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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol weren’t we just told a couple days ago that the PV is incredibly stable? Was that fake news? 

It is currently stronger than normal but is expected to weaken a lot at the end of January on the latest weeklies run. For the 14th threat it looks like it will still be strong, but I’m not sure if it will be circular anymore or not. If it’s strong but elongated we can work with that.

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42 minutes ago, George001 said:

It is currently stronger than normal but is expected to weaken a lot at the end of January on the latest weeklies run. For the 14th threat it looks like it will still be strong, but I’m not sure if it will be circular anymore or not. If it’s strong but elongated we can work with that.

Ya I don’t know if I believe that voodoo. Believe it when you see it in 3-4 wks. I wouldn’t count on it. Very skeptical on that. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not at all voodoo, it's just that it's much more complicated than people realize and is often misdiagnosed. 

Voodoo in the sense that it’s forecast many times, and nothing(the warming doesn’t occur, or if it does it’s not enough to do much) happens.   Then if it something does happen, sometimes it doesn’t affect our side of the globe.  Lots of caveats with it. 

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Voodoo in the sense that it’s forecast many times, and nothing(the warming doesn’t occur, or if it does it’s not enough to do much) happens.   Then if it something does happen, sometimes it doesn’t affect our side of the globe.  Lots of caveats with it. 

Right....the mainstream public's perception of it is what is voo doo. The science of it is legit.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

CMC blows Jerry.

 

Scooter already said the airmass is legit for the timeframe if it doesn’t cut or get cut off. 

But the guidance does cut it off.  Both gfs and cmc are similar.  I’m commenting on the depiction and it is plausible.  Some winters blow.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Canada should not be that warm if there is a high to the north. 

As we all know..it’s an OP run 200 plus hrs out..And it’s the CMC(which sucks).  I’m not sweating the OP runs flipping and flopping. But I like the discussion. So I guess it’s certainly a possibility. :blink:

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

As we all know..it’s an OP run 200 plus hrs out..And it’s the CMC(which sucks).  I’m not sweating the OP runs flipping and flopping. But I like the discussion. So I guess it’s certainly a possibility. :blink:

Look at the gfs.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

As we all know..it’s an OP run 200 plus hrs out..And it’s the CMC(which sucks).  I’m not sweating the OP runs flipping and flopping. But I like the discussion. So I guess it’s certainly a possibility. :blink:

I do think the Canadian is useful but yeah an OP run this far out is going to flop around a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next run the low is in Wisconsin!

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