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TS Nicole Impact Thread for Friday into Saturday


yoda
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Afternoon AFD from LWX mentions severe weather threat

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The long term period will begin with remnants of Nicole moving north
through our area. Recent guidance is trending quicker than in
previous days which would bring rain to the area Friday morning and
lasting throughout the day. Heavy rain on Friday could lead to
isolated to scattered instances of flooding with PWAT values nearing
and greater than 2 inches. The track of remnants of Nicole will
determine the amount and location of rainfall. Nevertheless, guidance
indicates high probabilities of over an inch of rain and up to 4
inches of rain for the area. While CAPE is limited (less than 150
J/kg), there will be upward to 50 knots of bulk shear over our area
Friday afternoon making thunderstorms and severe weather possible.
 
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17 minutes ago, high risk said:

Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor.    It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear.

Instability is below 500 J/KG... but those are some impressive looking hodos on the 00z NAM for Friday evening into early Saturday 

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8 hours ago, high risk said:

Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor.    It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear.

Question about how Nicole formed.  If it started as a subtropical storm, doesn't that change where the wind field is located within the storm?  If it does, could that wind field shift as it strengthens and becomes a hurricane? 

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

Ava showed graphics of the wind field during her morning weather hits. I like that, make people aware that yes, it's going to be rainy but gusty too

 

Looks legit, but being Maryland I fear that Nicole will be working the drive-in Friday night serving the most popular item - nothingburgers! ;)

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7 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Looks legit, but being Maryland I fear that Nicole will be working the drive-in Friday night serving the most popular item - nothingburgers! ;)

oh no. 

anyway -- I know that after Ian there was a lot of huff about how large the area impacted would be in FL, it's nice to see our local mets adjust to that and communicate the risks better, even if they are a 'nothingburger'

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Good timing 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 AM EST TUE NOV 8 2022

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D WEATHER RADAR IN STERLING, VA 
PLANNED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...

SINCE NOVEMBER 3, 2022, THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR, OPERATED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING, VA, HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 
THE REPLACEMENT OF ITS EMERGENCY GENERATOR, FUEL TANKS, AND 
ACCOMPANYING COMPONENTS. 

THIS SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, AND THE
RADAR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OF
COURSE AN ISSUE COULD STILL ARISE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DELAY THIS.

THIS MAINTENANCE IS IMPORTANT TO SUPPORT THE RADAR’S OPERATION 
DURING PERIODS OF COMMERCIAL POWER OUTAGES, INCLUDING WHEN 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT OR IN THE VICINITY.

THIS GENERATOR UPDATE IS ONE OF FIVE MAJOR PROJECTS OF THE NEXRAD 
SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM, A SERIES OF UPGRADES AND 
REPLACEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP OUR NATION’S NETWORK OF RADARS VIABLE
INTO THE THE NEXT DECADE. NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THE 
UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, AND THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION 
ARE INVESTING $150 MILLION IN THE SEVEN YEAR PROGRAM. THE FIRST 
PROJECT WAS THE INSTALLATION OF THE NEW SIGNAL PROCESSOR AND THE 
SECOND PROJECT WAS THE TRANSMITTER REFURBISHMENT. THE TWO 
REMAINING PROJECTS ARE THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE PEDESTAL AND 
EQUIPMENT SHELTERS. THE SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM WILL 
COMPLETE IN 2023.

DURING THE DOWNTIME, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM
ADJACENT WSR-88D RADARS, INCLUDING:
KDIX FT. DIX NJ
KDOV DOVER DE
KAKQ WAKEFIELD VA 
KFCX BLACKSBURG VA
KRLX CHARLESTON WV
KPBZ PITTSBURGH PA

ADDITIONALLY, WEATHER RADAR INFORMATION CAN BE GAINED FROM 
NEARBY FAA TERMINAL WEATHER RADARS (TDWRS) LOCATED AT:
TIAD WASHINGTON DULLES
TDCA WASHINGTON NATIONAL
TBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL 
TADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS

FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, GO TO THE 
FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV   A SINGLE RADAR SITE 
CAN BE VIEWED BY GOING TO THE “SELECT VIEW” MENU OPTION THEN 
CLICKING ON “LOCAL RADAR” TO SELECT A SINGLE RADAR SITE.

THE KLWX WSR-88D IS PART OF A NETWORK OF 159 OPERATIONAL RADARS. THE 
RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, PROVIDES LIFECYCLE 
MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT FOR ALL WSR-88DS.

FOR A RADAR MOSAIC LOOP HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV   

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST 
OFFICE IN STERLING, VA CAN BE FOUND ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT
@NWS_BALTWASH 
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@high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat.  SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong

Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there)

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20 minutes ago, yoda said:

@high risk 18z NAM soundings have pretty impressive hodos from around 21z FRI to 03z SAT across the region... SBCAPE/MLCAPE are in the 200-400 range... but a little concerned about the TOR threat.  SRH, along with low level and deep layer shear are pretty strong

Hmmm... 21z FRI at KEZF is just not a good sounding (i.e. definite TOR signal there)

20220829_193517.thumb.jpg.b5c6f4269734eef876a5f4fd6f3e436b.jpg

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