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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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Haven't had time to really look at things up until recently due to a multitude of reasons. Taking a peek at things, here's my one and only call for the storm. Hopefully you guys get a nice pasting tomorrow. I'll check in later in the day after I'm done sleeping. Currently on mid shifts. Enjoy the snow y'all :sled:

Snowfall Forecast 

1-3" for the metros

2-4" for the nearby burbs

4-6" for northern MoCo/Western HoCo up through Carroll County into the Hereford Zone of Balt Co (Areas below 700')

2-5" for rest of HoCo up through southern half of Balt Co

5-8" for areas over 700' along Parrs Ridge including Damascus/Mt Airy/Manchester.

4-7" for all of Frederick/Washington Counties

4-6" for Loudoun Co

2-4" for Fairfax Co

2-4" Northern Harford Co

1-3" Southern Harford Co

3-6" for Winchester up through the WV Panhandle. Iso to 7" on higher ridges 

 

 

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Definitely a step back for the metros on the latest HRRR as far as precip totals after the changeover is concerned versus yesterdays runs. Not a huge difference up here in far N&W areas, but it’s a fairly sizable difference in Baltimore / DC from the naked eye.  
 

00z HRDPS was similar to its previous runs. Gets the cold in there a bit faster than the HRRR and heavier returns hang back to allow some hours of very heavy snow around 14-17z with 5+“ totals near dc / bal proper

…. We’re so close. We’ve got this. 

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Maybe I'm crazy but to go 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

From the map I am looking at there’s 6”+ NW of dc 3-4” over dc then 5-6” se of dc. 

Pivotal?  Because NW actually got drier vs 0z.  DC went from 3 on 0z to 4 inches at 6z.  But meh...don't think it changes the consensus forecast.  I think LWX has it right.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Maybe I'm crazy but to go 

Pivotal?  Because NW actually got drier vs 0z.  DC went from 3 on 0z to 4 inches at 6z.  But meh...don't think it changes the consensus forecast.  I think LWX has it right.

Tropical tidbits. 

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Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
319 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland as well as western
  Loudoun County in Virginia and northern Fauquier County in
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon. Rain
  will change to snow between 7 AM and 9 AM this morning. A band
  of moderate to heavy snow is most likely through late this
  morning before tapering off to a lighter snow early this
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may be reduced to below one-
  quarter mile at times. Brief near blizzard conditions are
  possible. Snowfall rates around one to two inches per hour are
  expected this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
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