if we go cool for a week or 2. Probably will end up on lighter side of cold advertised, and hopefully by the 10-15th of April we will have shaken any coolness left over. No doubt I could be wrong but I don’t foresee no super cold. Maybe cool for March, this years long distance bark has been worse than the actual bite. With Christmas week being the exception, which was true arctic cold. But hey next year is another year!

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8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Think the average high this time year is 56-59.  So would mean 45-50 temps.  Will be interesting to see how cold it gets.  Being soccer season I expect cold & wet. 

45-50 for highs w/ the sun shining is no problem.  It is those evening/night soccer games, baseball games, and track meets which are gonna be dicey, especially if raining as you note.  Deterministic and ensembles are cold this morning.  Those nice, deep purple colors for temperature departures are back - and well inside of day 10.  I will enjoy the cold snap when it arrives.  But trust me, if it is blunted, I won't be complaining.  This weekend should be seasonal.  Next week, modeling drops the hammer.  Again, for me, the question isn't really if the cold arrives...it is the duration and intensity of the cold.  FWIW, temps IMBY look particularly cold for Tuesday-Friday of next week.  Modeling has been focusing on those dates for weeks.  It would not surprise me to see lows in the upper teens(if clear and not windy) at some point w/ highs in the upper 30s/low 40s.  That is going to be a shock to the system.  

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44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

45-50 for highs w/ the sun shining is no problem.  It is those evening/night soccer games, baseball games, and track meets which are gonna be dicey, especially if raining as you note.  Deterministic and ensembles are cold this morning.  Those nice, deep purple colors for temperature departures are back - and well inside of day 10.  I will enjoy the cold snap when it arrives.  But trust me, if it is blunted, I won't be complaining.  This weekend should be seasonal.  Next week, modeling drops the hammer.  Again, for me, the question isn't really if the cold arrives...it is the duration and intensity of the cold.  FWIW, temps IMBY look particularly cold for Tuesday-Friday of next week.  Modeling has been focusing on those dates for weeks.  It would not surprise me to see lows in the upper teens(if clear and not windy) at some point w/ highs in the upper 30s/low 40s.  That is going to be a shock to the system.  

Thanks for all your great info.   Yep no doubt shock to the system it will be.  Ugh.  These warm days & the  blooming have made me so ready for spring.  Crazy how it seems cool/cold springs are now common here in TN. 

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I held off booking a tent camping trip for spring break until yesterday.  As soon as I reserved the site the GFS starts spitting out snow.  Oh well, my kids will just have to deal with it!  It'll be more memorable than sitting around looking at screens.  :guitar:

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Watched Ryan Hall’s video and he believes after the first week of April there’s potential for April to be very active severe weather wise. He agrees with @Carvers Gap that basically starting next week through the first week of April is going to be quite chilly. Lucky!!!! As of now it doesn’t look like widespread vegetation killer cold is coming. I’m sure we will have a few nights below freezing but that’s expected and the majority of plants/shrubs can handle most of that. Just need to stay away from multiple nights of mid 20’s.


.

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Just looking at the 12z GFS.  The "warm-up" after the initial cold shot might not actually be a SER.  It looks to me like a chinook is over the southern Rockies, and that air will mix into the pattern.  Now, if you follow severe wx...that could pop some big storms.  You can see the next cold shot cutting off that chinook.  March is rarely boring.  

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51 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z GFS:

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Wx9H2Ny.png

 

Nice look.  6z is decent as well.  Kuchera is big.  The GFS has had a tendency to start here and end up in Indianapolis regardless of setup.  The other two models have it....just east.  The Euro is a good look but slightly late.  
 

For those just now tuning in...this is about 8-9 days out there, so be sure to know that.  That look is 100% going to change.  Maybe if I speak in a absolutes, it won’t.   LOL. But it will change. 

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12z GFS is verbatim snow for middle and west TN, but I think this is the normal bias...and eventually during future runs it cuts west w/ snow in Indy and rain for the forum area.  It just about has that now.  

12z CMC is a forum area event, but I think it is just catching up to the GFS...which hasn't caught up to the western trend this winter.

This is not a complaint but just general amusement.  It has been amazing to see systems along the coast trend into the Plains all winter.  I don't think I remember that being such a huge bias/adjustment across modeling in the past.  Again, it is at range, so not surprising to see changes.  I just don't remember seeing the same bias play out over and over again.  We almost want the system in Bermuda(no hyperbole) at 7-8 days out.  Used to the Caroinas would suffice to account for the NW jog!  LOL.

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