Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 A light dusting here. Small flakes coming down pretty good now. Steady light snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 So the GFS idea of showing a weekend wave of low pressure along the front…don't buy the solution? Sorry, I just need some hope to cling on to right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Re: Tuesday system....The odd thing about the GFS...it spots systems from way out...then trends them sharply westward. The Euro and CMC have been 24-36 hours behind its trends. It has taken the Euro to school during Feb. Oddly, the Euro has had a recent progressive bias recently. Right now I prefer the GFS at all ranges. We are still at the point for next Tuesday where the operational is still pretty much a single member of the ensemble. 48 more hours and then we can talk seriously about it. I don’t have high confidence in any model seven days out...to the good or bad. As Jeff noted yesterday...there is one idea that the storm gets suppressed and another that comes north into a marginal air mass. To me, the only differences in tracks of the 0z Euro and 6z GFS was precip type. But again, as new data is inputed...those solutions will most certainly change. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Update: heavy snow falling about 200 yards to my east onward. Hills whited out ! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, *Flash* said: So the GFS idea of showing a weekend wave of low pressure along the front…don't buy the solution? Sorry, I just need some hope to cling on to right now. I think the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week has some marginal interest for me. As for the Weekend...looks like rain chasing cold to me. Maybe the mountains? That said, MRX does have snow listed for MBY Sat morning (light variety that doesn’t accumulate...if even that). I always think spring has surprises. TRI is seeing fairly steady and light snow shower activity this morning. I wasn’t expecting that or the snow yesterday. Never know! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: A light dusting here. Small flakes coming down pretty good now. Steady light snow. Bonus snow! Wind chills this morning are around 25. It feels like the middle of winter. Our spring sports groups were sent inside yesterday by graupel. I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Bonus snow! Wind chills this morning are around 25. It feels like the middle of winter. Our spring sports groups were send inside yesterday by graupel. I am pretty sure I haven’t felt it this cold since December....LOL. Coming down moderate to heavy now with a heavy dusting.. even on roads. Looked at Pennington gap camera and quarter sized flakes there. Still small dense ones here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Re: Tuesday system....The odd thing about the GFS...it spots systems from way out...then trends them sharply westward. The Euro and CMC have been 24-36 hours behind its trends. It has taken the Euro to school during Feb. Oddly, the Euro has had a recent progressive bias recently. Right now I prefer the GFS at all ranges. We are still at the point for next Tuesday where the operational is still pretty much a single member of the ensemble. 48 more hours and then we can talk seriously about it. I don’t have high confidence in any model seven days out...to the good or bad. As Jeff noted yesterday...there is one idea that the storm gets suppressed and another that comes north into a marginal air mass. To me, the only differences in tracks of the 0z Euro and 6z GFS was precip type. But again, as new data is inputed...those solutions will most certainly change. To be fair to the GFS the EURO is very similar at 00z. It just isnt as dynamic of a system so the cold isn't there. This weekend is 100% cold chasing moisture with no other model support. Early next week could be a legit threat but support is low right now which is actually how we want it at this range. I'd rather be missed to the south at this stage. That is something we haven't been able to say any this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Knoxville got lucky. Low temperature was several degrees higher than expected. Didn’t get below freezing and just enough wind to dry the dew up. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Temp. fell from 29 to 27.4 during that heavy snshwr. . I was really pulling for the weekend system as i'm afraid it may warm up a little too much for the Tuesday one. Hopefully timing will be good and cold locks in enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: To be fair to the GFS the EURO is very similar at 00z. It just isnt as dynamic of a system so the cold isn't there. This weekend is 100% cold chasing moisture with no other model support. Early next week could be a legit threat but support is low right now which is actually how we want it at this range. I'd rather be missed to the south at this stage. That is something we haven't been able to say any this year. Yeah, I think the air mass is marginal for middle of next week. Time of day might account for some differences in precip type. I haven’t look at the storm for more than 2-3 minutes. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Knoxville got lucky. Low temperature was several degrees higher than expected. Didn’t get below freezing and just enough wind to dry the dew up. .Also we are getting some flurries . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Also we are getting some flurries . I don’t think it was overly cold here either due to wind and cloud cover. Tonight is prob going to be the roughest IMBY re: freeze. The wind chills are pretty sharp currently though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 If the Apple app is correct (best science I can muster this morning at short range), we have lows in the 20s for five of the next six nights. If I am wrong....blame the Apple. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Not alot but, at least a nice little surprise. Still flurrying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I don’t think it was overly cold here either due to wind and cloud cover. Tonight is prob going to be the roughest IMBY re: freeze. The wind chills are pretty sharp currently though. Yeah, clouds and wind kept temps up some. Did manage to hit 27. If winds die and skies clear, especially if early , yeah, very cold night on tap. May hit 20 or lower some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Hit 30 last night here but zero frost due to the wind. I'm thinking 26-27 tonight. Typical TN spring. Just enough awesome weather to get used to it, then the cold comes back again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Sitting in JC at the moment. A pretty heavy snow shower is rolling through at the moment. Welcome to spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Had a light dusting here. This is the winter of dustings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just looking at the 12z roll....it that doesn’t go big it has the chance to in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Good look and still to the SE. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good look and still to the SE. We take. This is a beautiful setup for the spine of the Apps. Big dog potential. Probably one of the best looks of the winter inside 180. Would like to see some more ensemble support though at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 If it had trended west even in the slightest, I would say the GFS is correcting westward again. I think it will trend north and west. We just want that to hold off for another 36-48 hours before making that trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: This is a beautiful setup for the spine of the Apps. Big dog potential. Probably one of the best looks of the winter inside 180. Would like to see some more ensemble support though at this range. Bout where we want it at this range given seasonal “send it to Indy” trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The 12z CMC has the Jeff setup...slp heading into a marginal air mass. Higher elevations would score with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Knoxville got lucky. Low temperature was several degrees higher than expected. Didn’t get below freezing and just enough wind to dry the dew up. . Same here. 32 here was the low due to clouds. We won’t be that lucky again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Significant uptick in GEFS members with this system.. CMC is close. This one is getting interesting. Sitting on the NW edge of this is exactly where we want to be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Well Dollywood is like maybe next year open up in April. Spring break should always be in April. I hate March. Always will. Let’s declare March the new January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It appears there is hope next week as it shows temps in the 60-70 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The 12z Euro is on board for Tuesday/Wednesday. Temps are marginal, but beautiful comma head. Mountains/Plateau would get smashed. I would assume the cold that would follow that would be sharp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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