Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,126
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    laikakat
    Newest Member
    laikakat
    Joined

3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, Major Tornado Damage in New Orleans


Recommended Posts

Thursday, March 17th, 2022 could be a Triple Point event for Oklahoma & eventually Texas. (HRRR has Texas somewhat capped, but Oklahoma gets the Severe Weather breakout at the Triple Point)

OK_swody2.png

 

Next Monday, March 21st, 2022 has some really high potential for Central, Southern, & Eastern Texas (Oklahoma may get some of the action if the Warm Front moves farther north than expected), the Day 6 Discussion had some really strong wording, including 2+ Inch Hail & Tornadoes.

Quote
  By Monday/Day 6, as the next upper trough shifts into the central
   and southern Plains, an evolving cold front is forecast to cross the
   western half of Texas.  Strong southeasterly low-level flow will
   advect a moist Gulf airmass into Texas, contributing to afternoon
   destabilization.  Meanwhile, as a strong (100 kt) southwesterly
   mid-level jet associated with the upper system overspreads the
   southern Plains atop the low-level southeasterlies, shear quite
   favorable for supercells is expected.  As convection develops near
   and ahead of the cold front, evolution of locally intense/severe
   storms -- including potential for very large hail and tornadoes --
   is expected.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022 & 3/21/2022 Severe Weather
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 AM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Models continue to depict likelihood for a multi-day -- and
   potentially widespread -- severe weather episode across the
   south-central and southeastern U.S. through the first part of next
   week.  Deterministic global models, as well as both GEFS and ECMWF
   ensemble means, are in good agreement with pattern evolution through
   Day 6 and into Day 7, lending confidence to the evolving scenario.

   Day 4/Sunday, a digging upper trough will shift across the western
   U.S., with a closed low expected to evolve over New Mexico vicinity
   overnight.  Low-level moisture will be returning into the southern
   Plains at this point, but in an incomplete manner, and thus any risk
   for severe weather late Sunday night/Monday morning should remain
   rather low, and likely confined primarily to hail with elevated
   overnight storms.

   By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New
   Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve
   over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma.  As this
   occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly
   the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold
   front.  As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm
   coverage an intensity is expected.  With very strong
   southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop
   south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor
   supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support
   potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong.  Large hail and
   damaging winds are also expected.

   As the upper system makes only slow eastward progress Day 6/Tuesday,
   another day of severe weather is expected, displaced somewhat to the
   east as the surface front progresses.  Continued influx of Gulf
   moisture into the warm sector will permit ample CAPE to develop,
   while strong low-level and deep-layer shear will again be present
   across the warm sector.  This will again favor an all-hazards severe
   event, including tornado potential, that will continue through the
   evening and into the overnight period.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Might get a little action today as well, but the big event is Monday.  Waco looks to be about ground zero for the action.

I honestly don't remember the last time I've seen Day 5 ENH.  I believe it's been at least a few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z runs are a bit more progressive with the trough, and have shifted the threat more into East TX and Western LA. We'll see if that's the start of a trend, although models have a tendency to be too quick with cut off ULLs.

On a mesoscale level, past history suggests that when you have such a messy cloud cover/precipitation activity early in the day (as the models are depicting for Monday morning), the better risk areas are outflow driven and forced further to the SE than the synoptic setup would suggest

So my preliminary thinking is that the Metroplex may yet again avoid the more significant activity. Today being a near-miss to the NE and Monday being a near-miss to the SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 48
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   355 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central and Southern Oklahoma
     Northcentral Texas

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
   northeast through this evening, with a risk for large hail and
   damaging thunderstorm gusts. An isolated report of very large hail
   will also be possible, in addition to the potential for a tornado or
   two.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Fort
   Sill OK to 25 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   22035.

   ...Bunting
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Powerball said:

A decent looking CU field has formed along a line out near Eastland down to Brownwood.

If there's any initiation this far south (still questionable), that's where it would be.

Seeing returns starting to blossom out of that CU field and the cap now looking pretty weak, I'm now feeling a bit more optimistic about activity in the Metroplex 1-2 hours from now.

