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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Certainly, a bump in the right direction on the GFS. Let's see what the other models do. Without any of the blocking I'd be close to punting this one due to the usual nwest trend, but this is a unique set-up. Still lots of time to go.

Well said....well said.

 

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Kinda depends on where that high is going - if it's escaping off the east coast, maybe notsomuch. 

verbatim, follow up wave saves the day and many get snow, but yeah IF GFS evolution was legit (and 500's are notably different w/ Op less blocky, and ensembles showin blocking still nicely anchored to our N. 

That said, I'd just want that storm to show up and would think it a crowd pleaser for many stocking would be filled w/ snow (from shoveling of course) - not the ones on the mantle.

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13 minutes ago, paweather said:

The panels after this one is major ice. But we are so far out so just pointing to the signal. 

Signals are all we can look for beyond 7 days....and the signals are for lots of tracking coming up for many.  "Verbatim" analysis post 240 should ALWAYS be taken w/ this. 

BTW, go to 500 maps and look at Op vs ENS for said timestamp....you'll like the ENS much more.  Now mind you w/ Op being notably "off" vs Ens, that adds even more salt to the convo, as the Op may not be reflective of upper air pattern, and hence why what it is showing for said timestamp may likely be bunk.

Or the Op is correct and we get rain down here again.  Gut says no, but that could be the sub I just ate.

image-1

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All I want for Christmas...is a storm where we can actually use the TT snow maps.  TT is the smoother of the two between it and Pivotal...but the majority of the storms we have faced recently are not clean and the TT maps are worthless.  So, this forces having to go to Pivotal and deal with the clunkier interface to get more accurate maps. 

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Model evolution since my last posting on Saturday has generally trended toward a more progressive secondary coastal low. And when I say “progressive” I mean it keeps on tracking into New England and beyond vs a  stall and capture situation. That of course would take the Dec ‘92 2+day storm scenario off the table.

What we seem to be looking at with this is a primary wave of warm advection precip that progresses into the region on Thursday, that perhaps enhances as we get development on the coast. Since this keeps moving, we’re going to be on more of a time crunch to get the column right for all snow. Basically, this is the scenario mentioned last week  with the far west cutting primary hitting the blocking and forcing secondary development.  We will have CAD and the actual secondary low on the coast (which wasn’t being modeled much at all at that point), so think most of the subforum sees a mix event up front, transitioning to snow in the interior counties as the coastal low gets going. Further south LSV (LNS/THV) is going to be dependent on coastal track as the low lifts up (could transition to rain if it’s too close) while upper LSV places like Harrisburg eventually transition to a period of snow. CTP mentioned in their AFD about dynamic and evaporative cooling of the column as well, which could imply a situation where the initial precip shield ends up being a thump of snow after brief early mixing.

To put all of this simply, it’s going to be difficult to resolve p-type issues for awhile yet… per usual. 

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