Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 Enhanced risk has been expanded into DFW, & so has the Hatched area for Tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Enhanced risk has been expanded into DFW, & so has the Hatched area for Tornadoes. Yep. The only thing that has been retracted somewhat back to the SE is the 30% wind area, which makes sense. With the cool surface temps and the storms not organizing into a QLCS until east of here, that was always a relatively lower threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Quincy said: I’m not sure the cap is very strong. If you look at the 00z and 06z 3km NAM, they both show cellular convection along the Dallas - Round Rock corridor. If anything, it’s more concerning that the NAM is showing more isolated convection, as it’s the case that many of these setups get junky fast with too much convection. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. The only slight limiting factor may be modest low-level lapse rates, due in part to early precipitation. Still, even with 0-3km lapse rates only near 6 C/km, the quality of the boundary layer moisture profile supports large 0-3km MLCAPE, on the order of 100-200 J/kg. This, along with strong wind profiles supports a significant tornado threat As echoed before, this is not exactly a common occurrence for a synoptic severe weather outbreak, this far south. HRRR looks nasty with intense, semi discrete convection. NAM is nasty with a weaker looking broken band of convection within a volatile parameter space. Either scenario isn’t good (if you don’t like damaging thunderstorms). It's a weak cap that's been show from time to time on the NAM and other hi-res models (-25 to -50 J/KG of CINH), which isn't much, but it could be just enough to keep storm development along the dry line from getting too intense as the better dynamics with the LLJ will have shifted to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 SPC hinting at a possible Mod Risk Upgrade in TX for I-35 and E in future outlooks via the 12z update. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: SPC hinting at a possible Mod Risk Upgrade in TX for I-35 and E in future outlooks via the 12z update. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html You can also see their skepticism about the threat levels up towards DFW (for understandable reasons). That said, can't argue against the model trends either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Wouldn't be shocked to see some insane reflectivities today with the hail. I'm not 100% sold on the strong tornado threat today though, the LLJ isn't totally syncing up per models yet with when the cells are expected today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Wouldn't be shocked to see some insane reflectivities today with the hail. I'm not 100% sold on the strong tornado threat today though, the LLJ isn't totally syncing up per models yet with when the cells are expected today SPC mentioned that as a possible limiting factor in their discussion at 13Z. Probably why they haven't gone 15% hatched MDT for tornadoes yet, given how ominous some of the HRRR sim ref/UH maps have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 LCLs will be quite low here around Houston, little T/Td spread, but for that same reason instability will be limited. Just perusing the guidance, Houston probably should not be in an enhanced risk, I think storms only on the actual front, which, of course, could still be severe, but the supercells look I-35 and East from about Austin to I-20. I'm looking to see if clouds mix out NW of here, they rarely do in Houston proper, with cool shelf waters the low clouds rarely burn off in March. AUS, ACT and CLL might be different. Large tornadoes are rare enough this far South I doubt schools will release early in the area of greatest tornado risk. (Waco 1953 tornado shows big tornadoes not impossible down here, just not frequent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: LCLs will be quite low here around Houston, little T/Td spread, but for that same reason instability will be limited. Just perusing the guidance, Houston probably should not be in an enhanced risk, I think storms only on the actual front, which, of course, could still be severe, but the supercells look I-35 and East from about Austin to I-20. I'm looking to see if clouds mix out NW of here, they rarely do in Houston proper, with cool shelf waters the low clouds rarely burn off in March. AUS, ACT and CLL might be different. Large tornadoes are rare enough this far South I doubt schools will release early in the area of greatest tornado risk. (Waco 1953 tornado shows big tornadoes not impossible down here, just not frequent) Houston area got several significant tornadoes (including an F4 and an F3 each with a path length of at least 30 miles) early on in the multi-day outbreak of November 1992. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Houston area got several significant tornadoes (including an F4 and an F3 each with a path length of at least 30 miles) early on in the multi-day outbreak of November 1992. That was an early cool season outbreak, when the Gulf was warm and onshore winds didn't guarantee low clouds, fog and drizzle. IIRC. the shear that day was also extreme. Spring, the cap rarely breaks this close to the coast in the open warm sector. Our storms will be late tonight on the actual front, if I had to guess. CLL and UTS are far enough inland, there may be enough breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 HREF seems to support my idea for Texas this afternoon. Best tornado chances I-35 from DFW area to Austin, along and North of a WSW-ENE line from AUS to CLL. Some spinners possible HOU area itself with morning lines. Tomorrow's Louisiana/Mississippi STP with updraft helicities overlain is absolutely scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: HREF seems to support my idea for Texas this afternoon. Best tornado chances I-35 from DFW area to Austin, along and North of a WSW-ENE line from AUS to CLL. Some spinners possible HOU area itself with morning lines. Tomorrow's Louisiana/Mississippi STP with updraft helicities overlain is absolutely scary. Houston has the parameters but the storm mode looks very messy but I think there could some significant tornadoes if one of the cells can get in a good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Moderate risk for TX incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Upgrade to moderate for hail, they even mention tornado risk remains mostly unchanged. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Upgrade to moderate for hail, they even mention tornado risk remains mostly unchanged. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk They added a 15% tornado area around College Station, as well as a decent sized 45% hatched wind area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Significant clearing in Texas now. Looks like a very active day shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 NW of DFW, watch likely, language suggests severe thunderstorm, not tornado watch. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0291.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Storms trying to form just East of I-35. RAP 2 pm sounding just East of Waco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Storms trying to form just East of I-35. RAP 2 pm sounding just East of Waco. That's a pretty alarming sounding, is it not? No VBV that I can see on the winds, looks like a lot of shear and ample instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Storms trying to form just East of I-35. RAP 2 pm sounding just East of Waco. Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said, they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said,they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough. College Station sounding does have about 1000 MLCAPE and a gigantic hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 The requested URL /products/md/md0292.html was not found on this server. will be for tornadoes, watch likely. Edit- language makes me wonder if maybe a PDS is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Watching what looks like a gravity wave trying to initiate near Bandera with the dry line trying to get popping near Del Rio. If the latter takes off, San Antonio's problems will definitely be trending worse. Certainly want to be anywhere near Austin later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 You can tell the environment is loading up ammo in a big way here as that low strengthens. Temps in the 90s down around Corpus Cristi with some serious moisture getting pumped up north. Lapse rates look pretty good for later on as well, the hail threat is going to be legit here. I’m not sold on the strong tornado threat completely lining up today though, it seems the best helicity will stay to the east of the cells but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Looks like we got our first tornado warning of the day. We’ll also need to watch that (blue-circled) storm west of Stephenville too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Starting to get peeks of sun here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html 70-50 tor probs on the watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 70/50 tor probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 It looked like a pretty strong-looking rotation signature west of Graford just a moment ago (it seems to have weakened slightly on the next scan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Getting some sun out by the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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