Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12z Euro still has the arctic front. Bar set at outperforming Thursday’s coating of sleet I went to set the bar but dropped it on my head That in itself is telling re: December 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: !2z EC doing a cutter... I think both globals are looking at that arctic amplification. Will have to see if that relaxes later next week. I feel like back in the 90s when we would get a wound up storm and long trailing front down into the GOM we almost always had something spin up on the boundary in the Western GOM and at the very least "threaten" the region. We can hardly even get a surface reflection anymore. The times have truly changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Canadian doing the same amplification scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think this was the "a lot of rain" option run that Mt. Holly mentioned this morning. Yep lock that up a White Christmas in Chester County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ukie has some of the storm in range but seems to be on the arctic blast train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well that was fun while it lasted. Three days of glorious snow runs to flooding rain. By Monday it will be locked in and we'll be looking to mid January for the next threat... As for this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS keeps my hopes for arctic frontal flakes alive. Yeah, cold chasing precip always ends well around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yup Ralph gets whitish ground from the arctic front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS has a buncha take-your-pick storms rolling along the bottom of that arctic high... You know it's bad when the clown map has less than the 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: Yup Ralph gets whitish ground from the arctic front. In the late 80s i could snort more powder in a night than what the 18z gfs gives my area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 What in good Gods creations is this? A blob of light snow heading in...it's a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 Had flakes in Blue Bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What in good Gods creations is this? A blob of light snow heading in...it's a miracle. It may run into drier air and evaporate. Temp here is 39 with dp 26.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What in good Gods creations is this? A blob of light snow heading in...it's a miracle. Not a flake out this way, but Im on the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In the late 80s i could snort more powder in a night than what the 18z gfs gives my area. That's half an inch of powder who are you Tony Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It may run into drier air and evaporate. Temp here is 39 with dp 26.... It's a light mix of rain/snow...nothing earth shattering. Definitely raw outside though w/a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Not seeing anything here yet, but hey, a coating of sleet and virga all in the same week? Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ten day blizzards don't happen. Everyone knows it but falls for it every time. Give it til Sunday to dial back in if it doesn't then it's done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 9 hours ago, JTA66 said: 12z Euro still has the arctic front. Bar set at outperforming Thursday’s coating of sleet Bar now reset to onion snows in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Clear east trend on the 0z models so far tonight for Thurs/Fri. This is not over. Odds are still stacked against us but there's a glimmer of hope. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0z GFS did move the system east making it more the apps runner but like the other globals, is showing some kind of overrunning rain ahead of the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6z GFS 2nd verse, same as the 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 After we get this brief cold snap out of the way next weekend all signs point to some serious AN temps in the LR with staying power. Comical how the sustained -20 departures models were showing a few days ago faded. We pretty much know that the AN will verify tho and stick around. Just seems to work out this way. Depressing tbh as we enter prime climo early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 -PNA locks in out west with a full lat ridge in the eastern US occasionally pumping the WAR in effect. If we want to get on the board we have a small window between the 23rd and 27th before we close the blinds for a bit. Full on PAC puke firehose: I'm using the gefs to illustrate as they have performed best in the LR thus far with overall teleconnection looks. See no reason to utilize the Eps which have been horid and mostly playing catchup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 We can hope these looks are only temporary as they may very well be. But even with that said, usually takes 10 days to reestablish cold up top that the PAC scoured out. Probably looking at a backloaded winter again as I alluded to weeks ago. Have to remind myself at times that this season (most Ninas actually) are going to require enormous amounts of patience. On a plus note, taking the Christmas decor down should be pleasant based on those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We can hope these looks are only temporary as they may very well be. But even with that said, usually takes 10 days to reestablish cold up top that the PAC scoured out. Probably looking at a backloaded winter again as I alluded to weeks ago. Have to remind myself at times that this season (most Ninas actually) are going to require enormous amounts of patience. On a plus note, taking the Christmas decor down should be pleasant based on those temps. There's a good write-up for next week here - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/coldest-arctic-airmass-winter-season-major-storm-christmas-snow-forecast-united-states-canada-mk/ It did confirm to me that the lakes are still mostly ice-free so there is still potential for big lake effect snow events (some that could send streamers into the northern CWA if the winds blow the right way). This is definitely La Nina-ish weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 As has been the case for this early winter season here in Chester County it appears we will see below normal temperatures for the upcoming week but then a brief but sharp warm up just in time to turn any brief snow at the start to a heavy rain on Thursday. For those who want snow we need these low pressure systems to track off the coast to our east to keep the cold air locked in. After the storm we will turn sharply colder by Friday PM with our coldest weather of the season so far on tap for Christmas weekend. Christmas eve day may struggle to escape the low to mid-20's for high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Yes Virginia if the NBM were to verify we may see a change to snow before ending and we would see our 1st White Christmas in 10 years! Need a festivus miracle!! Or technically a little anafront action!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just chased a fly out of the house. #deepwinter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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