El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, roardog said:

How is the soi looking going into early July?

  Although there will be the typical fluctuations, I don't see any sign on the models of a sustained strongly -SOI for the next 10 days. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/26/2023 at 11:46 AM, bluewave said:

This is a good example of the relative minimum's we are still experiencing at a time of global warming. This event remains uneven with the string of La Nina's, and global warming as a whole (if everything were to catch up). 

[Terpeast]

In cpc’s recent update the model anomaly forecasts showed a temporary pause or slight cooling in July, then resume warming up Aug-Oct. 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In cpc’s recent update the model anomaly forecasts showed a temporary pause or slight cooling in July, then resume warming up Aug-Oct. 

 Unless I'm missing something, this brand new CFSv2 is significantly weaker with the 3.4 peak than the prior run (see link below). The 3 month is peaking at only ~+1.7 vs the prior run's just over +2.0. More than half of the latest ensemble members (blue) are cooler than +0.9 in July as Terpeast alluded to:
 

[bdgwx]

And the bias corrected CFS forecast is even lower at maybe +1.4.

[bdgwx]

BTW...the page is buried pretty well. But you can get the probability density function corrected forecast (bias corrected) for the CFS from the following link. It took me forever to find it a couple of weeks ago and Google isn't much help. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

And the bias corrected CFS forecast is even lower at maybe +1.4.

Yeah, and I think one reason this nino has not collapsed (yet) despite lack of wwbs is that there’s a ton of subsurface warmth

[griteater]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Unless I'm missing something, this brand new CFSv2 is significantly weaker with the 3.4 peak than the prior run (see link below). The 3 month is peaking at only ~+1.7 vs the prior run's just over +2.0. More than half of the latest ensemble members (blue) are cooler than +0.9 in July as Terpeast alluded to:
 

The CFS will tend to ‘over-react’ to the current system state.  If weakened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST warming. Conversely, if strengthened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST cooling

[snowman19]

The CFS will tend to ‘over-react’ to the current system state.  If weakened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST warming. Conversely, if strengthened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST cooling

Kind of like last year when the CFS was showing the La Niña totally collapsing and going warm neutral/borderline weak El Niño at one point….yea….that worked out superbly. The CFS is a wretchedly awful model.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

The CFS will tend to ‘over-react’ to the current system state.  If weakened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST warming. Conversely, if strengthened trade winds are ongoing/forecasted, it will over-inflate upcoming SST cooling

Yea..its not very stable at long lead times.

[SnoSki14]

On 6/26/2023 at 11:46 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, Nino 1+2 and 3 aren’t having the same forcing influence like they did at this point in 1997 due to the WPAC being so much warmer.

 

This is why I find the comparisons to 97-98 pretty silly. Too many people are also ignoring the influence of the west Pacific warm pool

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is why I find the comparisons to 97-98 pretty silly. Too many people are also ignoring the influence of the west Pacific warm pool

Yeah, the forcing is much further west than we typically see from an El Niño in June. 

 

 

[JBG]

On 2/9/2023 at 11:43 PM, George001 said:

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

Don't forget 2015-6 and 1972-3. 1982-3 may be similar though that was following a warm-neutral (right after the Great Pacific Shift) from mid-1979 through April 1982.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I agree with HM on the peak....ie 1.6-1.8.

[JBG]

On 6/16/2023 at 9:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The strong el nino/high solar years are pretty split....1940, 1957 and 2002 were good, but 1972, 1982 and 1991, not so much.....looks like there were only two with a notable dearth of big east coast storms....1972 and 1991.

1972 had a couple; December 15, 1972, which IIRC hugged the coast, causing a changeover, and January 29, 1973 (same story). There were two biggies that plastered the Southeast, from Atlanta to Charleston to Wilmington (NC). There was one in mid-to-late March 1992. I don't remember if the "Storm of the Century" circa March 12, 1993 was during a Niño or it it was already neutral.

[GaWx]

On 6/27/2023 at 1:30 PM, GaWx said:

For the 2nd day in a row, all 3 cooled in 3.4:

-CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.880

-CRW: cooled 0.034 to 1.050

-OISST: cooled 0.066 to 0.877

Average today of 0.039 cooler vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.022, 0, +0.039, and +0.050.

For first time in weeks and possibly even months, OISST is cooler (albeit barely) than CDAS!

3rd day in a row of 3.4 cooling but slower:

CDAS: cooled 0.047 to 0.833

CRW: cooled 0.024 to 1.026

OISST: cooled barely 0.004 to 0.873

Average today -0.025 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.039, -0.022, 0, +0.039

Latest TAO map is slightly cooler 

I predict BoA's +1.8 in 3.4 for July is going to bust way too warm.

[snowman19]

Here comes El Niño…..

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with HM on the peak....ie 1.6-1.8.

