February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Really that is a “turn out the lights” run by the GFS.  That would be misery.  The cold is also on the Cfsv2 at 18z.  I do think western areas of the forum will see the most extreme cold.  I do like the eastern storm tracks which are showing up which would be a Nino signal as well as a secondary Niña climatology track.  Still a few days before the cone for cold and snow begins to narrow.

Really weird Winter. Almost as if it's a hybrid strong la nina strong Nino. Could be +QBO, very warm Atlantic SST'S, Volcanic activity, Stratosphere  and other warring factors causing so much chaos. 

      I suspect alot of oddities will take place more often as end times culminate. 

[SnowDawg]

3 hours ago, Silas Lang said:

This look reminds me a lot of Feb of years past. Storms with every p-type imaginable only to be followed by another. Can't remember the exact years, but somewhere between 2012 to 2015? Anyone remember? I just know there were a couple of Febs where we had some systems showing pretty much what the GFS just showed. 

Longtime lurker here, spend most my time on the SE forum, but here in North GA I'm kinda stuck in between this one and a very carolina centric one over there.

Definitely brings 2015 to mind for me. Had all but given up on winter by the start of February and then in the span of about ten days had three winter storms. First was a heavy ice and sleet event, then a light snow and ice event, and finished with a big Miller A all snow event. No doubt if you can get the setup just right, our hits can come in bunches, even within an otherwise mostly forgetful winter.

[Silas Lang]

14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Longtime lurker here, spend most my time on the SE forum, but here in North GA I'm kinda stuck in between this one and a very carolina centric one over there.

Definitely brings 2015 to mind for me. Had all but given up on winter by the start of February and then in the span of about ten days had three winter storms. First was a heavy ice and sleet event, then a light snow and ice event, and finished with a big Miller A all snow event. No doubt if you can get the setup just right, our hits can come in bunches, even within an otherwise mostly forgetful winter.

Yeah, 2015 was the last real big one I remember. I was in school at the time (student teaching) and I remember I was out for like 3 weeks. lol I forget if it was that year or another previous year, but I remember having some sort of snow/ice mix on the ground for a good chunk of the month of February. It would start to melt, but before it could clear out another storm would come and there were layers of frozen on the ground. Roads were awful for a while. 

This setup on the GFS with the the ice, sleet, snow, and cold reminded me of some of the those past setups. Hopefully we can score (but maybe without all the ice). February has always been the best month of winter in my mind. 

[Silas Lang]

Latest GFS looks different, but still winds up with a couple of inches of snow in the east. The Canadian also trying to show something at the end of it's run. Way too far out for specifics, but it is seemingly increasingly likely that there is a storm threat for someone in the southeast next week. 

[John1122]

GFS maintains massive winter potential but far enough out that we need to cross fingers and toes. 

[John1122]

Less ice that run vs 18z. Cold but not as insanely cold as the 18z too. I can do without -15. 

[snowmaker]

That would be a good winter snowstorm right there!

[John1122]

If, and it's a mountain sized if, the GFS by some miracle is correct. That would be a legendary stretch of winter weather we'd talk about for years. Snow on snow. Frigid temps.

[Silas Lang]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Less ice that run vs 18z. Cold but not as insanely cold as the 18z too. I can do without -15. 

I didn't even see this second event. Lots of opportunities. 

[Uncle Nasty]

Less ice that run vs 18z. Cold but not as insanely cold as the 18z too. I can do without -15. 

This is a very realistic snow map. Look at the little slug of a dusting of snow in Chattanooga surrounded by good snow for all other areas. I can see this happening.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

Right now, all global deterministic models show a similar set-up right after the 200 hour mark.  As others have noted, that is a long way out there.  For now, I just look at the pattern to see if it supports wintry precipitation.  Ensembles are slightly less enthused.

[Carvers Gap]

For now, I would say that chance for a strong(maybe severe) cold outbreak are growing, but for sure no certainty at this range. The STJ is active on modeling, and that has often been an error this winter I should note.  Trying to find the boundary between cold and the SER is going to be key.  That could be draped anywhere from along the Ohio Cincinnati to Jackson(MS) to Atlanta corridor.   I would suspect operational modeling is probably over-doing frozen precip as ensembles do not have that.   OTH, an over-running event is part of Nina climatology for the years cold can hang on into February(smaller cluster of those).  The question I think which needs to be answered is if/when this cold comes into the Plains, just how far to the East does it make it? Most modeling shows an initial dump into the Plains, and then a resupply that surges eastward.  It is on that surge eastward(which is maybe not quick) that multiple waves of precip are showing up on overnight modeling.