That said, depending on the extent of southward development, any activity may still skirt by to the NW of the heart of DFW as it rotates around the shortwave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

   Areas affected...North TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

   Valid 172255Z - 180030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across
   North TX over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasingly
   agitated cumulus along the dryline moving into north TX. Forecast
   soundings in much of this region continue to show warm temperatures
   aloft, supporting convective inhibition. Most recent mesoanalysis
   estimates MLCIN is around -25 to -50 J/kg. Recent ACARS soundings
   from DAL also continue to show capping, with MLCIN around -30 to -35
   J/kg. Even so, convergence along the boundary is quite strong and
   moisture advection continue in the downstream environment. Dewpoints
   have increased along the I-35 corridor 3-4 degrees over the past 3
   hours. 

   Given these improving thermodynamics and persistent low-level
   convergence, the potential exists for a few deeper, more sustained
   updrafts. Wind profiles show strong low-level veering but a
   pronounced weakness in the mid-levels. As a result, storm
   organization will likely be somewhat limited. Even so, a few strong
   to severe storms are possible and watch expansion southward may need
   to be considered soon.

   ..Mosier.. 03/17/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32549661 32149693 31979742 32049779 32289802 32649800
               32729801 33239798 33699796 33859768 33839718 33769677
               33599660 33289651 32549661 
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

The storms around DFW seem to be struggling to initiate into stronger cells; a local met with NBC 5 said it was because of the cap.

Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check.

If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check.

If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more.

That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly.  
 

If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

That said, it seems like the radar return intensity over Irving and The Colony has increased slightly.  
 

If any storm cell in Texas is going to try to take a shot at turning severe, that tail end storm over I-35E/I-635 probably has the best shot at doing that.

Storms have a lot more lightning with them than the detector lets on, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, high risk possible with rare D4 & D5 Enhanced Risks

The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction.

Agreed, there doesn't seem to be as much of an overlap between that extremely favorable shear and sufficient instability on these more recent runs. Looks more like a broad brushed slight with a pocket of enhanced in central Texas to me, if these trends hold. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

Agreed, there doesn't seem to be as much of an overlap between that extremely favorable shear and sufficient instability on these more recent runs. Looks more like a broad brushed slight with a pocket of enhanced in central Texas to me, if these trends hold. 

Southern & Eastern Texas is in western Dixie Alley & is really close to the GoM, it could really trend towards a more dangerous setup in the next few days, that's why that a high risk is currently possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KEWX (Austin/San Antonio):

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
As the longwave trough moves into the Rockies, cyclogenesis on the
High Plains will quickly strengthen, resulting in a strong response
of southerly return flow. This will bring a big change in boundary
layer humidity by Sunday afternoon.

A short wave trough passing through the longwave trough will eject
into Texas Sunday night. When combined with the typical strengthening
of the diurnal low-level jet, there are good chances for elevated
convection early over our area. CAPE values are moderate in the
750-1000 J/kg range, but mid level lapse rates should support hail.
In addition, low level shear is quite strong, especially in the
framework of 0-1 or 0-3 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. So if any storms can
become rooted to the surface, there could be an overnight/early
morning tornado threat.

The prospects for convection later in the day on Monday will hinge on
what occurs earlier in the day. But the projection of the initial
storms waning and leaving a minimally disturbed boundary layer leads
to anticipation of the cold front/dry line forcing a line of severe,
linear convection Monday afternoon to late evening. These storms
would have less instability and shear, but be rooted at the surface,
and potentially be more of a damaging wind and tornado threat.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

unknown.png

Day 3 Enhanced is up.

  SPC AC 190729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms appear likely to occur across an area centered over
   eastern Texas and into western Louisiana on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large/strong upper trough is forecast to emerge from the western
   U.S. into the Plains Monday, with strong ridging flanking the trough
   to both the west and east.

   As an upper low at the base of the trough moves out of New Mexico
   and into the Texas South Plains/Panhandle region through the
   afternoon, a surface low is forecast to move toward western North
   Texas through the afternoon.  Ahead of an advancing/trailing cold
   front, a preceding dryline should mix eastward into central Texas
   during the afternoon.  Overnight, an elongated low should be
   crossing the eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma vicinity, with the cold
   front crossing East Texas through the latter stages of the period.

