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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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17 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Long range seems to be up in the air at this point. Some models showing a typical La Nina pattern, others show more blocking and cold air around. We'll see what's right. 

That -PNA is going to be the fly in the ointment. We should’ve expected it wouldn’t stay positive. I just hope it flips back before long. The NAO going - is certainly a nice step but a -NAO and a -PNA spells nothing more than transient cool days I’m afraid.

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Everything still looks great heading into the second week of December. The telecommunications look to be lining up great especially with the AO and the NAO finally. Looks like this year we could see some legitimate blocking taking place that will help us.  We have a few days of near normal then back below normal after Tuesday. 

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There are sublet differences but the GFS and the EPS are both showing some impressive blocking setting up especially with the retrograding Scandinavian block which usually leads to great blocking for us. The negative NAO is west based also so that is a huge help. The date im looking at for significant changes are December the 5th which is less than 10 days away. 

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The pattern continues to look great after the 5th especially around mid month. There are going to be some major changes in the pattern from top to bottom. The biggest thing is the depth of blocking in the NAO and AO regions which we have not seen in a long time.  The ensembles continues to look good. The op models will change from run to run especially during a huge pattern shift as we will see. So if you are hedging bets on the controls then you'll go insane.  All in all im very excited for the opportunity for winter weather coming for the second half of December. 

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42 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Colder air is spilling in. We went from mostly cloudy and 48 to dense fog/mist and 41 in the past 15 minutes in Wolf.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk


 

This pattern is about to be unreal for you. The lakes are still warm and those fronts are going to bring a polar express with it. Can’t wait to see how much NWF you can rack up by New Years.

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Yeah temps are dropping. Diwn to 45 currently and windy. Going to be cold tonight.  Probably some teens around.  We will warm up the first of next week but it's all part of the plan. This blocking is very deep and extreme guys.  We've not seen this in some 10 plus years...
Assuming that blocking comes to pass. I'm hoping so but I'm not one to count unhatched chickens.

Operational GFS has been hinting at the 11-13 time frame for a while now, though, so certainly something to watch.




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A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad.  Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on. 

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11 hours ago, Met1985 said:

A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad.  Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on. 

Yep I’ve tried to back off my panic from yesterday. I’m just a sucker for a cold December but it does look like we get the PNA close to neutral and borderline positive by around the 13th. We all know that deep down, NAO or not, that’s truly the one piece that matters the most. 

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Also one of you fellas needs to set up a livestream or live reports for one of the better flow setups :rolleyes:. I lived vicariously through the Buffalo snow king two weeks ago and his reports were incredible. If you missed it, look him up on Twitter or crawl that thread in the upstate NY forum. 

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9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Yep I’ve tried to back off my panic from yesterday. I’m just a sucker for a cold December but it does look like we get the PNA close to neutral and borderline positive by around the 13th. We all know that deep down, NAO or not, that’s truly the one piece that matters the most. 

Yeah the target date was always around December 15th... We know the models have a massively hard time with large pattern changes and this is no different in my opinion. 

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Also one of you fellas needs to set up a livestream or live reports for one of the better flow setups default_rolleyes.gif. I lived vicariously through the Buffalo snow king two weeks ago and his reports were incredible. If you missed it, look him up on Twitter or crawl that thread in the upstate NY forum. 
I was shopping for a new webcam this morning for just that reason. In the meantime, this is at the countey club, which is less than a mile from me and right along a 4500' ridgeline.

https://mitchellweather.com/Webcams/Wolf+Laurel+Club

This is at the base of Wolf Ridge.


And here's a video I took of a NWF event at that location.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BgUYBJHHRMD/?igshid=MDM4ZDc5MmU=

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk



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47 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...

I agree I wouldn’t take any run verbatim, but with the kind of pattern we’re changing to, a storm could show up 3-4 days out and be game on.

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The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...
Yup, climatology is on our side more and more every day. I'm just patiently waiting!

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

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The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...
And the 0z is like "wat?"

500mb looks way different than the last several runs.

Still a ways to go but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some high elevation snow hiking on the 13th.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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