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April Medium/Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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On 4/19/2022 at 4:51 PM, clskinsfan said:

I know PSU and some others have talked about how we have had a bunch of nice days this so far. But not really out here. It has been cold pretty much wall to wall with the exception of last weekend. 

April daily highs at Winchester coop station

80s: 1

70s: 6

60s: 2

50s: 9

40s: 2

 8 days more than 3* above normal 

4 days within 3* of normal 

8 days more than 3* below normal. 

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Maybe the problem is we’ve become so used to months that are 90% above normal that when we get a typical month we perceive it as cold. Dunno. 
 

Take right now…it’s absolutely gorgeous out and will be most of the next week…I’m not going to stress that there’s a few cold miserable days showing up on guidance way out. If we get a few cold days after a week of gorgeous warmth and it warns up again after a few days so what?   By the grace of god I can survive a couple cold days. So far spring has been a 50/50 mix of nice and chilly days but it seems like some are focused way more on the 50% chilly days. 

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Maybe the problem is we’ve become so used to months that are 90% above normal that when we get a typical month we perceive it as cold. Dunno. 
 
Take right now…it’s absolutely gorgeous out and will be most of the next week…I’m not going to stress that there’s a few cold miserable days showing up on guidance way out. If we get a few cold days after a week of gorgeous warmth and it warns up again after a few days so what?   By the grace of god I can survive a couple cold days. So far spring has been a 50/50 mix of nice and chilly days but it seems like some are focused way more on the 50% chilly days. 

I think the issue is extremely easy:

Abnormally cold spring day: feels sucky out
Abnormally warm spring day: feels amazing out unless it’s absurdly AN
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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


I think the issue is extremely easy:

Abnormally cold spring day: feels sucky out
Abnormally warm spring day: feels amazing out unless it’s absurdly AN

True. But it’s a little unrealistic to expect spring to be wall to wall normal to above normal days.  Our normal high to start spring is still in the 50s and doesn’t reach 70 until the very end of April. We’ve had a pretty typical temperature distribution and yet some are acting like it’s been awful. It seems like they expect April to have typical May temperatures.  

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13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


I think the issue is extremely easy:

Abnormally cold spring day: feels sucky out
Abnormally warm spring day: feels amazing out unless it’s absurdly AN

Another possible perceptive bias is because of how we analyze in here. We’ve really had two cold snaps that each lasted 48-72 hours but if you spend a week obsessing over it before it even arrives it can feel a lot longer.  

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

April daily highs at Winchester coop station

80s: 1

70s: 6

60s: 2

50s: 9

40s: 2

 8 days more than 3* above normal 

4 days within 3* of normal 

8 days more than 3* below normal. 

Agree.  April has felt like April, with the exception of Monday. 

And Monday was what April should be!

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe the problem is we’ve become so used to months that are 90% above normal that when we get a typical month we perceive it as cold. Dunno. 
 

Take right now…it’s absolutely gorgeous out and will be most of the next week…I’m not going to stress that there’s a few cold miserable days showing up on guidance way out. If we get a few cold days after a week of gorgeous warmth and it warns up again after a few days so what?   By the grace of god I can survive a couple cold days. So far spring has been a 50/50 mix of nice and chilly days but it seems like some are focused way more on the 50% chilly days. 

this is my take as well - honestly a "cold" day in late April is still highs 55-60.  Not exactly unbearable.  And the "cold" is fleeting.

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I feel like we’ve beaten this to death. We need a thread to discuss feelings on each months temps. :hurrbear:

People can feel however they want. I was just pointing out that according to the actual numbers it’s been pretty typical.  But that has nothing to do with feelings. If someone expected wall to wall 70s then sure it’s been horrible. I’d argue that’s unrealistic but whatever. That’s each persons prerogative how to feel.

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

April daily highs at Winchester coop station

80s: 1

70s: 6

60s: 2

50s: 9

40s: 2

 8 days more than 3* above normal 

4 days within 3* of normal 

8 days more than 3* below normal. 

Why not use the NWS site at KOKV?

80’s  -  1

70’s  -  4

60’s  -  1

50’s  -  12

40’s  -  1

30’s  -  1

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11 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Agree.  April has felt like April, with the exception of Monday. 

And Monday was what April should be!

Was out your way Monday evening. Looked like you had 5-6” of snow out there.

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Probably (at least) another frost advisory for the first week into May.  Not really uncommon for us.  It's a PITA this year because I have tiny (starter) Hibiscus trees that are pretty much intolerant of sub 40s and really don't like 50s and my indoor plant room is preoccupied.

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23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was out your way Monday evening. Looked like you had 5-6” of snow out there.

Depends on where you measured.  I went with 2.75", but it probably compacted and melted some by the time I got home.  I spent the day on the mountain hiking.  And at 2000'+ that was every bit true.  It was amazing.

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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Best April in a long, long time!

I have quite enjoyed it. Many days that feel like Fall, and since our Fall weather seemingly comes later each year and bleeds into winter, I love not having a longwave pattern that switches instantly to the usual persistent warm/humid. This is what April should be. I am hoping this continues well into May, where ofc temps would be warmer, but stave off the inevitable perpetual MA heat.

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52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have quite enjoyed it. Many days that feel like Fall, and since our Fall weather seemingly comes later each year and bleeds into winter, I love not having a longwave pattern that switches instantly to the usual persistent warm/humid. This is what April should be. I am hoping this continues well into May, where ofc temps would be warmer, but stave off the inevitable perpetual MA heat.

I'm hoping for one last measurable snow!  Hopefully in May. :D

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part of the issue has been the clouds and wind which have been more the rule than the exception for about 5 months now.  sure, temps may be near normal, but it has definitely felt like a less than ideal spring so far with the exception of last week.  sunny and 50s feels a lot better than cloudy/windy and 50s.  must be a la nina trait with the fast flowing northern stream as it's felt more like the northern mid-atlantic than southern.

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5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why not use the NWS site at KOKV?

80’s  -  1

70’s  -  4

60’s  -  1

50’s  -  12

40’s  -  1

30’s  -  1

It was the first coop that came up for his zip.  Wouldn’t change much.  Several of those 50s must have been upper 50s when the avg high was ~60 early in the month. Saying that based on what the numbers at the coop I saw were and unlikely to be that far off. Overall it was running about normal before that 2 day cold snap. Right now it’s slightly below and projected to be back to normal or slightly above by next week if the forecast is correct.  It’s been a pretty avg April overall. There were a few anomalously warm and cold days but most days fell within a standard deviation of normal.  There were really only 4 truly anomalously cold days but it felt like more maybe because we spend a week talking about the cold before it started both times.  I remember getting a chuckle about people complaining about the cold 4 days away when it was nice out as they wrote that. 

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5 hours ago, 87storms said:

part of the issue has been the clouds and wind which have been more the rule than the exception for about 5 months now.  sure, temps may be near normal, but it has definitely felt like a less than ideal spring so far with the exception of last week.  sunny and 50s feels a lot better than cloudy/windy and 50s.  must be a la nina trait with the fast flowing northern stream as it's felt more like the northern mid-atlantic than southern.

Agree about the wind.  It has been incessant since February out here.  It only changes directions.

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the first coop that came up for his zip.  Wouldn’t change much.  Several of those 50s must have been upper 50s when the avg high was ~60 early in the month. Saying that based on what the numbers at the coop I saw were and unlikely to be that far off. Overall it was running about normal before that 2 day cold snap. Right now it’s slightly below and projected to be back to normal or slightly above by next week if the forecast is correct.  It’s been a pretty avg April overall. There were a few anomalously warm and cold days but most days fell within a standard deviation of normal.  There were really only 4 truly anomalously cold days but it felt like more maybe because we spend a week talking about the cold before it started both times.  I remember getting a chuckle about people complaining about the cold 4 days away when it was nice out as they wrote that. 

I’m pretty sure I know what that coop is and can tell you 100% that the temps it records are high. Not occasionally high but every single reading. If it’s the one I’m thinking it is, it is located very close to the airport and it’s temps should not differ by the amount that it does. Even at that station, if that’s the one, his temps are almost 2 degrees below normal for the month.

Of course I could be wrong and you are using a different site but I don’t know that many that are out here.

I do agree that this month has been pretty much an average month though. A couple of degrees either way in my book is pretty average.

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5 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Agree about the wind.  It has been incessant since February out here.  It only changes directions.

That is normal out here. This is your first full season NW of the Sahara of Winchester. :) Nice thing about that wind is in the middle of August when DC is 95 with 90% humidity and still as hell. We get to be 88 with a stiff breeze. That wind changes everything. Although I will be in OC sweating my M&M's off. 

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