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling seems pretty consistent w/ the temp profile below.  The GFS is colder w/ temps approaching 0 yet again this winter for areas north of I-40 w/ wind chills likely below zero.  The EPS control seems like a good compromise between the 0z "warmer" CMC and bitterly cold 6z GFS.  From what I can see on both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro control, there are several waves of cold.  Many, many model runs will occur before this time frame arrives, so plenty could change in either direction.

[Carvers Gap]

And when I say "less enthused" by the ensembles, I mean snow means are not as rigorous as ensemble runs.  I think it is because they are so cold.  The 0z GEPS(cold bias noted for that model) has -30F air at the border in Minnesota between day 9-11.  And when ensembles show us in the 20s and 30s at that range....that is a very cold and extensive air mass.  I said this yesterday, it is the cold which is getting my attention.  So, we will see if it materializes.  I still expect a strong warm-up after this potential cold(I will keep saying that so maybe it won't! LOL) and then another cold shot after that.  When I made this thread, I fully expected this month to be VERY warm on average.  GIF with man throwing a stack of papers up in the air.

[Silas Lang]

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right now, all global deterministic models show a similar set-up right after the 200 hour mark.  As others have noted, that is a long way out there.  For now, I just look at the pattern to see if it supports wintry precipitation.  Ensembles are slightly less enthused.

Yeah, the Euro last night looked similar to the Canadian and GFS. Pretty good to have all in agreement on that type of setup with as chaotic as the models have been this season. The pattern looks good, just hope we can score something! 

[jaxjagman]

Last couple days the winds spiked up causing the temps to  fall some.What the models today are showing these winds will nowl die off,we should see a temp rise the next day or two

[Bigbald]

When do we get to trend from a moderate snow depiction to greater and greater amounts?  Why must it always be the opposite. 

[snowmaker]

12Gfs storms not there and temps are warmer around the first week of feb than before. Of course it will change. Maybe it will come back. Just hope the can kicking isn’t starting again. Looking for something to show up on modeling and stick. This storm to our northwest has been there for over a week and hasn’t hardly budged. 

[matt9697]

36 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

12Gfs storms not there and temps are warmer around the first week of feb than before. Of course it will change. Maybe it will come back. Just hope the can kicking isn’t starting again. Looking for something to show up on modeling and stick. This storm to our northwest has been there for over a week and hasn’t hardly budged. 

Never fear, the happy hour run will be different yet again! 

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC....might want to take a look at that if you live in middle and west TN. At d8-10, that isn't can kicking when talking details in a pattern vs long wave patterns.  Details are going to change over and over again.  That said, the CMC run is lights out if true.

[Carvers Gap]

Anyone have the 12z Euro run?

[Silas Lang]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone have the 12z Euro run?

Looks like it is delayed. Still just shows the 6z. 

[fountainguy97]

Wednesday evening-Thursday looks pretty interesting.

Has graupel squalls written all over it. Quick 15 min dusting type stuff. They can be pretty fun. I got nailed by a near 40dbz one a couple years ago here and it was white out for abt 10 min. Couldn't see 200ft in front of you.

 

[snowmaker]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z CMC....might want to take a look at that if you live in middle and west TN. At d8-10, that isn't can kicking when talking details in a pattern vs long wave patterns.  Details are going to change over and over again.  That said, the CMC run is lights out if true.

Yes I just saw the Canadian run, that would be a major ice storm if taken verbatim. I saw euro 12z on pivotal. Oops sorry it is not up to date yet. My bad. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Looks like it is delayed. Still just shows the 6z. 

Thanks, man.  I didn't see it at my normal haunts.  So, I figured something was up.  That makes me wonder if there was a data issue at 12z.........

[John1122]

There's an internet outage at the Euro headquarters and that caused it not to be uploaded from the model to the internet. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, John1122 said:

There's an internet outage at the Euro headquarters and that caused it not to be uploaded from the model to the internet. 

Thanks for the update, John!

[Carvers Gap]

Some good nuggets from the CPC this afternoon.  Take a look at those analogs.  You can see the storm track on their d8-14 forecasts.... temp, precip, and risk of heavy snow maps.

 

[Stovepipe]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There's an internet outage at the Euro headquarters and that caused it not to be uploaded from the model to the internet. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is rolling....we don't get to say that every day at 4:05PM.  If it is a crap bucket full of warm temps, I am calling this an off run.