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February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???


Carvers Gap
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To be clear, this potential cold shot falls right after the 240h window.  So, everyone knows the rules.  This is Jan 23rd, so all of this is speculative.  These are the d10-15 temp anomalies for the 6z GEFS.  The 0z GEPs looks similar, but slightly less cold.  Shift the 0z EPS a hair north with the green where it is straddling the TN/KY line.  

2D6A45C3-9AC9-412C-97BC-45C4602F9C74.jpe
 

 

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I do want to see the Euro Weeklies MJO.  The BOMM is trying to loop it back into cold phases and the Euro isn’t far from it.  What I am noticing is the MJO looping back into 2 and 3 which are cold for February.  Right now I am not even thinking storms, but just getting cold I to place for early February and then waiting to see if we can connect with the STJ.  For E TN, this is probably the best look in some time IF it verifies....

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1.23.23 Euro Weeklies....Farily strong trend of cold being eastwardly displaced(from the last run) into the Plains, Midwest, Upper South, NE, and eastern Canada.  They are also picking up on the colder airmass around Feb3rd-10th.  The can kicking this time is the warm-up being pushed back.  The 12z EPS was colder, so the Weeklies (derived from 0z) were not derived from a one-off run.  Of note, the SE ridge gets pushed back pretty far to the SE on this run until mid-month.  Roughly weeks 1, 2, 3 were cold w/ 4 seeing some moderation.  Feb1-10th is where the cold shot is centered.

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This look reminds me a lot of Feb of years past. Storms with every p-type imaginable only to be followed by another. Can't remember the exact years, but somewhere between 2012 to 2015? Anyone remember? I just know there were a couple of Febs where we had some systems showing pretty much what the GFS just showed. 

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If you ever wonder what the perfect setup is here in the upper south...Goofy just showed it. 1060+ HP crashing into the Midwest generating a LP on the leading edge...HP setting up far enough south over the OH valley to funnel/anchor the cold down both sides of the Apps (almost like a double CAD)..and an active STJ attacking the retreating HP.

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1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

Some pics because I am bored and holding a sleeping baby:

 

gfs-deterministic-chattanooga-sleet_total-5382400.png

gfs-deterministic-chattanooga-frzr_total-5382400.png

gfs-deterministic-chattanooga-total_snow_kuchera-5382400.png

gfs-deterministic-chattanooga-t2m_f-5512000.png

The cold worries me some.  Severe cold is showing up on many runs across global models from time to time.  The Euro Weeklies had a really nice high pressure strung from Alaska to Florida just funneling what I must assume is Siberian grade cold into the Lower 48.  No idea if overrunning verifies, but the cold is on the table.  Two crazy cold shots in one season would be impressive.

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17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

The cold worries me some.  Severe cold is showing up on many runs across global models from time to time.  The Euro Weeklies had a really nice high pressure strung from Alaska to Florida just funneling what I must assume is Siberian grade cold into the Lower 48.  No idea if overrunning verifies, but the cold is on the table.  Two crazy cold shots in one season would be impressive.

Ei-Half-Gal-Bottle-Hi-Performance-Powers

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Really that is a “turn out the lights” run by the GFS.  That would be misery.  The cold is also on the Cfsv2 at 18z.  I do think western areas of the forum will see the most extreme cold.  I do like the eastern storm tracks which are showing up which would be a Nino signal as well as a secondary Niña climatology track.  Still a few days before the cone for cold and snow begins to narrow.

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