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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


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European is markedly better than the GFS for a clipper right after Thanksgiving. Euro punts the midweek rain. So, the Euro shows great snowmaking followed by some natural snow showers in the Mountains.

Black Friday opt outside. If the forecast holds, the choice is clear.  In contrast to tracking zig-zags; usually, a big flip in the continental pattern like that holds. :ski:

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Hey crew. I'm just over the hill in TN but figured I may start poking my head in here as my weather coincides with this thread most times. 
 
12z gfs finally came around to an extremely borderline but pretty significant NW event this weekend. 
 
829541BE-3472-4990-9504-8B6EF44D77CE.thumb.png.b71cab8b47c4af6376d48fba2f4b7436.png
Welcome to the group! What part of the border area are you in? And I know what you mean, I pay more attention to KMRX than I do KGSP forecast wise.

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

Welcome to the group! What part of the border area are you in? And I know what you mean, I pay more attention to KMRX than I do KGSP forecast wise.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

I'm in Unicoi County. Below Beauty Spot in Rock Creek area. 2,000 elevation on the nose. I do surprisingly well in NW events considering I'm not very high up. 
 

An amazingly complex climate in the Southern Appalachians. Pretty fun to see all the local snow "hot spots." And how it varies so much.

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

Youre just a stone'sthrow from me. I'm on the south SE slope of Big Bald in Yancey County about ¼ mile from the border. You live in a good spot with the valley upstream of you.

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Fantastic! Hoping for a great winter here! Yeah flow is mostly unimpeded for me even down low!

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When I left for work I was down to 14 degrees.  The GFS I have no clue what it's doing but it lost the storm again.  The Euro has been steady so far with the storm this Friday.  The EPS is heading in the right direction at the end of the period.  We will have a mild period at the first of December but I do think we step down in the middle of the month.

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When I left for work I was down to 14 degrees.  The GFS I have no clue what it's doing but it lost the storm again.  The Euro has been steady so far with the storm this Friday.  The EPS is heading in the right direction at the end of the period.  We will have a mild period at the first of December but I do think we step down in the middle of the month.
Woke up to a balmy 32 here at 4400 in Wolf. Looks like GSP isn't paying the GFS too much attention for Friday. b9f0724b3f4a74febde921f2353654f7.jpg

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It's beginning to look like a flood/possibly severe thunderstorms threat for late week. That said any upper disturbance with its origin the the Central Pacific riding into the Baja typically give the models fits. Let's wait until Wednesday for any certainty of what is mostly likely the sensible weather for Friday into the weekend.

Did anybody notice the very long range GFS? That is one heck of a blocking regime!

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

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17 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Long range seems to be up in the air at this point. Some models showing a typical La Nina pattern, others show more blocking and cold air around. We'll see what's right. 

That -PNA is going to be the fly in the ointment. We should’ve expected it wouldn’t stay positive. I just hope it flips back before long. The NAO going - is certainly a nice step but a -NAO and a -PNA spells nothing more than transient cool days I’m afraid.

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Everything still looks great heading into the second week of December. The telecommunications look to be lining up great especially with the AO and the NAO finally. Looks like this year we could see some legitimate blocking taking place that will help us.  We have a few days of near normal then back below normal after Tuesday. 

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There are sublet differences but the GFS and the EPS are both showing some impressive blocking setting up especially with the retrograding Scandinavian block which usually leads to great blocking for us. The negative NAO is west based also so that is a huge help. The date im looking at for significant changes are December the 5th which is less than 10 days away. 

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