   ...Portions of central Texas eastward to western Louisiana...
   Strong southeasterly/southerly low-level flow is forecast across the
   southern Plains early Monday, ahead of the advancing upper low. 
   Strong warm/moist advection associated with the southerlies, atop a
   largely-still-stable boundary layer, will support an expansion of
   elevated thunderstorms across central Texas and Oklahoma through the
   morning hours.

   This blossoming of precipitation complicates the forecast for later
   in the day, casting uncertainty onto the degree of surface-based
   CAPE which may develop -- particularly with northward extent. 
   However, with persistent southerlies advecting Gulf moisture
   northward, gradual south-to-north destabilization of the boundary
   layer is expected -- at least across east-central portions of Texas.

   By afternoon, potential for surface-based storm development is
   evident near advancing dryline across central Texas.  Meanwhile
   farther east, storms along the southern portion of the
   larger/ongoing area of convection should also become surface-based
   with time.  Strong/increasing flow with height, combined with
   substantial veering through the lowest 3km, will provide shear quite
   favorable for supercells.  As such, along with potential for large
   hail with developing central Texas storms, risk for tornadoes should
   increase through the afternoon farther east.

   Through the evening and into the overnight hours, the favorably
   moist/modestly unstable airmass should expand eastward across the
   Sabine River into Louisiana.  With very strong deep-layer shear
   continuing, risk for tornadoes -- a couple which may be strong --
   should persist across East Texas and into Louisiana through the end
   of the period.

   ..Goss.. 03/19/2022
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In addition to the frighteningly large D3 hatched, the D4 wording is pretty gnarly as well. Already talk of SigTors:

 

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 190900
   SPC AC 190900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/TUE...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global
   models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of
   potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf
   Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday.  This includes a reasonable
   probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over
   central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday.

   As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains
   region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and
   upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas
   across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. 
   The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with
   height falls within high-end parameter space for significant
   tornadoes.

   In addition, the strong low-level southerlies will persistently
   advect high theta-e Gulf air (dewpoints averaging in the upper 60s)
   northward into the pre-frontal warm sector, which -- despite limited
   heating due to cloud cover and potentially ongoing convection in
   some areas -- will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
   to yield what should prove to be ample CAPE at least as far north as
   central Mississippi, and later central Alabama.  

   Overall, given very strong shear, the strength of the upper system,
   and the Gulf warm sector expected inland, a high-end environment
   appears likely to exist across a geographically-focused area
   centered over the central Gulf Coast states, supporting potential
   for a substantial outbreak of severe/supercell storms.

   Severe weather potential will likely continue into Wednesday, though
   the upper system appears likely to become somewhat sheared/elongated
   as the upper low/jet streak shift northeastward across the Ohio
   Valley, while secondary energy digs southward across the southern
   Rockies and into northern Mexico.  Thus, while an amply
   moist/unstable environment and still-strong shear will exist across
   southeastern Alabama/southwestern Georgia/the Florida Panhandle, and
   possibly expanding during the day into parts of South Carolina
   supporting continued potential for severe storms, the risk will be
   lesser than Tuesday's event, and should diminish with time into the
   evening hours.  Still, all-hazards severe weather will be a
   possibility through the first half of the period across this portion
   of the Southeast.

   By Thursday, models begin to diverge in terms of pattern evolution;
   while the cold front may remain onshore, prior to advancing into the
   western Atlantic, prospects for severe weather remain questionable,
   and thus no outlook area will be issued at this time.  Once the
   front moves offshore overnight Thursday, as the upper system shifts
   eastward, severe-weather potential should end over the Southeast. 
   With large-scale ridging to gradually expand across the U.S. into
   the weekend, severe weather potential appears minimal a this time.

   ..Goss.. 03/19/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, D3 & D4 Enhanced Risks, both could go Moderate
  • Iceresistance changed the title to 3/17/2022, 3/21/2022 & 3/22/2022 Severe Weather, Major Tornado Damage in New Orleans

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...