penndotguy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I’m looking forward to the return to somewhat normal temps, I hate the 50’s 60’s during winter. Im probably in the minority here but I’ll take cold temps regardless of snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 45 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I’m looking forward to the return to somewhat normal temps, I hate the 50’s 60’s during winter. Im probably in the minority here but I’ll take cold temps regardless of snow or not. Not at all, I'll take 0F w/howling winds snow or no snow. 49/Cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, RedSky said: I It's raining here with only patchy strattocumulus very strange Any visible chemtrails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Any visible chemtrails? No just a 300 yard mothership i figure they were emptying their toilets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Umm we just had a down pour with small hail and a rumble of thunder was this supposed to happen tonight??? Looks like to me we have a little chaos in our pattern I like that as a start to something different coming this time next week. Hmmm or possibly sooner come Sunday / Monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 same in Macungie PA downpour but no thunder. Nam is spitting out a chance for snow event for Monday. This is what I think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Humm. My mom loves in Galloway. Near ac. I might have to go spend Sunday night there if this holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5" The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The latest models for our largest snowstorm so far this winter season....buckle up and get those snowblowers ready!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gotta love the ECMWF...screw zone right through the area. 39F/light rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Gotta love the ECMWF...screw zone right through the area. 39F/light rain I've been kicked in the junk so many times the past 6 weeks I actually welcome it anymore and would be concerned if I stopped having my nuts and hopes crushed. By April I may have thrown all my snowman voodoo pieces and snowblower into my fire pit. Patience is wearing thin....this hobby is not for the weak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've been kicked in the junk so many times the past 6 weeks I actually welcome it anymore and would be concerned if I stopped having my nuts and hopes crushed. By April I may have thrown all my snowman voodoo pieces and snowblower into my fire pit. Patience is wearing thin....this hobby is not for the weak. This is odd for you. You're usually Mr Patience...I guess everyone has a breaking/cracking point. Yep, another overcast/cloudy/light rain/misty start to the day/40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've been kicked in the junk so many times the past 6 weeks I actually welcome it anymore and would be concerned if I stopped having my nuts and hopes crushed. By April I may have thrown all my snowman voodoo pieces and snowblower into my fire pit. Patience is wearing thin....this hobby is not for the weak. I am sure you will have another chance to be knocked in the nuts I am not believing but hey 81 hours out! It's like waiting to see if you football team will make it to the playoff with a win and needing 4 other teams to lose to get in. I think I am also pulling my $20.00 bet as it is too rich for my blood in the warm progressive pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I am sure you will have another chance to be knocked in the nuts I am not believing but hey 81 hours out! It's like waiting to see if you football team will make it to the playoff with a win and needing 4 other teams to lose to get in. I think I am also pulling my $20.00 bet as it is too rich for my blood in the warm progressive pattern. The sad reality is the wet snow to rain Sunday night is our biggest trackable event of the season so far under 84 hours. I'm not even sure it will warrant an advisory down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: This is odd for you. You're usually Mr Patience...I guess everyone has a breaking/cracking point. Yep, another overcast/cloudy/light rain/misty start to the day/40F You know me....I will be here til the bitter end of the season tracking and trying to find any positives I can. Murphy's Law with me is usually I'm overly optimistic in the LR and we fail every time....or I punt and we enter a pattern that is producing. I'm not punting yet and honestly until cold air gets reestablished up North I can't be optimistic in the LR. We are in a thread the needle game for a while longer. It would be nice to just get a clean event...a half decent non amped wave sliding under the region with cold air established on our side of a boundary.....no timing worries, no phasing concerns, not relying on a 50/50 or some telleconnection acronym to progress into a specific phase. Rant over. Now let's get some flakes flying Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know me....I will be here til the bitter end of the season tracking and trying to find any positives I can. Murphy's Law with me is usually I'm overly optimistic in the LR and we fail every time....or I punt and we enter a pattern that is producing. I'm not punting yet and honestly until cold air gets reestablished up North I can't be optimistic in the LR. We are in a thread the needle game for a while longer. It would be nice to just get a clean event...a half decent non amped wave sliding under the region with cold air established on our side of a boundary.....no timing worries, no phasing concerns, not relying on a 50/50 or some telleconnection acronym to progress into a specific phase. Rant over. Now let's get some flakes flying Sunday night. It seems we need everything to sync at the right time to receive a meassily 1-3" event. Anyhow, a Birds win and after the game a solid coating-1" would be a good way to end the weekend... 41F/light rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: It seems we need everything to sync at the right time to receive a meassily 1-3" event. Anyhow, a Birds win and after the game a solid coating-1" would be a good way to end the weekend... 41F/light rain The only thing I've learned in this hobby is I'm amazed it ever snows at all (considering the chain of events that has to line up perfectly). There's an old joke in cosmology that the only thing physicists have managed to prove studying the universe is that we probably shouldn't exist. 42F, light rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know me....I will be here til the bitter end of the season tracking and trying to find any positives I can. Murphy's Law with me is usually I'm overly optimistic in the LR and we fail every time....or I punt and we enter a pattern that is producing. I'm not punting yet and honestly until cold air gets reestablished up North I can't be optimistic in the LR. We are in a thread the needle game for a while longer. It would be nice to just get a clean event...a half decent non amped wave sliding under the region with cold air established on our side of a boundary.....no timing worries, no phasing concerns, not relying on a 50/50 or some telleconnection acronym to progress into a specific phase. Rant over. Now let's get some flakes flying Sunday night. That's what Sunday's event SHOULD be but the airmass just isn't cold enough. It's pretty unbelievable that we have precip type issues in what should be our coldest climo with a good storm track and it falling overnight. This would be an easy WWA event in most winter's but as is we are going to be lucky to see a C-1" ending as light rain... Even in crappy winters, we used to be able to score minor events in these kind of set ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The good news is the 12z GFS should ease any suppression fears for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Latest 12z models...NAM looks like 12 hours slower with onset of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, JTA66 said: The good news is the 12z GFS should ease any suppression fears for next weekend That's a nice 3-6" event...of rain It honestly reminds me of the feb 2021 storm that lingered for days and days except with no cold air this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Sunday night event is GFS/ICON vs everyone else. Not a good camp to be in. Probably another trace event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The good news is the 12z GFS should ease any suppression fears for next weekend What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z Gotta be all rain as you know the water temps in Sea Isle to Delaware Bay is running 47-49 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Gotta be all rain as you know the water temps in Sea Isle to Delaware Bay is running 47-49 or so. All about tracks - put a low 50 miles off the delmarva....it snows with 52 degree water temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: All about tracks - put a low 50 miles off the delmarva....it snows with 52 degree water temps The CMC has the low 50 miles off the delmarva and it's still mostly rain SE PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z They probably forgot to ingest new data But seriously, my point was there were some posts about suppression yesterday, which I can't understand why anyone would worry about that 7+ days out. Anyway... CMC has wrap around snows for us next weekend, so we got that going for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The CMC has the low 50 miles off the delmarva and it's still mostly rain SE PA. The fetch off the Atlantic is just too long over warmer waters this warmth will barrel inland far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The CMC has the low 50 miles off the delmarva and it's still mostly rain SE PA. I would take my chances for north and west of the fall line with that track every time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now