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El Nino 2023-2024


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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.

....I disagree. I think some people would expect the results to be very similar....BTW if you know anyone looking to have their driveway plowed or business parking lot plowed this winter in Methuen advise them to find someone as soon as possible. Several Methuen area landscaping companies have decided to not offer snowplowing this winter.  

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More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.”

Big subsurface warming/DWKW:
 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.”

Big subsurface warming:
 

No one should be surprised .....

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25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....I disagree. I think some people would expect the results to be very similar....BTW if you know anyone looking to have their driveway plowed or business parking lot plowed this winter in Methuen advise them to find someone as soon as possible. Several Methuen area landscaping companies have decided to not offer snowplowing this winter.  

Hope not.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

It's actually tiresome that this has to literally be stated as a preface anytime someone challenges one of the more off the wall predictions, statements, or even interpretations regarding climate. 

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Steve D

image.thumb.png.782ce37392ad76a2ac8fa7d85af3f435.png

Steve D

image.thumb.png.782ce37392ad76a2ac8fa7d85af3f435.png

In the Summer, I suggested that this El Nino would shift from a strong east-based orientation in the sea surface temperature anomalies to a basin-wide orientation.  That forecast idea has officially been verified and will continue to shift, given the trends of the SSTA over the past two months.  The sub-surface anomalies support a continued gradual cooling in NINO 1+2 and warming in NINO 3.4.  Considering the sub-surface trends and evolution of this El Nino state, I expect NINO 4 to peak at around 1.8°C, NINO 3.4 to peak at 2.1°C, NINO 3 at 2.2°C, and NINO 1+2 to cool to 1.8°C through December and January.

Meanwhile, there have been no changes to the atmospheric response, with the SOI continuing to remain in a weak to moderate El Nino response and the location of the strongest tropical forcing and convective development around the dateline.  As a result, I expect we’ll continue to have this El Nino produce an MJO signal more frequently in phases 8,1 and 2 than in any other phases over the next three months.

So far, the forecast for this El Nino has evolved exactly as I had expected

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20 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:
Steve D
image.thumb.png.782ce37392ad76a2ac8fa7d85af3f435.png
 
Posted 1 hour ago

Steve D

image.thumb.png.782ce37392ad76a2ac8fa7d85af3f435.png

In the Summer, I suggested that this El Nino would shift from a strong east-based orientation in the sea surface temperature anomalies to a basin-wide orientation.  That forecast idea has officially been verified and will continue to shift, given the trends of the SSTA over the past two months.  The sub-surface anomalies support a continued gradual cooling in NINO 1+2 and warming in NINO 3.4.  Considering the sub-surface trends and evolution of this El Nino state, I expect NINO 4 to peak at around 1.8°C, NINO 3.4 to peak at 2.1°C, NINO 3 at 2.2°C, and NINO 1+2 to cool to 1.8°C through December and January.

Meanwhile, there have been no changes to the atmospheric response, with the SOI continuing to remain in a weak to moderate El Nino response and the location of the strongest tropical forcing and convective development around the dateline.  As a result, I expect we’ll continue to have this El Nino produce an MJO signal more frequently in phases 8,1 and 2 than in any other phases over the next three months.

So far, the forecast for this El Nino has evolved exactly as I had expected

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least

Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus.

BS.

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WCS daily updates:

-Latest Nino 3.4 is still warming steadily and rose from +2.07 to +2.12

-The PDO rose sharply from ~-1.19 to -1.01. That’s the largest daily rise since ~10/17.


Cyclonicwx:

-1+2: +1.84

-3: +2.30

-3.4 rose from +2.05 to +2.13, another sharp rise! It’s now about same as the +2.12 of WCS.

-4: +1.47

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least

All 4 Enso regions are above 1.5, and 2 of them are above 2.0. That should not be overlooked.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus.

BS.

You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. 
But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16.


6FF8DD6E-8A83-4FDD-87AE-D51460D100EF.gif.524191ba95cb1fea951eb867a8ae4c45.gif

 


7F2D8EEF-A772-4A0C-A301-B0354FBAE8E0.png.c09a0cb931ad8cc1f1e61be04981bf88.png

833D73E4-3D66-45A9-B338-1F0A184446FE.png.2bcb236bfa83ec6febd82421ea006efe.png

4B9474F1-56CB-415C-966D-EAEFA2FF7773.png.855f0cfcbdc3c449f204fda3692987e5.png

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. 
But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16.


6FF8DD6E-8A83-4FDD-87AE-D51460D100EF.gif.524191ba95cb1fea951eb867a8ae4c45.gif

 


7F2D8EEF-A772-4A0C-A301-B0354FBAE8E0.png.c09a0cb931ad8cc1f1e61be04981bf88.png

833D73E4-3D66-45A9-B338-1F0A184446FE.png.2bcb236bfa83ec6febd82421ea006efe.png

4B9474F1-56CB-415C-966D-EAEFA2FF7773.png.855f0cfcbdc3c449f204fda3692987e5.png

0078FB4A-9169-4634-B1F0-F280C29AB26F.png.55daac3249fce6fb7e551a4fff7aa4dd.png

I agree.....2015 is a decent EMI match, but as you implied, the SST dipole and pressure dipoli were much more pronounced in in 2015....WWBs were much more prevalent, as well...which is which is reflected by the MEI and RONI.

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