El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

 

[GaWx]

 After topping in Nov (fairly typical timing of a top), the OHC is already 0.9 lower than where it was then and is at its lowest since way back in early March of 2023 with it only near +0.6:

 

[GaWx]

 I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño.

 Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983.

 https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Speaking of El Nino and IMBY weather- Matt Lanza, reading between the lines, doesn't think El Nino will weaken quite as fast as the models, but even so, since 1950, the first hurricane season after a strong Nino tends to be about average.  Although while the recent fronts have cooled the Gulf nicely, the MDR is still abnormally warm.  https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Speaking of El Nino and IMBY weather- Matt Lanza, reading between the lines, doesn't think El Nino will weaken quite as fast as the models, but even so, since 1950, the first hurricane season after a strong Nino tends to be about average.  Although while the recent fronts have cooled the Gulf nicely, the MDR is still abnormally warm.  https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/

 

As one who lives near the coast, I sure hope Matt is right! Also, El Niño late Februarys and Marches tend to be cold/BN in the SE. That would hopefully keep the GOM temps in check at least at first.

[mitchnick]

Anybody (as in @GaWx) notice a warming on the SE Asian side of the Pole at the end of the Gefs and Geps runs? What, if anything, do you make of it? 

[mitchnick]

14 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Anybody (as in @GaWx) notice a warming on the SE Asian side of the Pole at the end of the Gefs and Geps runs? What, if anything, do you make of it? 

@GaWx

I was referring to 10mb warming.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

@GaWx

I was referring to 10mb warming.

1. The SPV is still strong on these maps. 

2. Euro Weeklies from yesterday show very little chance for wind reversal throughout run.

3. Yesterday’s extended GEFS shows slight chance (1 in 6) for reversal Feb 13-19, likely related to the progression of this Siberian warming shown on Feb 9. So, something to watch for then.

4. Should that occur, it would be similar to the timing of the 2/16/23 major SSW, which had delayed results as a result of an ongoing strong -PNA. It eventually lead to one cold week in mid March, especially in the SE vs normals. So, that one took ~3.5 weeks to result in E US cold, longer than the ~2 week average.

5. If there were to be a major SSW in mid Feb, the most likely start time for its effects on the E US would be near late Feb to ~Mar 1. However, models already have a -AO starting in early Feb and which will likely already be in place in mid to late Feb per extended models along with the potential return of a long period of E US cold into early Mar. If so, it may be hard to distinguish effects of any possible mid Feb major SSW.

[GaWx]

-Jan 1-25 has averaged +1.86 on the cyclonicwx.com’s OISST.

-The Nov and Dec ERSST combined averaged +2.045. That means that Jan ERSST needs to average +1.90+ to end up with a +2.00+ NDJ ONI (super Nino).

-ERSST averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST Aug-Dec.

-If I assume that ERSST/OISST relationship were to hold in Jan, that would mean that the Jan OISST would only need to average +1.82+ to end up with a +2.00+ NDJ ONI. Compare that to the +1.86 for Jan 1-25.

-What is needed during Jan 26-31 to bring the full Jan OISST down to +1.81 or lower? That would require Jan 26-31 OISST to be cooler than ~+1.65, perhaps near +1.62.

-The last week has averaged only ~+1.625 with yesterday’s +1.59 being the coolest in months.

-If Jan 26-31 were to rise back to an average of +1.65, a pretty difficult task as of now, the Jan OISST would end up at +1.82. Under the assumption of the Jan ERSST being 0.08 warmer than OISST, that would mean a NDJ ONI right at +2.00 (super). But if Jan 26-31 OISST were to instead average only +1.60 (near where it is now), Jan OISST would end up at +1.81 and NDJ ONI would end up at +1.99 (a hair cooler than super).

-So, it is literally down to the wire. These next 6 days could be crucial! Of course, if the ERSST/OISST relationship for Jan were to change much from the 0.08 difference of the prior 5 months, that could change things, too.

[WestMichigan]

Does 1.99 or 2.00 really matter other than for classification purposes?  I don't think the atmosphere is going to say oh, it is only 1.99 so I need to behave differently.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Does 1.99 or 2.00 really matter other than for classification purposes?  I don't think the atmosphere is going to say oh, it is only 1.99 so I need to behave differently.

Not in the least bit. This is purely for fun, bragging rights, and contest purposes. It will be in the record. Don’t forget that we have a contest in another thread.

Edit: In light of the next post, I want to restate that this would make a difference between strong and super on an UNROUNDED basis, which I go by since we have the unrounded available. I call +1.50 to +1.99 strong and +2.00+ super-strong. For those going by rounded (i.e., what shows in the well-known table), it will be quite difficult for it not to end up at +2.0 unless the ERSST/OISST relationship were to be far different in Jan vs the Aug-Dec average.

