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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

There you go. That's what I was talking about earlier. As you can tell, I am more positive about this event than most of the other ones this season. It's a different track than what we've seen.

My entire school community was on a high from the record warm day today. I ruined it when I kept sharing that snow was possible several times this week. Muwahahahaha.....everyone here knows me as the "crazy guy who loves snow."

Yeah. It’d be great to get a more classic LP coming from the south. If nothing else, it’ll take a lot more work for it to arrive in Jamestown. Didn’t we have one do that? Lol

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

138 hours is fantasy especially on the gfs. 

I disagree. There will certainly be a powerful east coast storm this weekend so it’s not just some over amplified solution at hour 288 that completely disappears on the next run never to be seen again. This storm is well within range of the models. It obviously won’t be that deep but the ingredients for a big one are all there. 

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19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Can’t copy/paste it right now but BUF’s late evening disco is an interesting read. “Potent”, “phase” and “”bomb” all included in the same paragraph. They’re clearly on notice. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday looks like the calm before the storm...at least the first
half the day.  Several pieces spread out over portions of the conus
that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend
storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the
southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a
potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking
southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high
moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee
Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low
pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the
southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the
GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the
area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western
side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the
Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly
strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out.
Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee
Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is
suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance
is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the
GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over
ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs.
snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For
now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of
a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late
Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to
this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the
different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause
significant changes to the forecast.
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Storm has crazy potential if it phases correctly. We have a beautiful high coming in from Canada with plenty of cold air and we have a northern jet storm and a southern jet storm all coming together. Lots of moving pieces, a strong storm is almost a guarantee. But we likely see many dramatic changes the next few days.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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The snow lingers south of Lake Ontario with a moist cyclonic flow into Sunday at 957 mb. All the :weenie:

If what the GFS depicts happens all those in Central NY will remember this storm for quite some time. You can ignore the QPF outputs at this time, that track of storm system with the warm lake temps would absolute be dumping on Rochester-SYR corridor.

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

 

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48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I hear a whole field of crickets ATM…

I'm busy looking out the window trying to find the 2 to 3 inches of failed lake effect snow I was supposed to get....

NW wind...yet again.....Lake enhanced snow and Triple lake connection on a WNW flow seem to be the only thing lakes provide here.

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8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm busy looking out the window trying to find the 2 to 3 inches of failed lake effect snow I was supposed to get....

NW wind...yet again.....Lake enhanced snow and Triple lake connection on a WNW flow seem to be the only thing lakes provide here.

Lol..Yeah that's what happens when they ride the rgem every event..

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Friday starts off dry, then later Friday, approaching mid-level
trough and upper level jet could bring some showers into western NY
to North Country. Cold front tied to the mid-level trough crosses
region on Friday night. Then, southern stream trough lifts across
Ohio Valley and arrives over the Northeast. Extent of phasing
between these two troughs dictates how far west primary deepening
sfc low tracks late Friday night into Saturday. Trend on most
guidance now is for the phasing to occur later and thus, the sfc low
is farther east on almost all guidance compared to what was shown 24-
48 hr ago. So, quicker change to snow Friday night. Now, even though
that primary sfc low is east, there is a signal of stripe of
moderate to heavy snow farther west along the cold front and due to
forcing from the northern branch trough. Will need to continue to
monitor the trends as this system could produce several inches of
accumulating snow and also gusty west-northwest winds on Saturday as
the deepening system lifts across New England and very chilly air
for this time of year pours across the lower Great Lakes region.
There remains a lot of moving parts in how this system ultimately
works out across the region. Any changes in the specific portions of
this system has the potential to cause significant changes to the
forecast, so stay tuned
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17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Will need to continue to
monitor the trends as this system could produce several inches of
accumulating snow and also gusty west-northwest winds on Saturday as
the deepening system lifts across New England and very chilly air
for this time of year pours across the lower Great Lakes region.

This would be the FIRST WNW lake enhanced event with a Low pressure here in 3 years. There's been some N and NW events...but not the WNW that provide for snow desert of the Cuse. Hopefully we can get this to happen.

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10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

6z GFS was much less impressed. Later phase. Stringy mess. It finally gets its act together but too far ne. A possibility. The ICON was a massive bomb.

Yeah, I saw that late development. Definitely a possibility. Hopefully not. We've had bad luck with timing of systems developing too quickly or too slowly.

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