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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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21 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Beyond the rainfall from Nicole, the pattern is beginning to look a bit interesting. A parade of disturbances appears likely trekking along the Northern Gulf into the SE beneath a potent full latitude trough. The first in a series of storm system begins to impact the Mountains Monday night into Tuesday with a chance of wintry weather and the second the following weekend and a third a few days before Thanksgiving. It looks like chilly air may well be entrenched during that time frame, it will be worth monitoring. I checked in this morning to Cataloochee's website and I noticed they were testing a few snow guns.  It's that time of year!

High mountains could get some wintry precip but there seems to be just enough of a SE ridge (and its mid November) to keep it too warm for most. Wetter pattern looks pretty certain unless the NW flow is too strong. 

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42 minutes ago, Phelps said:

Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold 

 

Thel day before October 18 they forecasted snowshowers in the highest elevations and it wound up snowing all the way to the lowest elevations that day. 

      Granted, that was October and Climatology was so warm yet, that Mets and many of the gen. Population thought pretty much, no way it will in lower areas 

       Mets generally adjust to Climatology. Ie, if Data is showing snow and 34 degrees Sunday night for Asheville, they'll say rain and 39 or so. If data continues to show snow and 34 they usually come down a degree or two each day closer to time of. Many will still jack up a couple degrees even the day of as they just look at the average Temperature so much. I disagree with adjusting to Climo as much as most do. I've saw it cause busted forecasts many times. 

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1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said:

The 12Z GFS suggests the possibility of accumulating snow in Asheville next Tuesday. It suggests rain/snow mix beginning here in Maggie Monday evening with 2 to 3 inches possible even into Waynesville. Cold air looks to wedge in nicely this weekend setting the stage for early next week. 

Wouldn't be surprised. It may take up till the day of before forecasts have it if Model's still showing it . 

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A very wet night and day yesterday.  Have already received 1.5 inches of rainfall which is something we have definitely needed.  And the heaviest of the rainfall is still to come. Looks like another 1 to 3 inches according to the models. 

As for snow chances I think that is going to be for the border countys only and only light snow at that but it's only November.  This is definitely a pattern change for sure. 

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