A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Train trying to set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 STWatch issued till 3am CDT/4am EDT -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0432.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 805 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells will continue to develop this evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois, and eventually northwest Indiana/southern Lake Michigan. Storms may merge into a linear east/southeastward-moving cluster by late evening, with increasing potential for damaging winds and possibly an embedded brief tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Dubuque IA to 50 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Not sure if this stuff to the north will build down this way. I look at the radar and think it will, and then I look again and think it won't. Probably gonna be a close call either way. Radar has a 6/13 vibe with current position of storms and movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Outflow getting out farther ahead now, so not sure how long the storms themselves will maintain a severe threat. Wonder what the winds are like with that gust front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 As the MCS moved through, had peak wind gusts of 55MPH ORD, 51MPH MDW and 50-60MPH here at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure if this stuff to the north will build down this way. I look at the radar and think it will, and then I look again and think it won't. Probably gonna be a close call either way. Radar has a 6/13 vibe with current position of storms and movement. Some newer development ensures that it will make it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup. An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 was looking at the same thing, looks prime there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup. An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place. They just did on the 1630z OTLK and large 30 wind hatched with 45 wind as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening. ...SD to IA and southern MN... An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Jesus Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 SDC045-049-059-069-107-119-051730- /O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-220705T1730Z/ Edmunds SD-Hand SD-Sully SD-Hyde SD-Faulk SD-Potter SD- 1203 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...NORTHWESTERN HAND...NORTHEASTERN SULLY... NORTHERN HYDE...FAULK AND EASTERN POTTER COUNTIES... At 1203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brentwood Colony to 11 miles north of Holabird, moving east at 40 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR NORTHERN HYDE COUNTY. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe storms will be near... Brentwood Colony around 1210 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Norbeck, Blumengard Colony and Faulkton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4469 9983 4530 9961 4529 9889 4451 9932 TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 280DEG 34KT 4517 9936 4469 9956 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 this large storm has already produced 90mph wind gusts at 16:26z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Got a feeling this bow echo has some surprises in store. Our mets this morning weren't very enthusiastic on the severe potential for our area (in line with SPC). However most models seem to have the instability gradient right across southern Wisconsin. Had an enjoyable little chase yesterday, following the lead cell from near Orfordville to near Beloit. Showed some supercell characteristics visually and on radar. Didn't realize "Ryan Hall, Y'all" had chasers active in WI, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. DSLR pics later. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 instability gradient really is a thing of beauty on this one hope we some 100+ from sioux falls and n ia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Derecho composite up to 6 for Chi town area. That cluster of storms looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: This is why BAM is and always has been terrible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 the animation lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 I suddenly feel the urge to go down a slide. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Too bad you've been banned from every water park in the tri-state area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 tough but fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Mitchell SD had max wind gust 65 kt (74.7 mph) Quote METAR: KMHE 051953Z AUTO 36041G65KT 3SM TSRA BR 21/19 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 01065/1952 WSHFT 1934 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB10B33 TSB02 SLP106 P0090 T02060189 $ possible tornado at Salem SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Water parks aren't much of an upgrade from public pools, at least around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Mitchell SD had max wind gust 65 kt (74.7 mph) possible tornado at Salem SD Quite the inflow notch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 SPC 20Z outlook explicitly mentions this complex is expected to affect southern WI, but they steadfastly refused to increase our probabilities. 30% hatched extended to MS River, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Days like this are just the best 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Watch likely for S. WI/N. IL/north-central to northeastern Iowa:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1382.html@cyclone77, @hawkeye_wx, @hlcater still getting left out. @A-L-E-K and the rest of the Chicago crowd are in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, iluvsnow said: This made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Iowa Southwest to south-central Minnesota Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Long-lived bowing MCS across southeast South Dakota will spread east-southeast across parts of eastern Nebraska, western and central Iowa and far southern Minnesota with severe wind gusts. Additional cells ahead of it will pose a threat for hail and wind. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Denison IA to 40 miles southeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 hours ago, iluvsnow said: They're not entirely wrong about the potential with this setup, but using words such as "likely," predicting 90-100 MPH winds and using those terrible graphics is definitely laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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