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June 2022 General Discussion


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Through June 21, Chicago has had 4 days AOA 95 this year, which is tied for the 3rd most by that day.  

Not including this year, 8 other years have had at least 3 days AOA 95 by June 21.  Out of those 8 years, all of them went on to produce additional 95+ degree days, and in some cases many more.  

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13 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Is GRR winding up with less than 1.00" of precip in June a statistic of note?  It's sitting at 0.85" as of now.

I'd say so.  It's only happened 4 times since the 1890s -- 1908, 1959, 1984 and 1988.  

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24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

As mentioned in the other thread, final high temps for today across the area...

93 MDW

89 ORD

90 RFD

89 Ex-Home

 

90°+ day tally for the year...

13 - MDW
12 - RFD
9 - Current Home
9 - Ex-Home
7 - ORD

That is big time to already be in double digits at RFD and MDW.  For both places, it ranks in the top 10 for 90s by this date (actually 4th place for MDW).

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Hit 95 both yesterday and Tuesday in Toronto.  Humidity had us feeling close to 110 B) Broke the daily record both days. 

Need some rain though, it's been really dry since Spring. 

I'm very surprised Toronto got to 95 yesterday, I only got to 83. The early evening got cool and dry.

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35 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I'm very surprised Toronto got to 95 yesterday, I only got to 83. The early evening got cool and dry.

I agree, I'm surprised myself. Maybe it's the UHI? 

Not even Windsor has hit 35C this year. Toronto has hit it twice. 

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13 minutes ago, Baum said:

What's the word on rainfall on Saturday? LOT sounded a bit more bullish this morning in their AFD.

With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most.  Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur.  After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. 

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most.  Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur.  After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. 

 

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most.  Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur.  After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while. 

How fast things change. Could sure use a meandering upper level low traversing the region with cool and showers. Of course, pretty much passed the time of year where those occur.

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I don't share the optimism for appreciable short term dryness/drought relief rainfall this weekend in the Chicago metro. The Saturday morning potential is from a likely rapidly decaying MCS due to outrunning the instability axis.

While the 12z ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET have optimistic outputs for the Saturday evening/night threat, the timing seems rather late and western and southwest/southern CWA appear more favored for any decent totals. Of the two periods, Saturday evening/night has the highest but still low chance for widespread appreciable drought relief.

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Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor.  Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot.

One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches.

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5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Some of the anomaly maps being posted really demonstrate the capricious nature of convective precip, very tight gradients between the haves and have-nots.

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Often the case at this time of year.  Best two ways to get more homogenous totals are organized MCS activity or a tropical system.

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The next ~3 weeks will be important imo.  Some signs of a more active pattern as we get to July.  If that does not pan out for some reason or if it's not spread around enough, then I think we're really in dangerous territory come mid-July based on where I feel like the pattern goes then.  

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor.  Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot.

One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches.

One could say we're living in some dtrying times.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The next ~3 weeks will be important imo.  Some signs of a more active pattern as we get to July.  If that does not pan out for some reason or if it's not spread around enough, then I think we're really in dangerous territory come mid-July based on where I feel like the pattern goes then.  

The Saturday precip does the classic Great Lakes Split.  Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan are in the screw zone between better forcing to the north and better moisture to the southwest.  The Wednesday cold front is losing strength and is moisture starved by the time it gets down here too.  Maybe a random popup before it comes back north as a warm front, but not likely as gulf moisture return is mostly to the west as usual.  I'm not counting on any rain until July 1 at the earliest.  Doom and gloom man.

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