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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah we were just starting to get better vibes in here again, lol Let's please just focus on the now as much as we can.

Don't you know they control the models to periodically show false positive outputs?  The positive vibes are just the weather-industrial complex stringing us along only to better crush our hopes and enjoy the sweet taste of weenie tears.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

Thought this was relevant for up here :lol:

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Models are as emphatic as ever about very strong stratospheric warming/SSW late this month into early Feb. Many Arctic areas are projected at 10 mb to warm 40-50+ C (72-90+ F) within just 5-10 days! The trend at 10 mb has been slowly toward a further N Alaskan ridge and further S SPV. These trends are increasing the chance that any SSW will be "major", which means that the mean wind direction north of 60N shifts from W to E. The chance for a major SSW is higher during the 2nd half of winter. Since 1958, there have been 13 winters with one in the late Jan to early Feb timeframe or 20% of them:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1981, 1987, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018

 How many of these 13 had significant multi week long cold periods to follow starting 10+ days afterward in the SE? Using ATL:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971 (La Niña with cold first half of Feb), 1973, 1987, 2001 (La Niña with cold March), 2006 (La Niña with cold Feb), 2009 (La Niña with cold 2nd half of Feb to early March), 2010, 2018 (La Niña with cold March)

- So, 11 of the 13 had significant cold to follow in Feb and/or March

- So, specifically looking at just the 5 La Niña winters with a late Jan or early Feb major SSW, all 5 later had significant and lengthy cold to follow in Feb and/or March.

 Conclusion: Because of the very strong SSW progged late this month, there's a very good chance for a multi week period in the SE dominated by significant cold in Feb and/or March starting at some point 10+ days after the SSW, which means most likely 2/10 or later.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Summary of the 0Z….

03309CA6-DEFC-48EA-A4F5-49D60545CE61.jpeg

What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift!

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift!

It does not look like we will pull a rabbit out of hat in the next week or so if the deterministic models are correct.  Boundary remains to our NW.  EPS is not updating on WB but maybe that is for the  best..

I have not given up but my expectations are low.   Congratulations to interior New England….WB 0Z.

It looks to me that we will have to see where we are later next week/ next weekend for a discreet threat. 

At some point you have to stop staring at 500MB potential and say WHERE IS THE BEEF!!!!

2FC48548-491E-4A45-8C5D-655C76473DC3.png

3DA10BE9-BF35-4000-A891-A2F9ECB5A8BB.png

760106D9-0298-48B0-898F-A06BF270A839.png

39BE368B-8049-4C41-B7EF-44C4A7645594.jpeg

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift!

The general pattern progression and timing on the ens runs hasn't changed. In my mind beyond the 25th is where the chances for frozen for most of our region would begin to increase. The 23rd has looked like a Central/N PA and north event on the means for awhile, with possibly the NW fringes of our area having some minor impacts. The Ji storm around the 27th has looked marginal for cold but certainly isn't dead. Beyond that is where the best potential lies but ofc we are 10 days away. Folks get tired of the waiting. With the depicted h5 setup, the cold will build and be close by, but the bleed southeastward probably comes incrementally with multiple events putting down some snow to our north first.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yup, after a horrible WB 0Z GFS from start to finish , 6Z tries to reel us back in for next week.  Such a volatile pattern, with no clear trends yet.

1661BF3B-C675-4B53-9B3D-40FA6CFF0C19.png

8B1866C5-D931-4F84-97D8-5881F6E58355.png

All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means.

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted.

We're likely to get zero snow from Jan 22 to when it warms up again

Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February.   Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd.  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February.   Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd.  

Fits the Roger Smith narrative....one legit shot early Feb, warmup middle 2 weeks, back to cold end of Feb. The guy forecasts thru the stars and is mostly spot-on.

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