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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


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What a beautiful Fall day across the Smokies. Temperature never got above 62 here at the house. Moved the firepit back onto our backdoor deck and tinkered with the deck heater. Homemade chili simmered all day as well. Somebody is going to get the first frost of the season the next few mornings. Ian remnants likely to mess up Elk Fest here in Maggie this weekend unfortunately. 

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Yeah an absolute banger of a day! Current temp is 54 degrees.  Ian's track to me is still up in the air. So many variables come into play. But this weather this week is unbeatable besides a raging snowstorm.  I echo Ace that there are going to be some frosty spots this week. Leaf season will be full bore after this week.

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When I left the house this morning at 4:30 we had gotten down to a crisp 39 degrees.  Several places won't get out if the 50s today. Even colder tonight.  

The overnight model runs looks like 2 to 4 inches plus on the southern escarpment.  Looks like the remnants from hurricane Ian will meander around our area bringing a couple days of rainfall but with this extended dry spell I think that helps with possible flooding.  Still a lot of uncertainty though. 

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34 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

3 to 6 inches still a good possibility. All these last minute changes regarding track are likely not over.

Yeah especially with tropical systems.  We could literally go from getting a ton of rain to barely an inch all depending on strength and track. The longer it meanders in Florida the less potent it will be up here....

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GSP is pretty bullish on rain totals and overall impacts   

 

As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.
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Made it to 36 here at the house.

Camped up on Hawksbill in the Gorge last night and not sure what the temp was but it was breezy and cold this morning. Nice refreshing camping weather. I'm betting we see peak leaf color in 10 days on Grandfather at the current rate.

Here's sunset last night. Already quite a bit of color in the Gorge in the exposed areas. They always change early though.

8831ca7a698ac34b7d0f1148bfe6ea33.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk



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There are big differences between the gfs and Euro with regards to rainfall here in WNC. Seems like the euro has not really been on board with really big rainfall totals.  A solid 3 to 6 inches in my opinion still will cover the forecasting area but ill warn people small adjustments with the track of this could mean seeing 1 inch to 4 inches of rainfall. 

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