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Winter 2022/23 Lake Effect Snow Thread


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Best in NW IN within the past 10 years was on January 21, 2014 when Griffith area had 20-24" of snow with estimated rates up to 4"/hour. That was the most recent truly high end purely LES event in the LOT CWA.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Yes, and I wasn't here for it.

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24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0600 PM SNOW ORCHARD PARK 42.76N 78.74W  

11/18/2022 M59.0 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER    

UPDATED STORM TOTAL AS OF 6 PM; AN   ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES SINCE 4 PM, WITH NO   LETUP IN THE SNOW.

We got hit harder in Hamburg then op if you look at radar. I think I’ll be around 65” or so next measurement 

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5 hours ago, London snowsquall said:

Good area for squalls, but not as good as Owen Sound.  The in-laws come from Midland - that's prime too.  How much snow on the ground?

I don't consider it a good area anymore, its been many years since a decent les event that was sustained. I find the best ones are when there is a firehose coming from the NNW not W. Something with the topology messes with the latter.

I have roughly 5 inches but some of it actually melted today due to the sun. A nice band is just to my north currently but I haven't seen anything of note. Some amazing returns south of Port Elgin, inland les for Stratford this evening.

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6 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Yep. That would do it. Crazy totals for around here anyways. Totals from 4 just south of town on up to near a foot in Pennfield/north side on back to Kalamazoo from what I am hearing via channel 3.. About 10 here by Emmett St and or a couple of blocks from Pennfield.. Work is about a little over two miles south so it will be interesting to see what a difference that makes. I'll be there in a hour.. 

Looking like one for the ages along 94. Been a while since GRR spent so much ink mentioning anything besides "131 and west". 

After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new
round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise
Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks
to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated
cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile,
farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly
deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft.
This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate
far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow
and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to
Clare line by the 9 AM time frame.

This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by
1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest
tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense
at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC
guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7
PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would
expect in mid January instead of mid November.

The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks
to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold
font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should
see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake
and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall.
Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as
is often the case in these scenarios.

In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a
gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the
same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described
above.

In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are
concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to
cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime
wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast
area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of
snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint
of this here at the office.

And they've added winds to 40 mph in the headline wording too. I know you're not the biggest wind geek like me, but you have to admit it's pretty wild for the first real event of the season. And ofc, it finally happens 1 yr after I've moved on. 

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29 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Looking like one for the ages along 94. Been a while since GRR spent so much ink mentioning anything besides "131 and west". 

After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new
round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise
Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks
to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated
cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile,
farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly
deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft.
This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate
far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow
and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to
Clare line by the 9 AM time frame.

This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by
1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest
tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense
at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC
guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7
PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would
expect in mid January instead of mid November.

The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks
to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold
font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should
see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake
and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall.
Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as
is often the case in these scenarios.

In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a
gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the
same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described
above.

In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are
concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to
cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime
wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast
area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of
snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint
of this here at the office.

And they've added winds to 40 mph in the headline wording too. I know you're not the biggest wind geek like me, but you have to admit it's pretty wild for the first real event of the season. And ofc, it finally happens 1 yr after I've moved on. 

 

Yep. I'll pass on the winds. That could also screw with the expected i94 band I think? Well see anyways.  I am in no way a expert on this lake stuff. 

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3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Kinda makes anything we might track this winter sort of a waste of time lol, as if it wasn't already.

 

While not Buffalos totals I am pretty stoked for what is coming off of lake Michigan which is impressive in its own right for around here. Top 3 event as far as LES goes for here. Could be 18-24 here by the time it ends Sunday morning. That's crazy for this area being as far inland as it is. 

For now it seems to be wrapping up for the night. Mainly just lighter stuff the past hour or so. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its downright scary out right now. I can't even walk anywhere there is so much snow. Its mind blowing, didn't even think it was possible.

Mind blowing is right.

I've had 60 inches of snow otg before, but not in ONE day!

This is beyond crazy.  Thanks for all your content.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Is it the wrong perception that the city of Buffalo has underperformed the forecasts so far?  Seems like the band has been more locked in than expected farther south.

Yes the BUF NWS missed the band placement by 10 or so miles. They followed the RGEM which is usually the best LES model but this time the HRRR nailed it.

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The HRRR also gets a gold star for its performance in Ashtabula County OH (northeast corner of the state) and Erie PA this last evening...its runs the night before had up to half an inch of QPF in Ashtabula (they got 2-4") and up to 1" of QPF in Erie County PA (they got up to 8")...the QPF was overdone, but it was sniffing something out. That said, subsequent runs showed almost 1.50" of QPF on top of Erie, that was a little overzealous. 

0z HREF PMM slightly too snowy, but got the idea right:

862430606_snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(3).thumb.png.62a5ac6c24a694cf890af324d5f5f7bf.png

The 0z Friday RGEM kept it out over the lake, a swing and a miss...

rgem_asnow_neus_30.thumb.png.62997b784965799675429dd7782e87fc.png

 

As for the rest of this weekend, the progressive nature of the trough leads to a short lived set-up with shifting winds spreading totals out, but on the plus side, the sharpness of the upper-level trough and origins from over Siberia (see loop below) will encourage very intense squalls off the mild November lakes along with gusty winds. 

gfs_DTpres_nhem_fh-72-60.thumb.gif.1609ffd674379c53dd14a4d68ba3fd4b.gif

A lack of band persistence/longevity will be a limiting factor overall, but if any persistent bands or upstream connections develop heavy rates would allow snow to quickly add up on a highly localized basis. 

1971400933_ezgif.com-gif-maker(13).thumb.gif.bdf1f7f8ff0565c340a9e66a4cdf7845.gif

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