[so_whats_happening]

Not really but it also wouldnt be at that it would be flirting with 1.94-1.96 range and rounding would take it there.

There actually isnt an official source that desiginates these thresholds like there is for EP and CP events, just folks trying to classify it against other ENSO events. Pretty sure CPC and BOM only mention weak, moderate, strong events which each threshold seems to be .5-1, 1-1.5, 1.5+ respectively.

This has not acted like your canonical super enso event ( honestly i even question if there is a typical super nino event as we only have like 3-4 to go off of), strong may not even represent it properly. All ill say is it is nice to be above average on precip again. Sitting at about 9-10" of snow on the year so we are doing wildly better than the last 2 winters with still a month left. Just really hope we dont go into mid march with this but...

[so_whats_happening]

On 1/23/2024 at 11:39 AM, GaWx said:

 I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño.

 Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983.

 https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

We may set the record here unless we have some large negative values coming up, maybe the last day of the month can offer a large negative spike?

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We may set the record here unless we have some large negative values coming up, maybe the last day of the month can offer a large negative spike?

Indeed, we may. I had thought these last 3 days were going to be more negative than they ended up being. It may be close.

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like we should see a leveling off in region 3 coming up toward the end of the month and maybe even a rise again in 1+2 as the last little bit of warmth moves east. Subsurface cooling quite drastically this month really hope we don't push right back into Nina conditions by summer, hopefully can get a neutral year to show up.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. 

It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see..

[LibertyBell]

On 1/23/2024 at 11:39 AM, GaWx said:

 I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño.

 Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983.

 https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. 

It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see..

Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It looks like we should see a leveling off in region 3 coming up toward the end of the month and maybe even a rise again in 1+2 as the last little bit of warmth moves east. Subsurface cooling quite drastically this month really hope we don't push right back into Nina conditions by summer, hopefully can get a neutral year to show up.

Nina conditions would be good for a nice hot summer

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February?

 

That's what it looks like.. there has been a subsurface anti-correlation the last 2 Winter's. This year when the negative anomalies started showing up in the last week or two, we shifted to +pna and that looks to continue. Last February when we had warm water in the central subsurface by Jan-Feb, the atmosphere went -pna. I found that historically the opposite is usually true.

[brooklynwx99]

as postulated, the lingering WPAC warmth is helping make this Nino act more like a weak to moderate event rather than a super event. the difference is pretty obvious 

it wasn’t just weenie speculation saying that this wouldn’t act like a super Nino. it hasn’t, and it likely will stray further as we head into Feb. no wonder the MEI was moderate

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is not that much difference in the NAO because of "The -PDO depressing El Nino". 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's?

 

-23, -22

[GaWx]

On 1/23/2024 at 10:33 AM, GaWx said:

 After topping in Nov (fairly typical timing of a top), the OHC is already 0.9 lower than where it was then and is at its lowest since way back in early March of 2023 with it only near +0.6:

 

Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25

I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state. 

if it's in a la nina base state why aren't we colder lol?

[snowman19]

[George001]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Paul Roundy mentioned the possibility of a reversal in the replies. Possible Nina next year? 

[GaWx]

 There has been a significant weakening of the SPV on the Euro Weeklies for mid-Feb onward since the run of 3 days ago, especially for mid-Feb:

Here was the Jan 26 run: very strong SPV mid-Feb with 10 mb winds +31 with only one (1%) wind reversal then:

 

Today’s run’s mean has literally almost cut the Feb 19th wind in half to a BN +16 in just 3 runs and has ~12% with a reversal. Watch this period for possible future increases in probabilities. The CDN and FNMOC ensemble mean winds have also dropped somewhat for mid-Feb. Potential implications of a mid Feb reversal would be for early March in the E US:

[raindancewx]

For all the talk of the Nino being weaker, or the forcing being different or whatever, we've basically gone to a 1982-83/1997-98 temp composite so far. February looks similar, which makes me think it's not a fluke. 

I did warm it up a degree - but other than the Central Plains being colder and the coldest air being over the Ozarks, it's pretty decent.

The good news is March continues to look cold and stormy for almost everyone. That's the month I've been most interested in the Fall, none of the other months really looked particularly cold and stormy to me. The fluky Southern snow event around 1/15 should repeat around 3/1 as the most powerful storm of the entire cold season, with ample tornadoes ahead of it as well. All my analogs with the fluky snow in the south had this 45-days later - so I'm fairly confident in that.

Here is February and the CFS on 1/29. I'm sure someone will come in and point out all the ways 1997-98 in particular is different, but ultimately the cold air that winter was in Europe/Asia - and that's what we have this year. Cold in Asia often accompanies warm air flooding North America for weeks at a time, with brief breaks in between. The AO was at least technically negative in almost every month from Oct-Apr in 1997-98, and it just wasn't a cold pattern for North America due to overriding factors.

March