HM has said he’s open to and can see it possibly getting stronger than that and hasn’t made that preliminary +1.6C - +1.8C guess his official forecast yet. I still think this thing really takes off in a big way in the next several months and eclipses +2.0C. All we can do is wait, watch and see

[brooklynwx99]

the super Nino idea needs to shit or get off the pot, so to speak. we need to see significant warming over the next month if history is any indication, and I don't really see a mechanism for that to happen over the next couple of weeks. there is no MJO influence and forcing still remains well west over the Maritime Continent

[snowman19]

the super Nino idea needs to shit or get off the pot, so to speak. we need to see significant warming over the next month if history is any indication, and I don't really see a mechanism for that to happen over the next couple of weeks. there is no MJO influence and forcing still remains well west over the Maritime Continent

“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM

The reality is we now have the knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind El Niño formation. As a few posters have pointed out, there is nothing in the short term that is pointing toward a big jump in the 3.4 anomalies. We’re heading into July in a couple of days. MJO activity is weak at best, the 30 day SOI is around -5 with no big string of negatives in the near future, nothing exciting in the WWB department, a negative PDO, etc. So despite the twitter hype you like to post, the reality is much less exciting. 
 

I still wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the tri monthly peak come in under the 1.5 strong threshold. I know the CFS isn’t great but I think it’s a red flag that it continues to gradually get weaker with this event and even has 3.4 cooling in the near term. It’s like watching a modeled snowstorm and suddenly you see a model that starts to gradually show a weakening trend or a gradual shift in the track each run. That’s always a red flag.

[snowman19]

The reality is we now have the knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind El Niño formation. As a few posters have pointed out, there is nothing in the short term that is pointing toward a big jump in the 3.4 anomalies. We’re heading into July in a couple of days. MJO activity is weak at best, the 30 day SOI is around -5 with no big string of negatives in the near future, nothing exciting in the WWB department, a negative PDO, etc. So despite the facebook hype you like to post, the reality is much less exciting. 
 
I still wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the tri monthly peak come in under the 1.5 strong threshold. I know the CFS isn’t great but I think it’s a red flag that it continues to gradually get weaker with this event and even has 3.4 cooling in the near term. It’s like watching a modeled snowstorm and suddenly you see a model that starts to gradually show a weakening trend or a gradual shift in the track each run. That’s always a red flag.

Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s (Anthony Masiello) analysis any day over yours.

[roardog]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s analysis any day over yours.

You got me there. I meant to say twitter not facebook. Facebook, twitter, I hate it all. lol

[so_whats_happening]

HM is henry marguisity? Probably butchered the last name. Anyway hope he moved away from his hype train years ago with the constant big daddy talk. I enjoyed his analysis from time to time though. Never saw him as more than a synoptic/mesoscale guy for east and mid atlantic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/28/2023 at 5:35 AM, snowman19 said:

 

 

10 hours ago, roardog said:

The reality is we now have the knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind El Niño formation. As a few posters have pointed out, there is nothing in the short term that is pointing toward a big jump in the 3.4 anomalies. We’re heading into July in a couple of days. MJO activity is weak at best, the 30 day SOI is around -5 with no big string of negatives in the near future, nothing exciting in the WWB department, a negative PDO, etc. So despite the twitter hype you like to post, the reality is much less exciting. 
 

I still wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the tri monthly peak come in under the 1.5 strong threshold. I know the CFS isn’t great but I think it’s a red flag that it continues to gradually get weaker with this event and even has 3.4 cooling in the near term. It’s like watching a modeled snowstorm and suddenly you see a model that starts to gradually show a weakening trend or a gradual shift in the track each run. That’s always a red flag.

Well, if you are "vapid", than HM is vapid-lite.

[griteater]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

HM is henry marguisity? Probably butchered the last name. Anyway hope he moved away from his hype train years ago with the constant big daddy talk. I enjoyed his analysis from time to time though. Never saw him as more than a synoptic/mesoscale guy for east and mid atlantic. 

HM is Anthony Masiello (Twitter). He used to post on AmWx as HM back in the day. There’s a side story as to why he was ‘HM’ on here, but I don’t recall the details behind that 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

HM is Anthony Masiello (Twitter). He used to post on AmWx as HM back in the day. There’s a side story as to why he was ‘HM’ on here, but I don’t recall the details behind that 

And he knows his stuff. When he talks, I pay attention. Doesn’t mean he’s always right, it’s the nature of being a meteorologist. 

[GaWx]

On 6/28/2023 at 2:52 PM, GaWx said:

3rd day in a row of 3.4 cooling but slower:

CDAS: cooled 0.047 to 0.833

CRW: cooled 0.024 to 1.026

OISST: cooled barely 0.004 to 0.873

Average today -0.025 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.039, -0.022, 0, +0.039

Latest TAO map is slightly cooler 

I predict BoA's +1.8 in 3.4 for July is going to bust way too warm.

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling:

CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795

CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023

OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858

Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0

Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler