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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2022-2023 OBS Thread


Ralph Wiggum
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12z euro only cut 95's snowfall down to .3" on Wednesday, down from 3-5"" at 00z. Can't say I didn't see it coming... GFS/NAM now are the snowiest models for 95 with 2". The rest have pity flakes to rain. GFS/NAM will probably come around to that soon.

 

Edit: was actually looking at 12z nam. 18z is snowless for pretty much everyone but the lehigh valley. So GFS on it's own....

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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z euro only cut 95's snowfall down to .3" on Wednesday, down from 3-5"" at 00z. Can't say I didn't see it coming... GFS/NAM now are the snowiest models for 95 with 2". The rest have pity flakes to rain. GFS/NAM will probably come around to that soon.

The 18z NAM (both 12k & 3k) ditched that idea. :mellow:

18z Canadian does give some more to N/W.

floop-nam-18z-snow-2023012318.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01232023.gif

floop-nam4km-18z-3k-snow-2023012318.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01232023.gif

floop-rdps-18z-snow-2023012318.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01232023.gif

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7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

....oh so less then 48hrs out a 2-4in snow fall for Bethlehem is slowly evaporating... shocking....

18z NBM has a bit more (as a blend) than the NAM/EC/CAN and earlier GFS) but the 18z GFS is running right now so will see how that goes (although obviously the 6zs and 18zs are sortof intermediary runs without all the data).

floop-nbm-18z-snow-2023012319.snowfall_acc-imp.us_ne-01232023.gif

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Nice - do you get up there during the winter?

Thanks Kamu!
It’s extremely remote and off-grid solar only, with only a cast-iron heating stove, so it gets pretty chilly (18° currently inside the cabin) but thanks to my Starlink internet and Blink cameras I can live it remotely!

Another disaster winter like this one down here and I’m packing up and moving up that way 12 months/year instead of the 6 months we currently spend there‼️

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42 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Thanks Kamu!
It’s extremely remote and off-grid solar only, with only a cast-iron heating stove, so it gets pretty chilly (18° currently inside the cabin) but thanks to my Starlink internet and Blink cameras I can live it remotely!

Another disaster winter like this one down here and I’m packing up and moving up that way 12 months/year instead of the 6 months we currently spend there‼️

Lol you could rent it out a week at a time to snow starved amwx peeps.

If you do move there, could you heat the house with your wood stove? 

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49 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol you could rent it out a week at a time to snow starved amwx peeps.

If you do move there, could you heat the house with your wood stove? 

 We have to drain the plumbing each October due to the harsh winters, so we’d have to get a four season cottage.

9DC7B044-2F04-4D47-9E38-C6776B0866E7.jpeg
Inlet bay from the Gulph of Maine (just to our SE).

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Should see a little sun today with temps as usual slightly above normal. Snow should arrive after rush hour tomorrow and quickly mix with and then change to rain...up to at most 1" looks possible before the rain. The NWS has put a Winter Weather Advisory in place for our bordering counties of Berks and Lancaster so those in the Far Western areas of the county should see the best chance of seeing the most snow we have seen this season >0.5" We should dry out for most of the rest of the week into the weekend with above normal temps and the next shot of rain not till Sunday Night into Monday.
The record high for today is 72 degrees set in 1967. The record low is 4 below zero from 1930. Our daily precipitation record is 2.76" from 1979 and the daily snow mark is the 3.7" that fell today in 2015.
image.png.f5cb6cd05c4e3569655d940a79d90a8e.png
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Nothing but a parade of rainers and cutters on today's GFS. Although if it has any skill at 330 hours :arrowhead:, maybe a little something at range.

Yesterday was my deadline for throwing in the towel. It didn't feel right to do so while it was snowing. But the winter IS a ratter, no doubt. I'll hold onto the towel until Feb 1 to see if anything is still on the table for the first week of the month.

For now, I'm going to enjoy a sunny day for a change. :sun:

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Nothing but a parade of rainers and cutters on today's GFS. Although if it has any skill at 330 hours :arrowhead:, maybe a little something at range.

Yesterday was my deadline for throwing in the towel. It didn't feel right to do so while it was snowing. But the winter IS a ratter, no doubt. I'll hold onto the towel until Feb 1 to see if anything is still on the table for the first week of the month.

For now, I'm going to enjoy a sunny day for a change. :sun:

The GEFS still looked promising though. 2/1-2/5 remains a period to watch. 

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